A million qubits in 2028?
A million qubits in 10 years?!. Source here. The space future could be closer than we think. I am not really familiar with silicon spin qubits so I cannot evaluate how realistic this claim is, but here is what we can expect if its true. Spoiler: I am actually worried by this.
Breaking modern encryption can happen in the several million qubit range if surface codes are utilized for error correction (with a few thousand physical qubits per logical qubit). I thought that wasn’t realistic until 2040 minimum. Quantum futureproofing could become hugely important in the 2020’s. “Quantum Y2K” could happen in the early 2030's.
Efficiently simulating quantum systems, arguably the most revolutionary capability of quantum computers, actually becomes a very realistic prospect long before millions of qubits. We can already simulate very simple molecules (though not yet to quantum chemistry standards) and legitimate commercial applications may be possible in the few hundred qubit range — just a few years away!
Quantum internet infrastructure will also need to experience very rapid development in the 2020’s if we can expect millions of qubits by 2030. Being able to exchange quantum states will become crucial for maximum scientific benefit. How many economists have given thought yet to the quantum economy and how to shape policy around it? I mused about this before. Quantum encryption methods will also need to be widely deployed to create perfect security online, otherwise there will really be a security catastrophe waiting to happen.
Quantum machine learning will unleash the full power of AI. Quantum machine learning can be used to detect patterns that digital neural networks could never detect in the age of the universe — there is truly no telling what they are capable of. If we do not work out how to create ethical and safe AI quickly enough, this could be a catastrophe.
I worry that there are not enough people in quantum computing or training to be in quantum computing to handle all of these developments and their possible dangers. There could be a nightmare scenario if quantum computers become too powerful too quickly. I hope this prediction is actually wrong.
