NFL
Super Bowl LV Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay will bear witness to a generational matchup, as the past and the future of the NFL go head to head for the Lombardi Trophy.
Super Bowl LV is finally here. After 20 grueling weeks of football, two teams will compete in the grand finale of the unusual and unique 2020 season. The pirate ship at Raymond James Stadium is ready to fire its cannons with fireworks for whichever team comes out on top as the winner of Super Bowl LV. It’s only fitting that the final game of the season will be the matchup that will define the NFL for years to come, Tom Brady — the undisputed G.O.A.T — against Patrick Mahomes — the defending champion and possibly future G.O.A.T.
Their journeys throughout the whole season have been fun to watch. Let’s relive the stories of the last two teams standing, in a season unlike any other.
AFC Champion — Kansas City Chiefs
They’re back like they never left. Arguably the best team in the NFL right now, the Kansas City Chiefs have their eyes set on one goal, to be the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles since the 2003–04 New England Patriots. Judging by how they performed in the regular season, and dominated the Browns and the Bills in the playoff, surely that dream is closer than we ever thought.
Telling the Chiefs’ story is incomplete without talking about their offense. Everyone knows when their offense takes the field, they can score points however and whenever they want. Of course, their identity is still the highly explosive, pass-heavy offense, led by arguably the greatest young quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes. But when they need to run the clock to manage the time, get a long sustainable drive, they can do that too through some creative run scheme, utilizing all their offensive weapons. This Chiefs offense gained a total of 6,653 yards on offense, and that was better than the total offensive yards of the 1999 St. Louis Rams, the Greatest Show on Turf, who had 6,412 yards.
Mahomes, along with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have been out of this world. The chemistry between the three of them is stronger than ever. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, their 2020 first round draft pick, and Le’Veon Bell in the middle of the season complete this team, and they can plan their offense however they want. No wonder they lead the league in total offensive yards and total team passing yards (4854 yards). While their running game is not their primary offensive plan, it’s there when they need it not only through Edwards-Helaire and Bell, but also their speedy receivers who can take the handoff and explode in an open field.
Kansas City can decimate any team in just one shot. They are playing their best football at the right time. They had an average of 438.5 total yards from their offense in the playoff, and it feels like they can switch into another gear in the Super Bowl. The defense is just as good. They can generate pressure up front with Frank Clark and Chris Jones as their key players, and Tyrann Mathieu leads the secondary with his ability to read the opposing team’s offense and make the right play.
NFC Champion — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They have done it. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first team in history to play the Super Bowl at their own stadium. It took a certain Tom Brady to come to Tampa Bay and deliver their first Super Bowl since 2003 in his first year. Brady will play in his 10th Super Bowl of his career, which means that in his 21 years of playing in the NFL, there’s a 48% chance of him getting to the Super Bowl (it’s actually 50% if the 2008 season when he missed the whole season isn’t counted).
Bruce Arians was just one great QB away from being a contender in the NFC back in 2019 if only Jameis Winston didn’t hurt the team with his 30 interceptions. With Winston under center, everyone can see a glimpse of what this offense can be with Mike Evans as the wideout and Chris Godwin in the slot. But with Brady under center, the Bucs offense finally fulfilled their potential. Alongside Tom Brady, the Buccaneers added more weapons to their already stacked offense, like Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown in the midseason, and Brady’s long time friend, Rob Gronkowski back from his retirement. This season, they ranked top 10 in total offense, and number two in total passing yards (4626 yards) just behind the Chiefs.
Todd Bowles in his second year as defensive coordinator for the Bucs transformed this defense to an elite level. Talented players upfront like Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Shaquil Barrett are combined with Bowles’ blitz packages system, as they have a 39% blitz rate in the regular season. In the NFC Championship game, the Buccaneers sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and pressured him for a total of 10 times, with Barrett and Pierre-Paul leading the way with three and two sacks each. In rushing defense, Lavonte David and Devin White led this unit to become the number one rushing defense in 2020, in all categories (yards, touchdowns, yards/attempt, yards/game).
This Buccaneers team is a complete team on both sides of the ball. This team’s defense will force the opposition to make a mistake, turn the ball over, and watch the greatest of all time capitalize on the mistake to put points on the scoreboard. Ask the Saints and the Packers, who got a total of six turnovers turned into 38 points against them when facing the Bucs.
Head-to-Head Analysis
The Chiefs and the Buccaneers faced off against each other once back in week 12, when the Chiefs visited Raymond James Stadium. The Chiefs won the game 27–24, due to the great performance of Tyreek Hill who finished the night with 15 receptions, 269 yards, and three touchdowns. He became the player with the highest fantasy points in a game this season with 57.9 points.
There will be some interesting matchups that will take place during the Super Bowl. These matchups defined the game back in week 12, and most likely will play a big role again in the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Buccaneers’ pass rushers
The Buccaneers can generate pressure on the quarterback better than the majority of the league. There are a lot of talented players in the Buccaneers’ front seven. They have a total of 192 pressures, that were converted into 48 sacks total for the whole year. To generate pressure is one thing, but how about making it count with Mahomes and the Chiefs?
Mahomes is in the top five of the most pressured quarterbacks on dropbacks from 2018 to 2020, with 664 pressured dropbacks. While the four quarterbacks above him got sacked around 16% to 21% on those dropbacks, Mahomes only got sacked for 9.8%. The Chiefs offensive line is good of course, but Mahomes is dangerous when he avoids pressure with his elusiveness and gets outside the pocket to throw the ball in however position and form he’s in.
In this year’s postseason alone, Mahomes got pressured 19 times, according to Sports Info Solution. On those dropbacks, he had 7.4 Expected Points Added (EPA), 61.1% completion, two touchdowns, no interceptions. As seen in the table below, other quarterbacks this season who faced pressure from outside the pocket all have negative EPA, except Mahomes. In their week 12 matchup this year, the Buccaneers pressured Mahomes for a total of 15 times, which led to just two sacks the whole night. Jason Pierre-Paul led the unit with four pressures and one sack, Shaquil Barrett was their second best pass-rusher with three pressures and also one sack.
No disrespect to the Browns and the Bills, but their pass rushers are not on the same level as the Buccaneers, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have felt the wrath of these players. This might be the most dangerous defensive front that Mahomes will face in this postseason. They are young, fast, and relentless. Mahomes has a slight edge in this matchup, because of his elusiveness and how he can manipulate his body position to throw a pass accurately. But, he still needs to be careful, because even one mistake can cost him against this Tampa Bay defense.
Tampa Bay was in cover 4 coverage. Four defenders occupied deep zones, and three more responsible for zones underneath. That left four players to rush Mahomes. Jason Pierre-Paul showcased his elite hand technique to get past the tackle immediately and Mahomes got no choice but to throw the ball off his back foot in a hurry. Mahomes threw it to the sideline to Mecole Hardman, but because the ball was overthrown, it got intercepted by Sean Murphy-Bunting who was in the right position. Lucky for Mahomes, Pierre-Paul was flagged for roughing the passer.
The key to slowing down this Chiefs offense is to be able to pressure with only four players, so extra defenders can be in coverage. Just like that play above, everyone in the zone coverage was disciplined with their responsibility, and no receiver was wide open at the time. The Buccaneers have all the talents they need to rush Mahomes, and their task should be a little bit easier since the Chiefs’ starting left tackle, Eric Fisher is out with injury.
Tom Brady vs. Steve Spagnuolo
In his 10th trip to the Super Bowl, Tom Brady will meet the man who has become his kryptonite. Steve Spagnuolo, now the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs, was the one who stopped the 18–0 New England Patriots from winning Super Bowl XLII as the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants. Spagnuolo brought the formula to stop Brady that everyone in the league still tries to use now. He has the numbers from Brady, with a 3–2 record against the greatest quarterback of all time.
The Bucs lined up in a 3-by-2 empty set. Tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Godwin in the slot would run a skinny post route. For Gronkowski, this route would benefit him because this is how the Chiefs reacted before the snap.
Spagnuolo likes to play disguise coverage. Before the snap, the Chiefs’ defense lined up with a single high safety, this could indicate a cover 1 or cover 3, but originally, they were in a cover 2 zone disguised in a single high safety look. After the snap, Chiefs cornerback Rashad Fenton (#27) ran to the right deep zone and safety Juan Thornhill (#22) rotated from the middle to his right to cover that zone. The Chiefs also brought a blitz in this play with Daniel Sorensen (#49), as this is the key to make Brady feel pressured and because of the disguise, Spagnuolo wanted Brady to take more time before the throw.
This was how the defense looked from the endzone. Defensive end Alex Okafor would fake a step to make it look like he would rush before he dropped back to cover the underneath zone. Linebacker Anthony Hitchens was the man to replace Okafor to be the pass rusher, and he did it beautifully against Tampa Bay’s left guard Ali Marpet with his hand technique. But he didn’t make it in time, as Brady already launched the ball.
Back to the offense, Gronkowski ran a post route, to target an area in-between two deep zones, as we call this “middle field open”. Brady timed the throw perfectly to Gronk, who was covered only by Okafor, resulting in a first down in the midfield territory.
Brady has shown he can win against Spagnuolo’s defensive scheme using his great pre-snap awareness. But that isn’t always the case. Being pressured is still one of Brady’s weaknesses because of his lack of mobility.
In this play, Brady knew he needed a touchdown to keep up with the Chiefs. Mike Evans lined up in the slot, the Chiefs showed pressure, but no one lined up against Evans face-to-face. After the snap, Kansas City did a man coverage and brought a blitz with defensive back Daniel Sorensen (#49), and it made Frank Clark (#55) a free rusher. Brady knew he needed to throw the ball as soon as possible to Evans, because the one who’s responsible for Evans, Anthony Hitchens (#53) was running from the other side of the field. Clark is an elite pass-rusher. He forced Brady to make a mistake, which ended up with the ball being intercepted.
Here’s another look of the blitz from the endzone view. Because Sorensen was straight up attacking left tackle Donovan Smith (#76), Smith had to block him and left Clark with a free rush to Brady. A good blitz scheme called by Spagnuolo, knowing that the Bucs offense was in an empty formation with no players in the backfield alongside Brady, which means no one was going to pick up the blitz.
Over the years Brady has faced Spagnuolo, it’s clear that the two have understood each other. Spagnuolo knows how to interfere with Brady’s timing, he’ll call for blitz a lot, especially on the third down. Brady understands how to dissect Spagnuolo’s disguise coverage, with quick reads and throws. Buccaneers offensive coordinator, Byron Leftwich will most likely give some degree of freedom to Brady to make his call on the field. It’s going to be interesting to watch how this chess match will go.
Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hill vs. Tampa Bay’s secondary
Pick your poison. This has been the mantra for anyone facing the Chiefs in the last two to three years because there are so many talented offensive players in this team that the opponents have to pay attention to. Players like Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, even their running backs like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Williams are all dangerous in the open field. They can get open anytime, and Mahomes will surely find them with the perfect throw. But there are two players that the Bucs have to focus their gameplan on to beat the Chiefs.
Let’s start with the one who decimated the Buccaneers in week 12, Tyreek Hill. With his speed and ability to make plays after the catch, he is dangerous in both deep routes and horizontal routes that favor players who can make runs after the catch. In their regular season game, Hill was covered 1-on-1 with Buccaneers’ cornerback Carlton Davis.
This is just straight up disrespectful to Buccaneers’ cornerback Carlton Davis. The Chiefs’ lined up in a shotgun formation, with Tyreek Hill in the slot. The Buccaneers were playing cover 1 with man-coverage underneath, and a blitz, but pre-snap, they showed a two-high safeties. After the snap, Hill did a jab step to the outside and quickly released to the inside of Davis. Davis was now one step behind Hill.
Because there was one Buccaneers safety coming down to make it a cover 1 man cover, there was an area wide open left by the safety that Hill can attack as long as he can win against Davis. He already won the 1-on-1, Mahomes threw the perfect ball despite facing a blitz and Hill caught it. After the catch, Hill beat safety Mike Edwards (#32) and ran to the endzone. The Bucs only relied on Davis to match against Hill and did not bring much safety help. That decision turned out to be costly.
Hill finished the night with 269 reception yards and three touchdowns. The Buccaneers will surely learn from this mistake and make a better game plan to cover Hill. What the Buccaneers can do is to double team Hill with a safety. A cornerback will cover him 1-on-1 underneath, and then a safety will help close Hill’s route. It’s not going to be super effective, but that can slow him down and the Bucs can minimize the risk of suffering from big plays. But, there is another man who possesses the same threat.
Travis Kelce is a matchup nightmare to any zone or man coverage. Kelce can read the opposing team’s coverage like how a quarterback reads it. After spotting a weak spot in the coverage, he can position himself in the best way to receive the ball. That’s why his connection with Mahomes has been ridiculously good. Kelce finished the season as the top receiver in the team, with 1,416 receiving yards, which is the most ever in history by a tight end in a single season, along with 11 touchdowns.
Kelce’s biggest advantage comes when a play is broken, and Mahomes has to extend it in order to keep the play alive. This is an example from a play in the AFC Championship game against the Bills.
Before the snap, Chiefs wide receiver Byron Pringle (#13) would go in motion to the right side of Mahomes, making it a 2-by-2 shotgun formation. Bills cornerback Tre’davious White followed and lined up against him, and safety Jordan Poyer went down to be in the box. After the pre-snap motions, this was the formation.
Because the Bills had two defenders in the box drop back to a zone coverage (#57 and #92), there was one player from the edge who had a free rush to Mahomes. Mahomes had to avoid the sack and made a play. In this kind of situation, he would look for Kelce as his go-to guy, because he can find a soft spot in the coverage.
After Mahomes avoided the sack, Kelce was not wide open. There was Bills defensive end Darryl Johnson (#92) in the line of Mahomes-Kelce connection. But, Mahomes and Kelce knew what they had to do. Mahomes threw it in a wide open area, where Kelce would go into.
This is why Mahomes and Kelce have one of the most dangerous connections in the league. Mahomes knows when and where to throw the ball to Kelce, who can read the field as a quarterback does, going into where Mahomes would throw the ball. It was a perfect defensive play call from the Bills, with having one free-rusher and a zone coverage where everyone was covered. It’s just Mahomes and Kelce are too good for any coverage. From what looked like a broken play, turned into a first down.
This Super Bowl LV matchup is a game with many narratives. This will be the first Super Bowl to feature MVP and Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks on both sides. Mahomes is the last quarterback to beat Brady this season back in week 12. Brady is the last quarterback to beat Mahomes in the playoff, at the 2018 AFC Championship game.
Tom Brady is undeniably the NFL G.O.A.T.. But if he wins his seventh championship ring, the debate for the G.O.A.T. of American sports would be more interesting. On the other side of the ball, Patrick Mahomes is ready to dominate the league for the next 10–15 years. The Chiefs are on the verge of becoming a dynasty. To beat the man who has already been in this league for more than 20 years, and became the greatest in the process, will be a passing of the torch of some sort from the Brady era, to the Mahomes era.
Defense wins championships, as they say. The Chiefs are here to challenge that statement. The Buccaneers will be facing what could be the greatest offense the league has ever seen since The Greatest Show on Turf. This could be the kind of Super Bowl that people will talk about in the future, the one for the ages.
Is “Don’t bet against Brady” still a thing? Or now it’s more “Don’t bet against Mahomes”? You decide.
Rafiandra Putra Andika is a writer, designer, video editor, photographer, content creator, or to sum up, a story-teller. He found his fond love for sports ever since a little kid, starts with Soccer, F1, Basketball, and now focusing his talent on growing the exposure of American Football, especially in Indonesia. He pledged his loyalty to LeBron James, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots.
You can follow him on Instagram: @rafiandra21 for his recent audiovisual works (photo, video, and fantasy football podcast), and on Twitter with the same handle for his unfiltered thoughts and written pieces like this one.
