India is keeping long foot to counter China
Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently signed 15 strategic pacts with President Joko Widodo led the Indonesian government including one about defense ties. According to this agreement, India will have strategic access to the port which is going to be built on a small island of Sabang at the northern tip of Sumatra, close to the Malacca straight, one of the busiest sea routes in the world. Some experts hail it as a strategic move by India which gives a stage for it to check the Chinese movements in the region, which was greatly increased in recent times.
India is keeping a long foot in IOR (Indian Ocean Region) in order to counter the Chinese influence and movements but it will soon be going to backfire. India is trying to open up a Navy base in Seychelles island and now it has seen a major setback. Though India pulled off Sri Lanka from Chinese influence, they still own a strategic port in the small island nation. Iran is on the verge of getting collapsed because of the recent withdrawal of the USA from the nuclear treaties signed between them and hence Chabhar port can be a headache for India. More than 60% of India’s arsenal contains Soviet weapons and because of the recent Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, it cannot even buy the spare parts for its aging MiG fleets. In order to maintain its sovereignty over IOR and South Asia, India must have an effective combination of all wings i., Army, Air Force, and Navy. But the problem is, do we have that?
Unlike the USA or Russia or the recent addition of China, India doesn’t hold any overseas military bases. The role of both the Army and Air Force in this issue is greatly reduced and so it all comes to the Navy itself. The above image displays the Indian military presence in the foreign nations and clearly depicts that the Indian Navy’s potential role in countering China. Since India is surrounded by seas on three sides and the only country which has a potential for having and maintaining a huge Navy in the IOR, the Indian Navy plays a vital to maintain the status quo of the region. In order to satisfy that role, Indian navy must be equally efficient and powerful enough to deter any threats in the region
Yet, due to the decades of negligence and bureaucratic delays, which is one of the unique characteristics of India led the Indian Navy to a pity state. A Navy which has just one Aircraft carrier, 2 nuclear-powered submarines, 14 conventional diesel submarines, 11 destroyers, 13 frigates, and 22 corvettes is trying to compete with the country which has almost double of its numbers in each and every segment. Upon which the frigates and corvettes are literally of no use when it comes to a full-scale naval war because of the modern missile technologies that have been developed. While some of the people may argue that these counts are relatively large enough to go to war with any nation but actually it is not. It might be more than enough to defeat a nation like Pakistan but surely not enough to even face the Chinese in a full-scale war.
India’s edge over China:
Indian Navy has bought an Aircraft carrier from Britain (INS Vikrant) and has been operating since in the late 1960's itself. Carriers were once considered as a prestigious weapon, back in the Cold War-era since it greatly projects the image of the country it poses. The INS Vikrant even played a major role in liberating Bangladesh from Pakistan. But due to rapid development in Submarine technologies and its firepower, Carrier groups have become obsolete without any protection against submarines. Operating an Aircraft carrier is no easy task, it requires a lot of experience. Also, the Indian Ocean is famous for its unpredictable nature and sailing in the ocean with the vessel which had consumed a lot of money to build requires a crew that has more knowledge about the ocean they’re sailing into and more experience in maintaining the carrier. The Chinese understood that India has an edge over them in this one. That’s why they never concentrated on building a carrier for their own rather they were very keen on increasing its submarine force, the major enemy of the carrier group.
If there is a war between India and China, back in days, it was to happen only in the Northern and North Eastern borders of India. The Chinese never had a strategic upper hand over India in these regions, even back in 1962. During the Indo-China war, even though the Chinese had a large army and comparatively well-equipped infantry than India, it could penetrate only through few kilometers inside the Northern and North Eastern frontiers. Though caught by surprise, Indians even without manpower and weapons gave a tough fight against the Chinese. They knew that once the retreating Indian army starts regrouping and when Indian Air force starts using the fighters then the war will go bloody for them too. We will see why IAF hasn’t been used and how Indian High Command was misled during the war in upcoming posts.
So, the Chinese thought they will have a higher rate of success if the war is fought on the Indian mainland itself. To achieve that they have to land their forces on both western and eastern sectors of India and it can be done only if they surround India with its forces on all the sides. That’s why they have been trying to build the so-called string of pearls around the Indian borders. India after a sound sleep woke up and realized that it’s been surrounded by the dragon. To counter the Chinese the Indian government devised a plan in the ’90s called, “Look East” a policy to transform India from a regional power to a more global player. The GoI established various ties with the ASEAN countries in order to create a checkpoint for China in its backyard. Now the policy has been upgraded to “Act East”, to transform India from a Global player to Global power. India signed many pacts with ASEAN nations and the one mentioned above is an example.
As I said in one of my previous posts, What should India do to regain its title of South Asian Superpower again?, without proper Military strength, one country cannot be a Superpower. We are inferior to China in all aspects both Economically and Militarily. How the countries will align with India if they don’t think that it is not strong enough to protect them. People used to say, that’s why Military drills are conducted often. Yes! this will project the mightiness and readiness of our Armed forces to face a war, but to what extent?. Still, India is dependent on foreign nations especially the USA and Russia for its major arms import and still, India is lagging behind because of the money and more importantly time it costs India to reach India. China excelled in this section by developing its own weapons, though it is being an inferior and cheap copycat of the Russian and American weapons, which is a unique characteristic of the Chinese. But with every weapon they built, they improved and learned things. India is still trying to modernize its armed forces with a second all-time low defense budget since the ’62 war. Though being the largest importer of weapons in the world India is still trying to modernize its military and has to cover a long distance to achieve that.
India’s struggles to become modernize its military:
Under the “Make in India” scheme, Prime Minister Modi wants to build weapons in India but instead of building indigenous weapons, he is inviting market leaders to open up a shop here and this is where both the scheme and the nation fail. Sure, importing higher-end weapons like Rafale jets from France, buying Carbines from Americans and opening up joint ventures is a good move to gain the confidence of the west but on another side, one must think that why should the Americans sell advanced weapons to a country like India, a country which still somewhat maintaining a good distance from them, a country which is not a part of NATO or any other American led organization (except UN)?
I’m mean, they wouldn’t want another Asian country to rise to a power and question their authority! So they will simply sell the outdated weapons to India just like they did to NATO countries. And those weapons will not fare against the Chinese. Without building their own weapons, Armed forces will never be satisfied. Each and every military in the world will have its own requirements and can be met only if they build their own. Until India manufacturers its own weapons it cannot modernize its armed forces and without a modernized military that can fight a war in all dimensions, all the steps that India is taking to counter Chinese will be in vain.
Today India has got more allies than it has 20 years before. The USA is now pushing India to take more responsibility in the Asian region. It has even renamed its US Pacific command as Indo Pacific command to not only to cover the territory from East Coast of Africa to Western shores of America but also to give more importance for India in these regions because India is the only country in the Asian region which is capable of facing the Chinese aggression. Not only the USA but most of the developed nations are expecting more from India but can India fulfill those expectations? Well, the answer is complicated!! We will have to wait and see how India is going to perform for the next two decades!!
(Images were taken from Google search and I do not own any copywrites)
