Autonomous Vehicles

History: Decades Ago

The history of self-driving cars is actually much longer than you might think. As early as the 1920s, driverless cars were known as phantom cars. This type of model was remote controlled by tapping a telegraph key. Even though phantom cars were not computer based cars, they still had a “person operating the car [who] would often follow in a second vehicle some distance behind; or, in at least one case, in a low-flying airplane, according to a 1932 account in the Times Recorder of Zanesville, Ohio.” According to Fabian Kröger, who is a “historian of technology and cultural researcher, specialized in the field of mobility studies,” “From 1931 to 1949, [the radio engineer J.J.] Lynch gave demonstrations of the remote-controlled vehicle in 37 of the 48 US states.” “He manipulated the brakes, steering wheel and horn of the vehicle driving in front of him with the aid of a morse key. A spherical antenna received the code, although there are also reports of a wire between the vehicles.” It is important to note that during this time the Great Depression hit, radio was universal, and a lot of families leaned towards radio for entertainment and news. Once people started to know more about autonomous vehicles, it really shifted people’s perspective on focusing on a more futuristic technology. However, the history of autonomous vehicles has had a complex, rough start. Here is a chronological order of events that have happened since the phantom car was presented to the public.

In the 1930s, Norman Bel Geddes presented an infamous design called “Futurama” that was showcased at New York World’s Fair in 1939. According to Paul Goldberger, a writer for Vanity Fair, “The Futurama was a gargantuan model of the postwar city as Bel Geddes — and presumably GM — envisioned it: wide freeways with cloverleaf intersections, handsome and sleek skyscrapers, everything big and shiny and full of movement.”

Build GM Futurama for NY Worlds Fair

Thus, in creating an insight to the future, and present day, modern design of our cities. Goldberger also states that “an advertising campaign Bel Geddes produced for Shell Oil in 1937 called “City of Tomorrow,” which was intended to promote the use of gasoline by showing the magnificent world that the automobile would bring forth.” This is important to note because this foreshadows the future of transportation designs we have today in our society. Geddes was, along with several other prominent figures like “Henry Dreyfuss, Russel Wright, Walter Dorwin Teague, and Raymond Loewy, among” “the first generation of industrial designers.” In the 1940s, Bel Geddes book, “Magic Motorways” (1940), inspired the design of interstate highways, including safety features for the advent of cars, and more, which later became a reality in the 1960s. In the 1950s, RCA (Radio Corporation of America) engineers made it possible to test drive this theory, which lead to the “automatic highway of the future being successfully illustrated by RCA and the State of Nebraska on October 10, 1957, on a 400-foot strip of public highway on the outskirts of Lincoln.” RCA engineers used “sensors on their front bumpers to detect an electrical cable embedded in the road. The cable carried signals warning of obstructions ahead (like road work or a stalled vehicle), and the car could autonomously apply its brakes or switch lanes as necessary. A special receiver on the dashboard would interrupt the car’s own radio to announce information about upcoming exits.” This study continued in the 1960s, with Robert E. Fenton and Karl W.Olson who were “two engineers at Ohio State University who were working on ways to make vehicles operate autonomously when traveling on major highways.” Fenton and Olson introduced computer microcircuits and highway based sensors idea to be installed on cars. However, investment costs and other unknown reasons provided an obstacle. Furthermore, “enthusiasts of artificial intelligence (AI) on computers began dreaming of cars smart enough to navigate ordinary streets on their own. The challenges were daunting — essentially to reverse-engineer the relevant systems in a moving animal like a cockroach:

1) Sensing 2) Processing (modeling the outside world, making decisions) 3) Reacting, with appropriate movement The first and last steps were feasible with known technology. The unknown part was the processing, the machine intelligence needed in between.”

This lead to a major shift in the 1980s. “Early AI pioneers dreamed of breakthroughs that would bring human-like robots by the millennium. But real progress was more incremental than revolutionary. In the 1980s, German pioneer Ernst Dickmanns got a Mercedes van to drive hundreds of highway miles autonomously, a tremendous feat especially with the computing power of the time. Around the world, dozens of other pioneers added their own improvements.”

Core Components

Autonomous vehicles in general solve issues “like traffic delays and traffic collisions caused by driver error” and would also bring to the table “all sorts of new and exciting applications for a variety of industries, like shipping, transportation, and emergency transportation.”

Here is an example how autonomous vehicles would operate if it became universal:

In order to understand how autonomous vehicles operate there are levels of autonomy to understand first. In this chart below, we will see how the levels of autonomy on a vehicle affect the complete control or assistance of a human being:

Here is a depiction of an autonomous vehicle in an environment:

According to Landmark Dividend, the “Self-driving vehicles employ a wide range of technologies like radar, cameras, ultrasound, and radio antennas to navigate safely on our roads. In modern autonomous vehicles, these technologies are used in conjunction with one another, as each one provides a layer of autonomy that helps make the entire system more reliable and robust.” Amnon Shashua, co-founder of Mobile Eye CTO stated in the interview that there are three key components to building an autonomous car:

1. Sensing (which is interpreting what is on the road)

2. Logistical (mapping the surrounding/environment, thus, creating high definition maps)

3. The most “crucial element to the success of autonomous cars is, in Shashua’s words, “the reason we take driving lessons.” “Mobileye’s tertiary mission is to help driverless cars understand how traffic rules and driving habits change from place to place.”

Here is a more in depth look at how it looks in a car:

Diffusion

Autonomous vehicles are predicted to have “high growth potential and are acting as a catalyst in technological developments of automobiles.” According to Grand View Research, “The global self-driving cars and trucks market size is expected to be approximately 6.7 thousand units in 2020 and is anticipated to expand at a CAGR of 63.1% from 2021 to 2030.” The chart below shows the forecast development of autonomous vehicles in the future:

However, it is important to keep in mind that the diffusion of innovations has to go through “five perceived characteristics”:

1. Relative Change: “assesses the merits of innovations in relation to the idea, practice, or object it is to replace.”
2. Compatibility; “refers to an innovation’s fit with a social group’s existing norms, values, and attitudes.”
3. Complexity: “describes the level of proficiency needed to comprehend the workings of a technology and use it with ease. People will be more likely to adopt technologies that are transparent in their functions and benefits than those that are difficult to operate.”
4. Trial ability: “Lets potential adopters reduce the uncertainty associated with the innovation and gather evidence about its value and associated potential risks through hands-on experience.”
5. Observability: “which refers to the visibility of the innovation itself and its benefits to other members of the social group.”

This will influence the adoption process to fit the needs of people in the society. Quan- Haase states that there are “five distinct stages:

1. Knowledge
2. Persuasion
3. Decision
4. Implementation
5. Confirmation

All of these characteristics and stages will determine the success of self-driving vehicles.

Societal Effects

Enhancement- What does the new tool improve or enhance, make possible or accelerate?

Autonomous vehicles enhance many things from mobility to reducing stress being on the road. Important features that autonomous cars have nowadays include the following:

• Automatic lane-centering
• Adaptive cruise control
• Self-parking capabilities
• Automatic forward-collision breaking
• Sign recognition/ Steering assist

These features help make roads safer and lower the rate of collisions because, according to the Minnesota Department of Safety, traffic fatalities from human error have increased by six percent from 2017 to 2018. In 2018, there were 381 fatalities in Minnesota. “Of the 381 fatalities, 84 were known to be drunk-driving related, 113 were known to be speed related, 29 were known to be distracted driving related, 96 involved unbelted motorists.” Another point to think about is that if the adoption of self-driving cars becomes accepted, businesses and government will save millions of dollars on health care, car insurance, loss of life, productivity, and even reduce strains on hospitals and their resources. Another area in which autonomous driving will help society concerns people with disabilities, and elderly who can’t drive will be able to transport themselves in a safe environment. According to Ruderman Family Foundation, “When a disability limits transportation options, one’s disability can result in reduced economic opportunities, isolation that exacerbates medical conditions or leads to depression, and an overall diminished quality of life.” An important factor that we need to consider as well, is that autonomous cars will help lower harmful vehicle emissions. According to General Motors 2018 safety report, “Vehicles release almost 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year,” and therefore contribute to global warming, along with the myriad adverse effects of breathing the particulate which conventional gasoline engines emit. Another point to consider is that self-driving cars would recognize the fastest possible routes, and would thus optimize productivity for both business and personal travel. Being able to simply be in a car without concerning oneself with the driving and navigation aspects, would allow people to both travel farther, and indulge in the activity with far greater frequency. In this way, the autonomous car would push people towards a new neotribalism by encouraging greater connection between individuals and their most highly desirable social groups. This type of technology can also decrease interactions between people of different socioeconomic backgrounds in mass transit siruations. People would not have to worry about riding busses or trains at all for that matter. A very high number of people would have to retrain for other careers because driving as a profession would virtually disappear.

Obsolescence- What old tool was obsolesced by the new tool?

The revolutionary self-driving vehicles have many positive aspects to them, however there are a couple of things that autonomous cars make obsolete. Autonomous cars would eliminate:

• Navigation skills
• Lose touch with driving skills
• Lose physical skills related to scanning the car’s surrounding environment and using trained reflex responses to appropriately control the velocity and path of the vehicle.
• Possibility to lose awareness of the surrounding environment which would later impact how individuals perceive reality around them, and their sense of their place in the physical world.
• Would lower anxiety levels in an anxious individual while being in a car
• Provide a safer way to travel
• Include more comfortable seating and related amentities

Retrieval- What earlier obsolesced tool is brought back into play and becomes an essential part of new tool?

The first factor that autonomous vehicles retrieve back is interconnectedness. Many people waste a lot of time driving especially while commuting to and from work, school, etc. Autonomous cars gives individuals options to get together more and not have to worry too much about their safety. Autonomous vehicles would encourage individuals to have more personal contact with other people in different states. This also means local communities, family gatherings, and faith institutions would have more interactions with people and create a sense of unity among communities.

Reversal- When carried to full potential, the new tool will reverse its original characteristics. What would be the potential reversal of the new tool?

Even though autonomous vehicle’s would promote more interconnectedness, they could also lead to isolation. Individuals completely lose their ability to be aware of surroundings and become in a way, dependent on a virtual reality. Being immersed in a technology reality would have repercussions that would impact people’s lifestyles. It could also increase marginalization by exaggerating economical and societal status among people. If autonomous cars were to become normalized, who would have access to these cars? This would create an inequality in mobility within our society. It is important to note that disparities would be highly visible among communities who may or may not have access to this type of technology. It is important to understand that we are already a segregated society based on race and economics. This could reduce our contact with people who are not like us beyond what we are already experiencing. Such a shift would exacerbate the already critical nature of the fractures and rifts in our society, leading in turn to a further destabilization of the social order.

Overall, autonomous vehicles would open different possibilities for individuals to travel and experience the world. People would be able to discover beautiful places and cost of transportation would be reduced substantially. It would also be a new way to experience technology with new gadgets and trends surging ahead in different ways to maximize the utility of time spent in a car. It is important to note that this would only move forward in concert with the manner in which society would portray self-driving cars, and the technological innovations which accompanied its newfound hegemony. Quan-Haase states that “critical theory suggests that technology is the product of both technical and social factors. Technology is not simply a means of satisfying goals but a process that directs a specific mode of living and understanding. Technology is not viewed as a symbol of linear progress, rather, as an element capable of adopting different possibilities and directions depending on the social influences and values of its users.”

Forecasted Effects

Mass adoption of autonomous cars would represent a gargantuan shift in the transportation sector in particular, and in society at large. Based on what I have learned, this will create a more efficient, safe, relaxed, and accessible environment. With that said, there are a number of caveats. One such area would be the risks in the cybersecurity arena, including both the privacy concerns and the safety of individual and corporate entities using the technology. The creation of a centralized database to track people’s movements would have enormous implications pertaining to the issue of privacy. There could be potential intrusiveness from marketers, criminal elements, and governments both foreign and domestic. Some criminal elements would include hacking, knowing detailed personal information, could potentially steal your identity, and would be able to track people’s movements which can increase opportunities for violent crimes or opportunity for property theft. Depending on what power system the car operates on, it could have hardware and software malfunctions. For example, it could lead to vulnerable people being stranded in the event of a technological failure. At its most catastrophic, an event such as a massive solar flare could knock out the power and communication systems integral to the operation of such vehicles. How would all the stranded people get back to the safety of their homes? Adopting autonomous cars could have these and other potential risks, so it is important to ask questions about them and to be aware of these issues. I would even recommend to practice driving once in a while to not lose the skill. In addition, there would be fewer to none traffic stop related police shootings and high speed chases can be eliminated. Overall, autonomous cars hold tremendous promise for improvements in the areas of traffic control, mobility for everyone, offer less pollution, and safety, but, could have unintended effects of social inclusivity, privacy, and cybersecurity.

In summation, the massive introduction of autonomous vehiclesas the new primary mode of transportation holds both great promise, and plenty of peril. The way forward in the mass adoption of this technology is anything but clear. There are plenty of potential pitfalls, both in the technology itself, and in the impacts on individuals and society. If we are to successfully navigate this change, and realize the full potential of autonomous vehicles, we must be prudent, and persistent in identifying solutions to the inevitable problems as they appear during the course of this new period in human transportation.

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