Rise Again, Royal Blues
Unstable. Probably it’s the perfect word to illustrate Schalke 04 in recent years. Last season, the Royal Blues finished in the 14th spot of the Bundesliga, just five points above the relegation zone. The season before, they finished the league as runners-up behind FC Bayern; eight points above TSG Hoffenheim in the third place. In 2016/17, Die Konigsblauen ended the league in mid-table — precisely in the 10th spot — while the season before they finished in fifth place.
With unwanted negative results in 2018/19, Schalke are trying to bounce back this season. Their efforts are bearing some fruits so far as they are now standing in the sixth place; only seven points below the league leaders, FC Bayern. Some naysayers would argue that Die Knappen are lucky to achieve this feat? Is that true?
One way to see it is by looking at the numbers Schalke have produced this season. So far, they have scored 31 league goals this season; joint-fifth most with Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg. However, their expected goals (xG) number is currently standing at 23.87; fifth lowest in Bundesliga. The number shows that Schalke scored seven to eight goals more than they deserve.
The reason was mainly due to the superb performance shown by Suat Serdar and Amine Harit. None of them are out-and-out forwards like Guido Burgstaller, yet they have scored more goals than the striker.
Serdar — a central midfielder — is an aggressive player who averaged 2.03 shots per game. Thanks to his offensive tendency, the German currently has seven league goals to his name, with only 2.94 xG. Based on the statistics, it means Serdar should have only scored a maximum three goals; four fewer than he has right now.
Not only him, but another name pops up from the second line to power Schalke’s attack. Harit — an offensive midfielder — already has six goals in the Bundesliga this season. Same as Serdar, Harit outperforms his xG number, which stands at 2.99. Not only good at scoring goals, Harit is also great in making chances for his team. So far, he has averaged 1.77 key passes per 90 minutes; the fourth-highest in Schalke. From that number, per today he successfully made four assists in the league.
At another end of the pitch, Schalke are also quite sound. So far they only conceded 26 goals in Bundesliga; better than their arch-rival in the fourth spot, Borussia Dortmund. Yet their expected goals against (xGA) number begs to differ, with a total of 31.28. This number is even worse than 13th-place Hertha Berlin who only have 29.18 xGA. It shows that Schalke have conceded at least five to six goals fewer than they should.
Huge credit must be given to Die Konigsblauen’s defensive department. First, the accolade goes to their 23-year-old goalkeeper, Alexander Nubel. The youngster currently manages to make 3.2 saves per game; from all top-six-club goalkeepers, only Yann Sommer (Borussia Monchengladbach) has the better number.
Not only that, two of their players are in the elite ranks of tackles and interceptions made per game. In tackles section, Serdar averages 3.1 successful tackles per match; third-highest in the league. It also shows how influential the 22-year-old midfielder for his team. Moving to the interception stats, there is Omar Mascareli. The Spanish midfielder has made 2.5 interceptions per game; joint-second highest across the Bundesliga.
Looking at the numbers, some may say Schalke are a bit fortunate with their results. However, I may want to have a dissenting opinion. David Wagner’s trust in youngsters is probably the main reason why Schalke have outperform their statistics. None of Nubel, Serdar, and Harit will be 24-year-old this season; yet, they have been the important backbone for Die Knappen so far. With huge potentials they have, it’s probably safe to say that Schalke’s upcoming rise is neither lucky nor inconsistent. It will be inevitable.
Credit: understat.com, whoscored.com
I’m Petrick Sinuraya, a 22-year-old football writer based in Indonesia.
Currently, I work as a freelance writer at Ronnie Dog Media; mostly writing match analysis pieces for totalfootballanalysis.com. I’m also actively writing as a freelance contributor for panditfootball.com, Indonesia’s biggest football site.
For inquiries, please contact me at petricksinuraya@gmail.com.
