US-Mexico relations: AMLO’s refusal to congratulate Biden

President López Obrador’s (AMLO) decision not to congratulate Joe Biden and Kamala Harris is domestically being used to support President Trump’s unsupported claims of electoral fraud. The government of Mexico will now have to deal with both its unwillingness to acknowledge the seemingly irreversible victory of the Democratic ticket, and the unintended consequence of helping President Trump’s allegations of fraud.

After Biden’s inauguration, Mexican diplomats will attempt to explain to its American counterparts that Mexico had been the constant target of the Trump administration, and the lack of an official declaration from the authorities and President Trump’s unwillingness to concede, made it impossible for AMLO to congratulate Biden.

Later on, AMLO will ask Mexican diplomats to emphasize his government’s commitment with Mexico’s dear foreign affair’s principle of non-intervention in the domestic affairs of others. This, as an unconvincing attempt to ask for reciprocity, even if, by doing so, it acknowledges Mexico’s weakness. The same fragility that was displayed when the Trump administration got Mexico to militarize its southern border through threats.

The Democrats would have certainly appreciated a timely congratulatory note from the Mexican president. But given the different political styles and agendas of Biden and AMLO, the two leaders were never going to forge a friendship like the one that Biden and Trudeau will likely achieve.

The new bilateral relationship will not be significantly harmed by AMLO’s stumble. Biden’s administration will certainly be much less focused on rhetoric than Trump’s, and the State department is very much aware of President Lopez Obrador’s lack of dexterity in international affairs.

AMLO will seek to keep the US as far as possible to protect his domestic agenda but once in office, he will try to keep Biden and his administration as happy as possible. He sees this as a new burden given that he believed to have Trump under control after conceding on his demands to stop immigration. In the following days I will continue to share thoughts on the various paths the bilateral relation can take with Biden in office.