Hard Work Will Never Be Enough
Hard work and perseverance are two values which are promoted by society as the two-pronged key to ‘success’. While there is some justification for this belief, it is incorrect to assume that those values are the only things required to achieve success and reach the top of one’s field. It’s a belief that has been championed by everyone from our parents and teachers to high-profile billionaires and historical legends.
We live in communities built on such beliefs; communities which encourage ruthless individualism, wealth accumulation, tenacity, dogged determination and good ol’ hustling. Those who are fortunate enough to have this system work in their favour then go as far as describing themselves as ‘self-made’.
But these staunchly rooted ideologies fail to consider a critical facet of success: Luck.
Luck or Hard work?
One could term luck to be anything which an individual is not responsible for — something which occurs by chance rather than as a consequence of an individual’s actions.
In his 2016 book, Success and Luck: The Myth of the Meritocracy, economics professor Robert Frank makes a gripping case that we often dramatically underestimate the role of luck in our success. Frank argues that luck plays a more significant role in success than it used to, especially in a commercially variable system.
The truth is that plain luck plays a more significant role in life outcomes than most successful people would like to admit. However, you must note that I am in no way discrediting the relevance of handwork, talent and skill in achieving success. The market in various industries — such as tech and engineering — is very competitive and you probably won’t even get a chance to compete if you do not possess the right mix of talent, skill and perseverance. The main argument here is that these things alone are not enough to create success.
Most of the time, the hardest-working and most talented people aren’t the ones who experience the most success. This is widespread with individuals competing for seemingly meritocratic jobs or internships. You might be the most qualified candidate where talent and personal qualities are considered, but the next candidate who is nearly as talented and nearly as skilled is lucky enough to have a background which the particular hiring manager or recruiter can connect with. Who gets the job?
In his book, Frank provides a strong realistic example to further reimburse his point: “Imagine a meritocratic contest where 98% of a job candidate’s success is based on talent and hard work and the other 2% on luck. You can run this a thousand times and the most talented or hardest-working person will very rarely win. “
To win, you have to be hardworking and talented — but you also have to be incredibly fortunate.
That isn’t fair. Is it?
Unequivocally speaking, nothing is.
There also is the argument for unequal opportunity limiting the potential of seemingly unfortunate or unlucky individuals. Some people dismiss this thought, believing instead that every individual has the capability to end up at the same success level, with varying effort levels of course. In 1997, Warren Buffett, the famous multi-billionaire, proposed a thought experiment called the ‘Ovarian Lottery’ to provide an answer:
“Imagine that it is 24 hours before you are going to be born,” he said, “and a genie comes to you. The genie says you can determine the rules of the society you are about to enter and you can design anything you want. You get to design the social rules, the economic rules, the governmental rules. And those rules are going to prevail for your lifetime and your children’s lifetime and your grandchildren’s lifetime.”
“But there is a catch,” he said.
“You don’t know whether you’re going to be born rich or poor, male or female, infirm or able-bodied, in the United States or Afghanistan. All you know is that you get to take one ball out of a barrel with 7 billion balls in it. And that’s you. In other words, you’re going to participate in what I call the Ovarian Lottery. And that is the most important thing that’s ever going to happen to you in your life. It’s going to determine way more than what school you go to, how hard you work, all kinds of things.”
Research backs the claim that the circumstances you’re born into consequentially affects your success. Being born rich is far more helpful in life than being born gifted. The Washington Post reports: “Economists found genetic endowments are distributed almost equally among children in low-income and high-income families. Success is not.”
One thing that’s great about Buffet is his appreciation for the role of luck in his success. In his Annual Letter (2014), he wrote, “Through dumb luck, Charlie and I were born in the United States, and we are forever grateful for the staggering advantages this accident of birth has given us.” Buffet acknowledges that he’s had incredible luck since the moment he was born. Many successful people are not as honest.
Any such thing as Self-Made?
The lore of the self-made person is so ridiculous that it barely deserves an argument. To say anyone is a ‘self-made billionaire’ — that they have earned the entirety of their wealth through pure merit — is illogical.
It’s a part of the reason I disagree with Forbes dubbing Kylie Jenner, the youngest ever self-made billionaire. She was lucky to begin her career with truckloads of money and name recognition, so that title is an overblown claim. At best, I can give her credit for starting and running a successful company.
Most “self-made” individuals find it easy to attribute their success to their personal hard work and determination. And when you suggest that luck had something to do with their success, they tend to get defensive. When successful people recount the events which got them to their current status, they are likely to bring up all the hard work and forget the chance events. This can be attributed to a psychological concept known as Hindsight Bias.
Robert Frank provides an apt example to appropriately illustrate this: “…the best metaphor for this is headwind and tailwind. If you’re battling an obstacle, you’re conscious of it; you have to work hard to overcome it. But if something is pushing you along, you don’t notice it as much, and you’re less likely to credit it in the narrative of your success.”
While I don’t question for a moment the hard work put in by those who are successful, I do wonder whether said success was solely a product of “self.” Behind every success are significant investments and contributions by individuals such as family, friends, associates, antagonists, mentors, teachers and so on. The most successful people on earth are those who have learned to humbly accept the power which comes with harnessing broader spheres of influence.
Absolute Success vs Relative Success
Hard work matters in a more relative sense and luck matters more in an absolute sense.
Absolute success weighs your level of success compared to everyone else. What exactly makes someone the best in the world in a particular field? At this level, it is very easy to attribute success to luck. Even if you make good choices initially — like Steve Jobs deciding to build phones in his garage — you still can’t understand all the factors that cause such large-scale outcomes.
Relative success, on the other hand, considers your level of success with people similar to you; people who received the same degree of education, grew up in similar neighbourhoods and born with similar levels of talent.
The more zoomed-in the comparison becomes, the more influence hard work has on success. Where similar levels of luck are considered comparatively, the defining factors are individual’s habits and choices.
Generally, the higher the success, the more extreme the circumstances that caused it. It’s often a combination of the right connections, genes, timings and thousands of parameters which no-one can predict.
So what’s it gonna be?
While we cannot deny the importance of plain luck, it is imperative to note that hard work really does make a difference. Typically, you do get better results when you work hard than you would with less effort.
What is it then? What determines success? Effort or randomness? Hard work or good fortune? I think we can all understand that both factors play essential roles.
