Wisconsin Primary Markets — How to Profit with PredictIt.org
Polls are minutes away from closing, but before results start being counted, I’ll state my predictions of who will win the Wisconsin presidential primaries — and the likely margin of victories. If you believe you can predict the outcome of these races, visit PredictIt.org.
Safe Wisconsin Primary Markets
Cruz is favored to win in Wisconsin on Tuesday. I was lucky enough to buy shares in a Cruz victory when the price was only 60 cents per share, but at the time of this writing, prices are 90 cents per share. However, a 10% return on investment is still a decent gain and in the event that the first votes reported don’t show a huge Cruz lead, causing a brief Cruz share sell-off, shares might be temporarily available at a lower price before ultimately being redeemed for $1 per share when all the votes are counted.
Bernie Sanders is currently valued at 93 cents and by all accounts seems certain to win.
Needless to say, an investment in either of these markets is almost sure to pay out; however, there are two related markets which offer an opportunity to profit in a big way.
Riskier Wisconsin Primary Markets
Two Wisconsin primary markets have emerged: “Will the margin of victory in the Wisconsin Democratic primary exceed 5 percentage points?” and “Will the margin of victory in the Wisconsin Republican primary exceed 8 percentage points?” Let’s see what the pollsters believe the margins of victory will be.
Market Analysis
FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes polls and projects specific vote counts based on those numbers. “Polls-plus forecast” are weighted projections based on FiveThirtyEight’s confidence in particular polls. The “Polls-only forecast” is a direct translation of the aggregate of polls.
While the “Polls-plus” forecast suggests a 11.9% Cruz victory, the polls-only forecast predicts that Cruz will win by only 5.9%.
PredictIt share prices are currently split 52/48 and has experienced a lot of volatility. Its a dangerous market, but potentially quite lucrative.
On the Democratic side, FiveThirtyEight.com predicts a slim margin of victory for Sanders (polls-plus: 1.2%, polls-only 4%).
Contrary to these figures, PredictIt investors are quite confident Sanders will win by more than 5%. Share prices are split 82/18 and are also very volatile.
Considering that not one single vote has been counted yet, investors in this market may meet with a big surprise if Clinton can win at least 47% of the vote. However, considering Sander’s recent momentum, a decisive victory is absolutely a possibility.
Coming up soon…
I’ll be writing about my predictions for the New York primaries soon. Election will take place on April 19th.
