The Resurrection of The Red Devils
(Disclaimer: all statistics are accurate until July 17, 2020)
Six wins in the last eight matches. 21 goals scored and only six conceded in the same timespan. This special feature doesn’t belong to Liverpool, who got spanked 4–0 at the Etihad and lost 2–1 at the Emirates in just two weeks. Manchester City? The noisy neighbours had already lost twice too in the league after Project Restart began. So, which side have that numbers?
Surprisingly, it is Manchester United. Yeah, the current Europa League challenger who once boasted themselves as the greatest club in England. But, how did they do that?
Consistently inconsistent
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer started his first-ever full season managing the Red Devils with a convincing 4–0 win at Old Trafford. However, signs of inconsistency pop up in the upcoming games. In the next five league matches, United only managed to get one win and two draws.
Their lack of threats and quality even continued until late October. United were only able to win with narrow margins against minnows like FC Astana and Partizan Belgrade in the Europa League. Even further, mediocre League One side Rochdale forced United to go to the penalties in the earlier stage of the Carabao Cup.
United hit the pedals back with a string of good results until mid-November. That included a 1–2 win against Chelsea away from home, as well as defeating Norwich City (away), Brighton and Hove Albion, and Partizan Belgrade; all with three goals.
The Red Devils’ fluctuating results continue until the end of January 2020. In the 20 matches they played across all competitions, United only won 10 (50%) of them. They even had more losses (six) than draws (four) in those games, which further underlined their inconsistency.
Injuries hit them hard
One of the reasons behind that was Paul Pogba’s lengthy injuries. He missed 22 days in September due to an ankle injury. Upon regaining his fitness, problems hit his ankles again. Now, it took him 79 days to recover. As if it wasn’t enough, his ankles (again!) got injured just a week after. It took him another two-and-a-half month sidelined with a similar problem. If we calculate the numbers, Pogba missed nearly 40 matches, and at least six months of football because of the ankle issue.
Not only Pogba, but problems also hit Nemanja Matic. The Serbian midfielder missed 70 days of football — or at least 14 matches — because of unknown health issues. Even when he’s fit, Matic wasn’t the first option in United’s midfield. He only played a grand total of seven matches in all competitions from August to December.
Before the ‘unwanted’ break: tweaked midfield
Without Pogba and Matic in his disposal, Solskjaer was forced to rely on Fred and Scott McTominay as his midfield generals. However, they had different traits compared to the former duo. Both Fred and McTominay are closer to the type of ball-winning midfielders rather than creative playmakers.
If we look at the numbers, Fred has averaged 2.5 successful tackles per 90 minutes in the Premier League. That feat is only second to Aaron Wan Bissaka’s 3.8 accurate tackles on the same rate. McTominay’s tally is just slightly lower, with 2.2 successful tackles per 90 league minutes.
Now, let’s move to another category: interceptions. Once again, we can find Fred and McTominay in the upper echelon of United’s players this particular classification. The Brazilian currently has 1.6 interceptions per 90 league minutes, while McTominay has an average of 1.5 interceptions on the same rate.
Before the ‘unwanted’ break: the playing style
Shape-wise, United used 4–2–3–1 as their go-to formation week in week out. Their core outfield players in this system were: Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Victor Lindelof, Harry Maguire, McTominay, Fred, Marcus Rashford, and Anthony Martial. Besides them, there were a lot of rotations. Those occurred mainly in the right-winger and the attacking midfielder positions.
With less creative midfielders to use, Solskjaer built United as a notorious team on transitions. It means that the Red Devils were more active on forcing their opponents to make mistakes, then win the ball back to launch rapid counter-attacks. Per the statistics, United averaged 4.55 counter-attacks per league games before the suspension. From those, about 34.06% of them led into shots. They even made 12 counter-attacks against lower-table side Brighton and also made nine against newly-promoted team Sheffield United in November.
Another thing United were very good at prior to the suspension was making (and converting) penalties. The statistics show that United have won 10 penalties in the league before March. From those, six (60%) ended at the back of the opponents’ goal. It means that penalties have contributed to 13.63% of all United’s league goals (44) before football stopped. Quite a high number, indeed.
A blessing in disguise
Out of everyone’s prediction, United became a new monster since the return of English football. They have made six wins in the last eight games. It doesn’t stop there. They also have netted 21 times scored since Project Restart began. But, how did they do that?
Shape-wise, nothing has changed. Solskjaer stuck to the usual 4–2–3–1 on paper. However, the Norwegian altered his core players. First, Matic and Pogba went back to the regular line-up as the main midfield duo. The occasional rotations in the right-wing and attacking midfielder positions have also been discarded. Teenager Mason Greenwood and new recruit Bruno Fernandes are currently being United’s first option in the respective positions.
Despite playing with 4–2–3–1 on paper, sometimes United can also be found playing in a (lopsided) 4–3–3 on the pitch. It means that Pogba would leave his position and jump forward a bit alongside Fernandes at times, while Matic moving central to provide more balance. The Portuguese himself would play in between the lines, and move rather freely there.
Both midfielders could not play to their best without Matic’s presence behind them. The Serbian didn’t only provide defensive stability, but also more offensive support. If we look at his league average this season, he made 19.44 forward passes per game with 79.3% accuracy.
Those numbers spike massively after Premier League return. He completed 26 (92.85%) forward passes against Sheffield United, 22 (88%) versus Brighton, and 21 (95.45%) against Bournemouth consecutively. All of that came in only nine days. No wonder why the Red Devils offered him a three-year contract extension, which, as we know, he signed immediately.
The resurrection
Some may say that Man. United become totally new in this Project Restart. What do they mean by new? This section will check the numbers to answer that.
As we mentioned before, pre-pandemic United didn’t rely much on possession. Their ball-possession average until the Manchester Derby last March was standing at 53.69%. Surely not a special number for a gargantuan club, eh?
This summer, United averaged 61.08% possession from six league matches they have played. The Red Devils even got as high as 67.75% of ball possession when they defeated Bournemouth 5–2 at the Old Trafford on July 4. Such a feat underlines United’ dominance after the hiatus.
But, how about their chances? After all, the goal is the highest commodity in a football match. If a team have all the ball yet scoring no goal, then what’s the point? All foreplay, no penetration.
Prior to the league suspension, United averaged 5.52 (39.62%) shots on target from 13.93 attempts each match. Their averaged expected goals (xG) tally was standing at 1.57, while their rate of 1.52 goals per league game show that United had somewhat okay finishing quality.
The numbers change after football return. Now, Solskjaer’s men made 6.14 (44.3%) shots on target from 13.86 efforts per match. We can see that their total attempts stay the same, but their effectiveness increases. Let’s move to their xG. Their summer xG tally is currently standing at 1.72 per game, rising almost 10% from their season-average.
Yet, that’s not the best part. From seven league games United have played this summer, they managed to make 2.71 goals per game. It means that United spiked their goals per game tally by 1.19. That’s equal to 78.29% rise!
What else do we know?
One of the reasons behind United’s sky-rocketing goals post-hiatus was the brilliance of Greenwood. Earlier this year, I made a scout report on him for totalfootballanalysis.com. I found something interesting back then. That being Greenwood’s reluctance in making shots with his weaker foot. You can read the complete analysis here.
Yet, that particular weakness seemed to completely disappear right now. Greenwood has scored four goals this month alone, with two of them coming from his weaker foot. Even better, those shots have very low xG value. His second-half strike against Bournemouth was valued 0.11, and the goal against Aston Villa was only rated as low as 0.07.
How about United’s previous identity? We mentioned that they were very good in transitions as well as clinical in penalties prior to the suspension. But, how about now? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Per the statistics, United attempted 4.55 counter-attacks per games before the league stopped. From those, at least 34.06% of them led into shots. In the last 30 days, their counter-attacking efforts drop a bit to an average of 3.57 every game. Yet, the quality rises. They now have converted 40.05% of their counter-attacks into goal-scoring attempts. Even better, the Red Devils have made at least two goals from transitional attacks this month.
How about penalties? So far this summer, United have won three penalties and successfully converted all of them. It means that penalties have contributed to 14.28% of United’s mid-year goals. That’s even higher than their season average of 13.63%!
Conclusion
It’s safe to say that United have become a new monster in the last 30 days or so. Who would have thought Solskjaer will turn Rashford and co. into a happy-scoring possession-based team after the hiatus? Not only that, but they also keep their insane threat in converting transitions (… and penalties).
United now only have two games left in the league. Can they get the much-needed positive results to clinch a UEFA Champions League ticket for next season? Or, will they end their summer in an anticlimax?
Only time will tell.
Credits: Fbref, Premier League, Totalfootballanalysis.com, Transfermarkt, Understat, Whoscored, Wyscout, Youtube.
I‘m Petrick Sinuraya, a 23-year-old football writer based in Indonesia.
Currently, I work as a freelance writer at Ronnie Dog Media; mostly writing match analysis pieces for totalfootballanalysis.com.
For inquiries, please contact me at petricksinuraya@gmail.com.
