How Morocco wins the bid
Since Canada entered into its partnership with the USSF and Mexican Federation to become junior partners in the USA’s 2026 World Cup bid (let’s be honest here, that’s what Canada and Mexico are here) it has been widely assumed that winning the bid will be a slam dunk for Team CONCACAF.
It probably will be, but that doesn’t change the fact that Morocco has also thrown its hat into the ring. The bid marks the fifth time that the North African country has tried to host the even. It was second in the voting in 1994, 1998 and 2010. The country also bid in 2006, but was a distant last in the voting.
So, hosting a World Cup has always been something that Morocco has coveted. Having the country host has not necessarily been something FIFA has been as enamored with. Although, in fairness, the vote in 1994 could have gone their way in slightly different circumstances.
So, what makes them think they can win now? Up against what many think is a coronation, why would they want to feel the pain of losing a fifth time?
The answer is simple: They believe they will win. Are they delusional? Let’s pretend for a moment that they aren’t. Here are the reasons why Morocco might win.
- FIFA hasn’t really changed
By now we all accept that FIFA was not altogether straightforward in how it dealt with past bids. The ExCo (Executive Committee, or rich, morally flexible men that decided who would host) were open to…let’s call them “gifts of persuasion” in exchange for their votes. That, in turn, has lead us to the harsh reality that we’re going to be playing a World Cup in a desert in five years and where we’re crossing our fingers that maundering hooligans don’t scare everyone away in a year.
The ExCo is gone now, replaced with a one nation, one vote policy and strict rules in place to supposedly eliminate “persuasion.” But, what if those rulres are more of a wink than anything enforceable?
The USA was badly outmaneuvered in the dirty arts category for 2022. Do we think adding Dudley Do Right (Canada, in case that isn’t clear) into the mix is going to help there?
I want to stress that this isn’t a suggestion that Morocco is more likely to engage in that type of behaviour, but rather a suggestion that they are more used to it having bid four previous times. In short they understand how these things work.
2. Geography
This one is pretty simple to understand. The land mass of Canada, the US and Mexico is 21,783,000 sqKM. Even if you take the Canadian north out of the mix you’re still looking at 17,861,567 sqKM spread over six time zones, four of which would be used in the tournament, one of which is eight hours behind GMT.
Morocco is 446,550 sqKM, one time zone which is GMT.
In a tournament that requires teams and fans to move from place to place this is an advantage to the condensed bid. FIFA may not care about the fans, you might argue, but national team coaches might have the ear of FA voters. Those voices might not want to travel from Montreal to Phoenix to play a knock-out game.
3. Geopolitics
Geopolitics is a polite way of saying that most of the world thinks the current American president is, at best, crazy and, at worst, dangerous. Worse for the bid, he’s also natural extension of how they view America.
Anti-American sentiment is a very real problem for any US lead bid for an international event. It’s likely why the US gave up 20 games to Mexico and Canada. The question is whether Canada and Mexico can offset those feelings.
Or…
4. Canada and Mexico
FIFA the old was pretty clear that they weren’t interested in more multi-nation bids. Although the official stance has softened, there is still a question of whether or not they are really ready to go that route again.
It says here that there are at least four or five votes that will go Morocco's way unexpectedly simply because the voters don’t want a multi-country bid.
5. Voting blocks
This goes hand in hand with point one, but if Morocco can successful forge enough alliances then they could find the way to get over the top. Let’s look at how that might play out.
We’re going to assume that Team CONCACAF has the regions 41 votes and that Morocco has Africa’s 56.
Oceania is on record supporting the united bid. So bring CONCACAF up to 55.
UEFA seems likely to go mostly CONCACAF (partly because they’ll want 2030 there), but for the sake of argument lets give the three Iberian votes plus five random, anti-multi host bid votes to Morocco. That puts it 102 CONCACAF, Morocco 64.
That leaves South America and Asia.
Let’s give the 12 Middle East votes to Morocco — 102 to 76. Add North Korea to the “Not USA” vote — 102–77.
It’s not unreasonable to see the six CAFC votes ( Afghanistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) going Morocco’s way — 102–83.
After giving CONCACAF Australia and Japan to make it 104–83, there will be 26 votes that do seem to be up for grabs in Asia plus the 10 in CONMEBOL.
Can Morocco find 29 of those 36 votes (plus get the perfect storm outlined above?). It seems unlikely, but not 100% impossible.
That said, all CONCACAF likely needs to do is solidify the CONMEBOL vote. If it does that it could likely afford to lose all of Asia and still carry the day.
