US-Mexico relations: Why would AMLO prefer Trump?
In my last telegram, I suggested that AMLO thought that Trump’s re-election was a safer, more manageable and less distracting option for Mexico. After the negotiation and signature of the USMCA, the size of the threat that Trump posed to Mexico diminished. Of course, as long as the government could keep the White House happy with its cooperation on immigration.
In the last couple of years, and under pressure from Washington D.C., the Mexican government deployed the National Guard to its southern border and set up the “Remain in Mexico” program which was controversial back in the U.S. However, neither of these actions generated a political backlash for AMLO domestically. His administration considered them a fair price to pay keep Trump both away from Mexican Politics, and from threatening with tariffs.
Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard built good relationships with Jared Kushner, VP Pence and Secretary Pompeo. After conceding on the migration agenda, the Foreign Secretary felt that he could comfortably manage another four years of Trump on the basis of these relationships and the shift of focus away from Mexico.
Also, Trump and AMLO were aligned on some key issues. First and foremost, they both believe their domestic agendas need to be defended from global pressures. Their energy and environmental policies, although different, made a good fit as both presidents favored the development of carbon-based energy and are highly skeptical of transitions to clean energy.
The Mexican government signed the new USMCA at a time in which they believed that Trump was headed towards winning his reelection smoothly. Only, in the last few months this prediction changed. The new treaty includes a chapter on the environment which would have remained innocuous under Trump, but could be used by Biden to oblige the Mexican administration to considerably change the direction of its energy policy.
In my next telegram I will present some key takeaways to understand how topics will change and weigh differently in the bilateral relation with Biden in the White House. Stay tuned.
