Tetrad Analysis of Autonomous Automobiles

Abbie Frahm, Boston Droel, Elena Matta, Jenna Schrader, & Tsion Teshome

History and Core Components

Movies and shows have often represented technologies like flying cars and self-driving — autonomous — vehicles as a thing of the future, but it looks like ‘the future’ is now. Before diving into the history and core components of autonomous vehicles, it is important to define the term autonomous. Anabel Quan-Haase defines the term as follows, “the capability of a technology to independently act within a selected environment,” Quan-Haase continues to describe it as “technology guided by its own internal logic” (2016). Another source defines full automation, in terms of cars, as “the full performance of driving by an automated system under all roadway and environmental conditions that can also be managed by a human driver, but human intervention is not needed” (Wired. 2016). Take a look at the following chart to see different levels of automation.

Chart 1.

(Wired. 2016)

Autonomous vehicles (AV) have shaped the world of technology and transportation. The goals of this invention include reducing crashes, energy consumption, pollution, and costs of congestion (Anderson et.al., 2014). Similarly to any other contemporary technology, what we now imagine as an autonomous vehicle has not always been the case. While very basic blueprints of autonomous vehicles date all the way back to da Vinci’s self-propelled cart in the 16th century, the development of what is now autonomous cars has taken leaps and bounds within the last 90 years (Wired, 2016). One development within the last century that has really influenced today’s autonomous technology is the development of autopilot technologies in aircrafts, which according to wired was developed due to extended airtime (2016). This technology was developed for the exploration of different planets, this further lead to Tsukuba developing autonomous vehicles that drove about 20 mph (2016). According to Anderson, currently, private companies have advanced AVs like Google’s driverless car initiative, which has created/tested cars and begun campaigns to demonstrate how the technology works (2014). In 2013 Audi, Toyota, and Nissan revealed their AV visions and research opportunities at the International Consumer Electronics Show (2014). This development ultimately lead to the creation of different autonomous drones, and ultimately the first fully autonomous car by TESLA (Wired. 2016). Look at image 1 for a timeline:

Image 1

(Wired. 2016).

One core component in the development and use of autonomous cars is the use of lidar technology. John Joseph discusses the difference between the use of a combination of technologies — radar, sonar, and video processing — and the use of lidar technologies. By themselves, the radar, sonar, and video processing are limited; “ Radar and sonar lack the accuracy of object positioning and spatial resolution that can enable better software-controlled decision making. The cameras are limited by environmental factors, such as a bright flash of sunlight, nighttime conditions, or a tunnel” (Joseph, 2015). According to Anderson, the AV uses advanced sensors to get information about the world, which then relies on sophisticated algorithms to process sensor data and control the car. It is stated, “It then uses computational power to run them in real time” (Anderson et.al., 2014). The sensors used include line detection and ranging, radar, cameras, ultrasonic and infrared (2014). These sensors are used in combination in order to make up for any weakness that a sensor can have alone. The car will use GPS and inertial navigation systems (2014). The use of lidar “light detection and ranging” allows for “accurate and high spatial resolution data and can be a fallback system in the case of video sensor saturation or low-resolution radar reflections or confusion” (Joseph, 2015). Lidar is the use of lasers to sense what is surrounding the lidar device/technology (Wired, 2016). The use of these lasers has been immensely helpful in the development and use of autonomous cars because it is allowing for safer, more accurate transportation, especially when used in combination with radar devices and video processing.

Diffusion

Everett M. Rogers was one of the most influential communication theorists and sociologists in American history. Arguably his most famous contribution to the field was his book, Diffusions of Innovations, which was published in 1962. According to his theory explained throughout this book, diffusion is the process of an innovation being spread throughout various channels (Hoffmann, 2018). The communication of new ideas, practices, or technology is the primary focus of this concept. As these new innovations are communicated, they are accepted adopted depending on five proposed factors. These factors are the relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability (Gourville, 2006).

Factors directly influencing the adoption rate of innovative technology, such as autonomous automobiles, are important to consider as we analyze the diffusion rate of technology. Reilly Jackson Umberger provides a very detailed examination of autonomous automobiles in the light of these five key factors. Umberger discovers that the relative advantages of the adoption of these vehicles include benefits to social status, economic profitability, productivity while commuting, and savings in infrastructure. He discovers that compatibility exists in terms of consumer needs such as safety. Compatibility even exists in terms of the government’s need to reduce infrastructure spending, as AVs can travel closer to one another. However, Umberger points out that AVs are currently facing incompatibility with current road conditions, as “above average road conditions and an extensive mapping system are required.” Moving on to complexity, the consumers will be able to adapt to the technology because the AVs do the work for them. He writes, “Autonomous cars remove the complexity of navigating and avoiding traffic and add the simplicity of sitting in peace.” Lastly, prototypes and trials give the technology opportunity for trialability and observability. With that said, the five considerations seem to point out almost exclusively advantages for autonomous automobiles (Umberger, 2015).

Adoption rates for partially or fully autonomous vehicles are growing as the technology continues to be developed. Vehicles containing only partially autonomous features are predicted to have higher rates of demand. According to growth rates, “By 2025, the car market for partially autonomous vehicles is expected to be at 36 billion U.S. dollars while the market for fully autonomous vehicles lags behind at 6 billion U.S. dollars,” (Statista, n.d.). The diffusion of this technology also shows a worldwide scope.

The graph shown above is proof that the United States is just one of many countries showing interest. Investors, car manufacturers, delivery services, and individuals across all borders are excited about these developments. “In China, Daimler has been granted a license to test its self-driving cars on Beijing’s public roads while in the United States, about 50 companies are testing autonomous vehicles in California,” (McCarthy, 2018). The same source explains that the Netherlands and Singapore were the two nations that are best prepared to harness autonomous automobile technology due to their current strides, legislature, infrastructure, and consumer acceptance (2018).

It is also interesting to consider the ages of potential consumers who are willing to adopt this technology. MIT published the data displayed in the graph above in 2018. This shows that respondents ages 35–44 reported the largest percentage of positive responses in using autonomous vehicles. The next eldest age group, ages 45–54, reported the lowest percentage of willingness to use the technology.

Perhaps much of the acceptance rates depend on the consumer’s perception of safety, as Umberger proposes. The graph below demonstrates that, in all countries surveyed, the perception of safety has increased over the last year. This will lead to greater diffusion of autonomous automobile innovations, as it benefits the five factors Rogers proposes in his Diffusions of Innovations Theory.

Societal Effects

When it comes to how a certain technology will affect society, Autonomous Automobiles is one that seems to have an infinite number of solutions to everyday problems. From drunk driving to simpler delivery, the possibilities are never-ending when thinking about this subject. To give an overview of how a specific technology truly affects the world around us, we must first break it down into four categories known as McLuhan’s Tetrad.

(Ambient. 2010.)

The first category talks of what the technology enhances. What does this technology enhance or improve that is already a part of our society. The very obvious enhancement that this technology offers is ease of transportation. Transportation has brought upon many issues to society, drunk drivers, traffic, expensive tolls, etc. Many of these issues can easily be taken away with this new technology, thus the enhancement of the ease of transportation. Even though the technology is very new and has yet to completely present itself in today’s society, we are seeing the birth of fully Autonomous Automobiles today. Ford is already partnering up with companies like Dominos and Walmart, as well as testing their self-driving cars in Miami since early 2018. In addition, GM has partnered with delivery service Doordash, as they also test their autonomous automobiles (Hawkins). The food delivery industry could be changed entirely, but what stood out more was how these autonomous automobiles could help in a safety standpoint. In 2014, Uber came to Austin, Texas. That same year, DWI arrests dropped by 16%; when Uber was introduced in Seattle, DUI arrests dropped by 10% (Feeney). Uber has given many people an easier way to get around without driving or struggling to find a Taxi, but the main issue is their sometimes-expensive rides due to the company needing to pay so many drivers. With cars becoming autonomous, this price could drop by at least 25% (Griswold). With such a price drop, we could see this percentage of drunk drivers drop even further, as people would need to pay less and less for a ride, giving more incentive to take the safe way home.

The second question looks at what the new technology erodes or makes obsolete. When looking at this, we must think of what would cease to be necessary. Without drivers, the need for traditional taxis and buses may plummet. As stated earlier, without needed driver companies in the transportation industry will have no employee salary expenses. This not only helps the companies but also the customers. Without spending so much on employees, the companies will be able to lower the cost of their services, bringing in more and more customers. With Uber bringing more convenient trips from your smartphone and a usually less pricey ride, we can already see the classic yellow taxicab companies struggling to find customers (Crudele). Now, looking towards the near future, it looks as if Uber (if no autonomous cars are implemented in their company) will suffer losses due to new companies being cheaper, and the traditional yellow taxicab companies could become obsolete.

The third question covers what of the new technology is retrieved from older technology. Autonomous automobiles have come from a long line of technologies that converge into one. Firstly, the amount of different technologies that are not being used for these cars are of many and much variety. There are radar sensors that keep the car in its lane as well as a safe distance from each car, navigational sensors that keep the car going where needed and noticing stop lights and signs on the road, many other computer-run technologies to direct the car, and all other components of any other car we have seen before (Armstrong). With the main technology that controls the car being the central computer system, it seems as if much of this new technology is retrieving the technology of some of the more advanced cruise controls in a limited amount of cars today, like the ones Tesla has developed. Tesla has a new package on their cars that includes Autosteer, Autopark, and Traffic-Aware Cruise Control. What this means is that, if set in a certain mode, you can command your car to control the steering to keep you in a lane, park on its own, and accelerate and break on its own while being aware of the cars ahead of them to avoid a collision (Lambert). The capabilities of these cars are more than likely what has sparked the technology that is being put into these fully autonomous cars.

(Davies. 2017.)

The fourth, and final, question of McLuhan’s Tetrad looks at the possible reversal of this new technology. What is the thing that, upon reaching its full potential, the technology will reverse its original characteristics and turn into that it wasn’t intended for? With this technology being so new and still in trial and development, this is a very hard question to answer. Another reason this is hard to answer is because of the wide variety of intended uses for these autonomous vehicles. They are intended to aid delivery, traffic, bad emissions, drunk driving, and other accidents, and many more, so to think of the characteristics of these reversing the vehicles into an unintended use is hard to imagine. One of the things that I could see this technology reversing into is for a city tour. Upon reaching its full potential, I believe the possibilities of what this technology could reverse into is seemingly endless. One of the possibilities is for these autonomous automobiles to flip into other autonomous mediums of transportation. It could be fathomable that people would push the boundaries of this technology to reach new heights of autonomous innovation.

The technology of autonomous automobiles will definitely change the way we see a part of the world when it comes to social, cultural, political, and economic norms and ideas. This aligns well with the Technological Determinism. Fully autonomous automobiles will have an immense effect on how these four subjects change in our society. I believe that, at its full potential, we could see autonomous automobiles eliminate parking garages, or at least many of them. Parking spaces will be minimum, and most likely only be allowed for use for pickup/drop-off or short-term parking. Assuming that these cars will be fully autonomous, once they drop you off at work they could drive back to your home until you call it back with a phone or something. Therefore there will be no need for massive parking garages on each street in a big city; it is probable that the only parking would be short-term small lots or a massive parking area near or outside of each city. This clearing of parking lots will bring many new opportunities for real estate and bring many more businesses and homes into the cities, drastically affecting the economy at this point in time, showing how the Technological Determinism Theory playing out.

This new technology could drastically push further the already wide economic inequality. With autonomous automobiles, it will be quicker to get from place to place, causing the city to more than likely expand. This expansion will cause the richer suburb-residents to move even farther away from the city. “In the mid-1800s, omnibuses allowed households to move out from city centers to inner-ring suburbs; at the turn of the 20th century, streetcars paved the way for suburbs; and in the middle of 20th century, personal cars and the new interstate highway system created the vast commuter suburbs we know today”(McLaughlin). As transportation technologies progress, more and more people are able to move farther out of the city, for the costs of doing so decrease. Getting out of the city and into the suburbs comes with the incentives of less busy roads, safer areas, and more room for children to play. If this continues (as it will with autonomous automobiles) we will see the city once again expand, and see a farther separation between the haves and have-nots. These new richer suburbs will be the birth of what they call “exurbs”. Driverless cars will cause lower time cost of commuting into the cities and allowing higher-income households to move to places with bigger lots, homes, and less developed areas (McLaughlin). This spreads out the population more geographically, thus a bigger gap in society and economy in the next generation. This massive gap forming as a result of this new technology shows the effects drawn upon in the Technological Determinism Theory.

Forecasted Effects

Autonomous vehicles no matter what environment they are in will cause positive and negative effects. As already mentioned on the positive side, it will lower transportation cost into and out of cities but, will also increase the gap in society even more on the negative side (McLaughlin). In Litman’s predictions of Autonomous Vehicles, he lays out these two sides to autonomous vehicles.

Table 1. Autonomous Vehicle Potential Benefits and Costs (Litman, 2014)

As you can see in Table 1, many of the positive benefits autonomous vehicles would bring to society in the adoption process relates to increased safety, reduced costs and increased efficiency (Litman, 2014). This is in contrast to the problems of autonomous vehicles which more relate to security, increased manufacturing costs and reduced employment (Litman, 2014). As you can see above he lists more negatives than positives, but that does not mean that they outweigh the positives.

During his research, Atkinson found several themes that affect the adoption of autonomous vehicles. He piggybacks off of Litman’s research showing both the positive and negatives themes that affect these adoptions. Atkinson gave participants a survey and had them check which factors affected their adoption of autonomous vehicles.

Table 2. Relative Frequency Summary of Negative Factors for Innovation (Atkinson, 2016)

Table 3. Relative Frequency Summary of Positive Factors for Innovation (Atkinson, 2016)

The most frequent negative factor that came about was an individual’s resistance to change (Atkinson, 2016). This has also been a recurring theme with all technology. People are resistant to change due to many of the other negative factors mentioned, many of which are the unknown factors of reliability and safety (Atkinson, 2016). The positive factors mentioned all relate to those we are early to majority adopters. A positive factor becomes positive because of the feedback given by those who have already adopted the technology. People will adopt a technology more if those around those who have adopted it and had a positive experience.

Although these researchers have mentioned many factors that affect the adoption of autonomous vehicles, there was a big factor that neither brought up. The factor that has not yet been mentioned is called disengagement. The California DMV defines disengagements of autonomous vehicles as:

“ […] “disengagement” means a deactivation of the automation mode when a failure of the autonomous technology is detected or when the safe operation of the vehicle requires that the autonomous vehicle test driver disengages the autonomous mode and take immediate manual control of the vehicle.” (CA DMV, 2016).

This is a huge factor to consider because it involves the safety of oneself and others. Knowing that the vehicle could basically shut down is not a characteristic of autonomous vehicles that helps one adopt the technology. Although this is true, it is also important to know that disengagement does not mean a collision had occurred (Favarò, 2017).

There are two different types of disengagement, manual and automated (CA DMV, 2017). Manual disengagements are started due to the driver as a cautionary measure while an automated disengagement are started because of a design limitation of the car (CA DMV, 2017). These design limitations pose a safety threat and therefore the car disengages and gives control back to the driver (CA DMV, 2017). It is nice to know that these autonomous cars have a feature that is available for drivers to take back control when they feel they are in an uncomfortable situation. On the other hand, it is unsettling to know that the car could randomly disengage at any moment. One of the benefits according to Litman is that these autonomous vehicles reduce drivers stress (Litman, 2014). If the driver has to worry about their car disengaging at any moment and actually having to drive that could potentially increase stress.

Figure 1 below shows the breakdown of these vehicles disengagements that have been collected from 2014 to 2016 (CA DMV, 2017). As shown over 50% of the disengagements were due to system failures where the other 48% were due to human or environmental factors (CA DMV, 2017). This negative factor is one to particularly stay updated on when thinking about adopting an autonomous vehicle.

Figure 1. Breakdown of all Reported Disengagements (CA DMV, 2016)

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