Boston Celtics: Justifying Jaylen’s Contract
Is Jaylen Brown really worth the “Ca-Ching”?
Boston Celtics just signed Jaylen Brown for a four-year, $115 million contract extension on October 21st, per NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski. The swingman out of California is the first Celtics player after Rajon Rondo in 2009 who signed a rookie-scale extension.
Brown, who rejected the initial $80M/4yr extension offer posted 11.2 points, 4.0 boards, and 1.3 dimes per game with the Celtics for three seasons, playing mostly in Shooting Guard position while also offers flexibility by filling the 3 when necessary.
As the third-overall pick from the 2016 NBA draft, fellow Celtics fans like me expected Brown to produce on a high volume. That 11/4/1 stat line isn’t something I would consider massive yet he dared to reject a sum of contract that already generous if I might say. But this opinion means nothing without the stats and analysis to back it up.
So in this article, I would break down Brown’s development through the years and analyze his performance compared to his teammates to see how much he contributes to the team last season. Then we’ll see what are the things he might need to add as he proves himself worthy.
A bit about Brown…
According to his DraftExpress report back in 2016, Jaylen Brown is an explosive Small Forward with the tools to leap towards the basket and absorbs contact while doing so. They are high on Brown’s natural gift like strength and athleticism as he was predicted to play in Power Forward position depending on the matchup. Brown averages 14.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists with the Golden Bears.
In his first season, Brown mainly plays from the wing or corner looking for cutting opportunities toward the basket. For example, In a set play, Brown moves toward the corner while Isaiah Thomas or Avery Bradley orchestrating the offense. When the opportunity arises, he cuts to the basket and muscles himself to draw some fouls and extra basket counts. Occasionally, Brown receives the ball from the wing and slashes to the basket for a dunk or lay-up. And what makes Brown special is how he plays in transition. He’s blazingly fast as he can outrun the opposition when they lose possession. A perfect fast-break machine, Brown has quite the awareness of his surrounding so he often finishes the job right by drawing fouls when the opponent is too close to him while keeping his focus on scoring with his hand.
Since it’s his first rodeo, Brown needs to understand how it rolls in the highest stage of basketball. This often left him confused, staring blankly as he tries to read the opposition’s defense so he can make the proper movement. Shooting from long range isn’t his best feature as well, so Brown’s game in his early days was pretty much limited. Brown averages 6.6 points on 45.4% field goal percentages, 2.8 rebounds, and 0.8 assists in his first season.
After something I would consider disappointing for a first season, Sophomore Jaylen Brown offered a fresh breeze of promises. He added three-pointers in his arsenal, along with the good stuff he already had in his rookie season. Brown attempted 4.4 three points shot per game, a spike compared to last season’s 1.7 with 39.5% completion percentage. How bout that for an improvement?
This is due to the Celtics drafted Jayson Tatum as third-overall, meaning Brown can take more shooting opportunities. He knew it’s going to happen so he practiced his shooting in the off-season and it paid off. Brown averages 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 2017–2018.
Brown has all the tools to be a good defensive player but it didn’t show until his second season. He’s quick on the switch, fast enough to catch up in transition to stop fast-breaks, and has active hands. Being 6'7 and have a 7'0.5 wingspan also helps a lot as he can guard multiple positions with his unique combination of strength, quickness, and the tools to do so. Brown's defensive rating in his second season is 105, five points better compared to his rookie season with 110. He enjoyed a spark in defensive win share as he scored 3.2 compared to 1.3 and defensive box plus-minus of 0.4 compared to -0.9.
And for his third season analysis, we go over to the next section…
Stats Comparison — Brown vs. Boston
Oooookay, bear with me for a while. Last season’s Celtics — on paper — WAS talented indeed. We had three All-Star players (Kyrie, Horford, Gordon) and two top-3 draft pick (Tatum and Brown) as the starting five. But it didn’t work out as they were only one win short of a 50-win record, ranked fourth in the Eastern Conference. Not to mention along the way, there was a roster adjustment with Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris introduced, replacing Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward. Playoffs record? Meh. They swept the Oladipo-less Pacers but eventually got humbled by Giannis and the Bucks.
So, how good Jaylen Brown really played in this underwhelming Celtics roster? I am no master of statistics but I want to make a simple measurement on how good a player compared to others.
Introducing, The Amatrics. A simple, dummy metric created by me. It’s pretty straightforward, every time a player has a bigger point compared to another, he/she will have a point.
Exempli Gratia: There are five players; A = 12 reb, B = 10 reb, C = 15 reb, D = 11 reb, E = 14 reb. Points allocation are described below:
C = 5 pts
E = 4 pts
A = 3 pts
D = 2 pts
B = 1 pt
Five players mean 5 points maximum, 1 point minimum. I know it’s not a perfect metric, but to compare players performance from a small set of data it’s pretty convenient to use.
Now we can begin. I want to look at Celtics’ top-10 players based on minutes played, but to make it fair I won’t include players who mainly play in Power Forward and Center position. It won’t be a fair fight comparing Al Horford’s rebound stats with Brown’s and so forth. Go figure.
As seen above, Brown ranked fourth among top-5 Celtics’ guards in the metrics. He’s fourth in points and rebounds, fifth in assists, joint third in steals and joint fourth in blocks. I know that per game stats won’t give us a better picture of how Brown contributes to his team, but I want to show you how this metric works and give a rough indication where Brown really is among his fellow teammates.
Let’s take a look at the second table above. I colored the Usage Rate (USG%) because I did not take that stats into the metric account but it will give you context on what’s going on. Jaylen Brown’s usage rate is 22.1%, ranked second tied with Jayson Tatum. But his advanced numbers were underwhelming. On efficiency, he’s fourth compared to his colleagues with 13.5. That’s below league’s average, mind you. He’s the lowest in Win Share, Box Plus-Minus, Value Over Replacement, and Offensive Rating compared to the other players. Tied second in Defensive Rating.
Looking at the numbers alone, it shows that Brown didn’t do well in his third season as a Celtic. Yes, he’s an experienced player now with two seasons of top-level basketball in his bag. The ceiling is high for him to reach. And Brad Stevens trusted him as his Usage Rate is quite high, and he was sixth in minutes played with 1913 minutes in his bag.
You might have read Brown’s DraftExpress report as I embedded the link above and noticed they mentioned “consistency” as one of his weaknesses and in this season, it shows. Brown just did not hit his shots right. He missed a lot and he forced it. He took less three points attempts with 3.7 compared to 4.4 last season but his percentage went plummeting to only 34.4% from 39.5%. Injury may have had something with it but it definitely hurts the Celtics as one of their brightest talent underperformed.
So… What gives?
So, yeah. Boston Celtics just handed $115 million for four years to Jaylen Brown, a third-overall swingman who averages 11/4/1 in three seasons. To compare, Sacramento Kings signed Buddy Hield on a 4-year deal with less money, $95 million. Buddy averages 15 points, 4,1 rebounds, and 2,0 assists on 44.7% field goal percentage. Last season, his per-game averages were 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. Buddy’s PER last season was 17.5, 5.9 Win Share, and 1.1 Box Plus-Minus. He’s an integral part of the young Kings core and one of the front runners in Most Improved Player awards alongside D’Angelo Russell and Pascal Siakam. 20 million less. Think about it for a sec.
The amount will due next season as both players were still in their last year of rookie contract but is it worth the investment? If Jaylen Brown can produce on scoring on the same level as Buddy Hield, at least he has to bring something to the table.
First and foremost he will have to be consistent. It doesn’t have to be in high volume but making the same impact day in day out is what counts nowadays. Having a reliable spot-up shooter from the corner is a luxury and if Brown can develop into that kind of player the Celtics will be in for a treat.
But one thing interesting about Brown is that when you watched the Celtics’ pre-season games you’ll notice that he has more responsibility in playmaking. You’ll find him occasionally holding the ball from the middle and operating from the screen like this:
This is the clip from when the Celtics went up against the reigning champion Toronto Raptors on their second game this season. Brown did well to draw the attention from the help-side defender as it left Hayward free, and instead of giving it to the rolling Theis he noticed the wide-open Hayward and splash, three points.
And please, please look at this video below:
But let’s not forget about him only scored 4 points and 6 rebounds in the first game against the Sixers last Thursday. That’s sucks.
It’s too early to tell how good Jaylen Brown can be, but for now, my opinion stands. It’s too much for the Celtics to pay him that sum amount of money. This season will be his make-or-break and I would be glad if he can prove me wrong.
Stats source: basketball-reference.com
