NBA
The Amateurs and #NBATwitter +62 Guide to 2020–21 NBA MVP Candidates
A proud collaboration project between The Amateurs and ATTL Basket, txtanakbasket, and Tripit Basketball.
In an unusual season of basketball due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the NBA MVP race is also filled with unusual candidates amongst the many listed. Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are non-American players, who are at the forefront of a race of being the best player in an American basketball league. All three players exemplify the value of being the most valuable on their respective team, but are they worthy of being the NBA’s most valuable player?
All stats are correct per May 16, 2021.
Joel Embiid
It has been eight years since Sam Hinkie coined the term “Trust The Process” when he was introduced as the Philadelphia 76ers’ general manager. On May 14, 2013, Hinkie spoke about being patient and emphasized the importance of the process in rebuilding a team. “We talk a lot about process — not outcome — and trying to consistently take all the best information you can and consistently make good decisions. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t, but you reevaluate them all.”
The people of Philadelphia had high hopes on Joel Hans Embiid, a Cameroonian big man their team drafted with the third overall pick from Kansas in 2014. Embiid, who is known for being a high-ceiling defensive stalwart due to his unique combination of power and speed, had a great college basketball career. Embiid won the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award in the 2013–14 season, and he was set to be one of the top picks in the lottery. But then, he suffered a fracture in his back and the injury put his NBA career in jeopardy. Yet, the Sixers “trusted the process” and went on to draft Embiid.
Embiid would miss the first two seasons of his career, but ever since he got back to playing basketball in 2016, everything has been stellar for the 7-footer. Through five active seasons, Joel Embiid averages 24.9 points on 48.6% field goal percentage, 11.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Embiid also has four NBA All-Star call-ups, two All-NBA second team awards, and two second-team NBA All-Defensive awards. This season is arguably his best ever, with him being in contention for the MVP title.
Joel Embiid is currently playing at his peak, racking up a career-high 28.5 points per game in an effective field goal percentage of 54.5%. Most of those points come from the post, where he bullies his mark with a combination of strength and swiftness to keep them honest, then finishes the job in the paint. Embiid also masters the art of the mid-range shot, by making 50.3% of his field goals from 10 to 14 feet from the hoop. Going further, Embiid has a respectable perimeter shooting with 37.7% three-point field goal percentage. According to the chart from StatMuse below, Embiid is hitting his shots well above the league’s average while he’s in the paint and in mid-range, while also not trailing far from above-the-break three-point shooting.
Through advanced stats, Embiid shows how impactful he is for the 76ers when he’s on the court as his On/Off ratings are always off the chart. The Sixers heavily relies on him especially in clutch moments and more often than not, he comes through.
While his defensive numbers are not as outstanding as Rudy Gobert and other Defensive Player of the Year candidates, Embiid brings his grit to the floor with 104 defensive ratings and 3.2 defensive win shares. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR valued Embiid as one of the best two-way players in the NBA, with a balanced share of offensive and defensive RAPTOR ratings.
While he’s not the most prominent facilitator offensively compared to the other MVP candidates, Embiid has something up his sleeve that puts him as an MVP-caliber player. He’s leading the league in fourth-quarter free throws made with 3.0 points. He’s also accurate, hitting 87.3% of his fourth-quarter free throws compared to 2019’s 75.4%, suggesting better physical conditioning compared to the early parts of his career and better on-court focus on the top of his shenanigans. Embiid’s ability to draw fouls by throwing his body into contact has been a major factor in this improvement, but this style of play is also one of the reasons why he’s missing a lot of games. Embiid only played 51 out of 71 games this season, which would hurt his MVP campaign.
To summarize, this is Joel Embiid’s best season yet and he’s been impactful to his team’s amazing record. The Philadelphia 76ers are now first in the Eastern Conference with a 48–23 record. Being both the unstoppable force and immovable object he is, Joel Embiid is an MVP-worthy player this season.
Nikola Jokic
Looking back several seasons ago, nobody would even remotely think that a center could win an MVP award in 2021. Much less a pudgy, non-athletic Serbian who was drafted in the second round. The NBA throughout the years has always favored centers who are physical and can dominate the paint area with their sheer power. To say the least, Jokic is quite far from that. But, he is a 7-foot facilitator with a vision that is head and shoulders — figuratively and literally — above the vast majority of primary facilitators in the whole league.
Denver’s 2014 draft night was focused more on the 16th overall pick, another European big man in the name of Jusuf Nurkić. In fact, Jokic was not the 8th overseas draft prospect that was chosen in the draft. The goofy big man didn’t even think about getting drafted as he almost fell asleep during the draft had it not been for his brother, who was in New York at the time, calling him as he was selected 41st overall by the Nuggets. Jokic decided to stay in Europe for one more year after the draft and matured his game at Mega Leks, before coming over in the 2015–16 season for his rookie year.
In the early parts of his rookie season, Jokic played in Denver’s very crowded big-men rotation that included Kenneth Faried, JJ Hickson, Joffrey Lauvergne, and fellow 2014 draftee Jusuf Nurkić. Jokic drew the start for the Nuggets in the 12th game of his career but was mostly very forgettable in his performances as a rookie. In a game against the upstart Golden State Warriors, Jokic played very poorly and played only 5 minutes. People were wondering whether he was just another European bustin Artūras Karnišovas’ plethora of foreign projects in Denver.
Fast forward to his second season, Jokic found his stride in the middle of the season, starting at center for the Nuggets and notching double-digit scoring in 47 of his last 51 games that season. Jokic was arguably Denver’s best player that season, finishing top three in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goals made, and free throws made in a Nuggets team that finished 9th in the Western Conference. Denver missed the playoffs by a single game, even with Jokic averaging 19.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.0 blocks on 54% field goal shooting, and willed the Nuggets to a 5–2 record over their last seven games. If anything, the NBA saw the future of Jokic’s brilliance on the court in only his second year.
Fast forward four seasons later and Jokic is currently averaging 26.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.7 blocks on 56.7% shooting from the field. The Joker is also on pace to become the second player to average 26+ points, 10+ rebounds, 8+ assists, and shooting 50% from the floor since Hall-of-Famer Oscar Robertson, who did it in the 1963 season with the Cincinnati Royals. Jokic’s craftiness and vision, which saw him toy with defenders on most nights, is currently making him the most lethal offensive weapon in the league. Jokic is virtually unstoppable as he is shooting almost above league average in every area of the court except the right corner threes.
Through his On/Off Offensive ratings, Jokic shows how impactful he is for his team’s offensive performance when he’s on the court. The Nuggets also rely on him in clutch moments with Jamal Murray lost for the season with a torn ACL and Will Barton not at 100% since injuring his back weeks ago.
Not only scoring, but Jokic’s ability to hit cutters and open shots is also an art of its own. Jokic is currently 5th in the NBA in Total Points Added per game (Points per game + Assist Points Created per game) with 47.5. To add to that, Jokic’s 58 double-doubles also leads the NBA. According to FiveThirtyEight's Offensive RAPTOR, Jokic is tied with Stephen Curry as the most valuable player on offense in the league with a +9.1 rating, the highest mark of his short career and on par with the likes of James Harden during his Houston Rockets tenure.
A potential weak point in Jokic’s MVP case is his defensive contribution to the Nuggets. Denver is 7.7 points better defensively per 100 possessions when Jokic is off the floor, which puts the Serbian big in the 5th percentile in the whole league. Another drawback of Jokic’s MVP campaign is Denver’s standing in the Western Conference. As of May 16, Denver is stuck in third place in the Wild Wild West with no signs of moving up, unless the Suns are purposely losing to fabricate their playoffs matchup. The last player who won MVP with a team that finished outside of the top 3 in their conference was Russel Westbrook in 2017, who was also the first player to repeat an Oscar Robertson statistical achievement when he averaged a triple-double for the whole season.
Seeing all of the arguments above, it is hard to not see Jokic get the MVP nod with the way the game is being sold to audiences worldwide. His offensive contributions offset his lack of game-changing defensive ability, although he had his MVP-worthy moment on a game-winning block against Zion Williamson and the Pelicans. And for the stats fanatics, Jokic repeating Oscar Robertson’s statistical feat might be icing on the cake of his MVP-cake.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis Antetokounmpo has come a long way since being drafted at 15th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks in 2013. Before Giannis entered the NBA, he played for Filathlitikos in the Greek A2 league and wasn’t highly rated. He was a skinny 6-foot-9 kid who weighed 196 pounds when he was drafted and had no resemblance to the Greek Freak known today. Giannis didn’t post big numbers in his rookie season, averaging 6.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks in 77 appearances, and only finished 7th in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Giannis continues to develop and finally had a breakout year in 2016. Giannis already has five NBA All-Star call-ups, two first-team All-NBA awards, Defensive Player of the Year in 2020, and won two straight MVPs. The Greek Freak has grown his body into a muscular 6-foot-11 and 242 pounds. He averages 20.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks in his career and is regarded as one of the best two-way players in the NBA. Giannis helps the Milwaukee Bucks in becoming one of the powerhouses in the Eastern Conference and having the best record in the NBA in the last two years.
This season the Greek Freak is still averaging an elite 28.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks while shooting 57.0% from the field. Most of his points come within the paint where he shot 71.4%. Giannis helped the Milwaukee Bucks to have the 7th best record in the NBA and top 3 in the Eastern Conference.
This season, the only players who averaged at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists while shooting 50% from the field are Giannis and Nikola Jokic. If steals and blocks are added, then only Giannis will make the list and it shows how dominant he is this season.
Advanced stats show how impactful Giannis has been on both ends of the court for the Bucks when he’s playing. Although his usage percentage gets lower, Giannis also scores quite well in the clutch when needed.
According to Basketball Reference, the Greek Freak ranked 3rd in PER, 3rd in Win Share, and 2nd in Blox Plus Minus. Giannis is currently 2nd in the NBA in Total Points Added per game according to NBA math with 368.38. According to FiveThirtyEight, Giannis has a +4.7 Offensive RAPTOR rating and has a +2.0 defensive RAPTOR. With an overall RAPTOR rating of +6.7, he is top 10 among NBA players this season.
However, Giannis still hasn’t improved his shooting. He shoots below league average outside the paint area and despite leading the NBA in free throw attempts (522), he only made 62.8% of his FT. Milwaukee Bucks’ record this season is also worse than last season’s. All the aforementioned arguments can hurt Giannis’ chance to win his third MVP award. Giannis’ 2020–21 season is also overshadowed by the emergence of Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid who helped their respective teams to have better records than Giannis’ Bucks.
While not having a stellar season compared to his competitors, Giannis Antetokounmpo enjoyed yet another winning season with the Milwaukee Bucks. Giannis showcased what would have been the bar for MVP contention and by doing just that, the race might still be on for the Greek Freak.
