Sanders Should Sweep All Three Caucuses Tomorrow
Tomorrow promises to be a big day for Bernie Sanders.
Democratic caucuses will take place in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington tomorrow, March 26th. Though there is little polling information available, a better forecasting tool is indicating a decisive Sanders victory of all three primaries.
Meet PredictIt: The Stock Market for Politics
PredictIt.org is a political futures market. Its traders invest in the outcome of various political events, including primary elections. Share prices have a superior ability to forecast election outcomes than any particular poll. (I’ll be writing about PredictIt in detail later.)
The following is how PredictIt investors anticipate tomorrow’s primaries will turn out.
Washington Caucuses Will See a Massive Sanders Victory
Not only do PredictIt investors anticipate that Bernie Sanders will win the Washington Democratic caucuses, they anticipate he will win by a margin of over ten percentage points.
I trade politic futures on PredictIt frequently and I rarely ever see this kind of market emerge. A 92 cent investor certainty in a > 10 point victory in any caucus indicates that Sanders is sure to win Washington.
Little Love for Clinton in Alaska
Shares in Bernie Sanders have been consistently favored by PredictIt investors by an enormous margin in the Alaskan Democratic caucus market.
Hawaii: Saturday’s Only Possible Battleground
While Sanders is still expected to win Hawaii, PredictIt investor’s have considerably less confidence in the results.
Sanders’ shares are currently valued at 73 cents, last Tuesday he was dead-even with Clinton: 50:50.
Summary and PredictIt Investor Advice
Sanders’ supporters should be having a very joyous Saturday. If the Clinton camp has any shred of hope, they can look for it in the sunny state of Hawaii.
PredictIt traders interested in a “sure thing” can see tiny returns by buying Bernie shares in Alaska and Washington. Hawaii is the only pro-Sanders market which offers any kind of meaningful return on investment.
Alex Marshi is an American writer, comedian, and marketer currently residing in California. Follow him on Twitter (@Alexandermarshi) and visit his satirical news site, Too True News.
