Quick Hits: Initial Thoughts on the Wagner Mutiny

The hot news today is about what is essentially a mutiny by PMC Wagner forces against President Putin and Ministry of Defense leadership.

There are some facts and many rumors floating around in relation to this event: there are reports that Russian military forces had begun shelling and attacking Wagner Forces last night (though friendly fire incidents had previously occurred). Wagner Forces have apparently seized control of the southern military district headquarters in Rostov and were moving toward Moscow, currently engaging MoD forces around the halfway point at Voronezh. There were claims that Putin had fled Moscow. There were rumors that Gerasimov had fled his headquarters and was hiding in a friend’s residence. Video has emerged showing Wagner forces driving past Russian military checkpoints. Prigozhin himself has made public statements declaring that the regime is his enemy, not the military forces, and Putin has responded, condemning the “rebellion.”

Since many are asking what this means for the war, we thought we would offer our initial thoughts.

First, it is important to remember the old military aphorism: “The first report is always wrong.” We must avoid simply taking everything we are hearing and seeing as fact. In a world of deep fakes, we can’t even be certain of public video statements without further verification. All reporting should be taken with a grain of salt and information must be assessed for validity and credibility. Things will become clear with time.

Second, as Kennan rightly observed, the way to defeat Russia has always been generating internal strife, not overt external domination. A group of Army personnel planning for the invasion before the war started were of the personal opinion that the could end in four ways, one of those was a coup. And this was something often hoped for by many across the international community.

But the thing to keep in mind is that a) any large scale instability and loss of control in Russia will occur in the context of lots of nuclear weapons, and b) even if Putin is removed, there’s no guarantee that the person/people who follow him will be more reasonable, less belligerent, or more favorable to ending the war. So, chaos in Russia carries with it a lot of risk, and it is not altogether certain that events could not be much worse than they are now.

Third, Wagner can’t topple of the Russian government on their own. A coordinated deliberate response by the Russian military would crush Wagner’s efforts (though Russia has had a hard time putting together a coordinated deliberate actions as of late). Furthermore, the Russian National Guard, which answers directly to Putin, is larger than the Russian military force in Ukraine and these forces exist for the purpose of internal control and protection of the regime. While they mostly lack the heavy weapons of the ministry of defense forces, they still represent another significant obstacle. The only way that Wagner’s mutiny could pose a serious threat to the regime is if a tipping point is reached and large numbers of ministry of defense forces begin joining up.

Of course the real win right now is that this is occurring in the midst of Ukraine’s offensive, creating chaos, distracting leaders, pulling troops, etc.

And yes, the current conditions do make it ripe for someone within Putin‘s inner circle to assassinate him, assume control and make a deal with Prigozhin.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how this will impact Russia’s response to the Ukrainian offensive. But, it is highly unlikely that the end of Putin’s regime and the war is in sight.

Edit:

The short-lived coup attempt is now over. Peter Zeihan offers some pretty decent analysis in the aftermath here.