Another Round, Another Upset
Picking huge upsets in a playoff series is a relatively cowardly enterprise that’s made to seem courageous by those calling them. “Going out on a limb” isn’t really any such thing, as two days after predictions are made, no one remembers them. Except if they were right. Then everyone knows about this stunning act of bravery.
Most of the time, I gravitate toward the moderate upsets, all of which I believe in my heart will happen. And my picks either pay off handsomely (Hawks over the Magic — told ya!) or do not (TrailBlazers over the Mavericks — oops).
I’ve spent a few hours looking at everyone’s prognostications, including the 412 people ESPN.com asked, and no one could’ve imagined that the Memphis Grizzlies, led by the twice cast-off Zach Randolph, a lesser Gasol (Marc), two of the NBA’s grittier players, Shane Battier and Tony Allen, could beat the San Antonio Spurs, the team with the NBA’s second-best regular-season record. And, to do so forcefully enough that it might actually send the current Spurs team spiraling toward dissolution. The Spurs looked old and tired. Tim Duncan seemed resigned to being bullied, and I was disappointed that the referees (who must not have gotten the pro forma “protect the superstars” memo) seemed inclined to let Grizzlies defenders pepper his back with forearm shivers. Even Tony Parker’s French smirk seemed forced.
I don’t think the Spurs made the mistake of looking beyond the Grizzlies, as some are contending; it seemed more like they got smacked in the face and shrank back, collectively figuring that it was not their year. It was like a reckoning, shockingly. With this next round, where bad blood only seems to be simmering in one match-up, the results should be more predictable: The Lakers rose to the occasion against the Hornets and should keep that going against the Mavs. Unlike the Spurs, the Lakers initially played a low-energy brand of hoops, but rallied under the peerless determination of Kobe Bryant, who is still such a dangerous offensive threat, even with a balky ankle. The Lakers, perhaps anticipating the same fate as the Spurs, added grit and hunger to their team last off-season with ugly winners (literally) Steve Blake and Matt Barnes to compensate for Derek Fisher, who now seems to be relying on muscle memory in big games. Chris Paul was amazing, and almost pulled it off, but one guy can only do so much.
The Mavericks resoundingly beat the Blazers, and so I must give them credit for that. Jason Kidd was rejuvenated, Dirk Nowitzki didn’t get rattled and the Blazers couldn’t put four strong quarters together. They were explosive, but the Mavs were able to withstand their runs. Unfortunately, Dallas will be coming up against a veteran team in the Lakers, whose ability to win big games and big series is unrivaled. I’m thinking six games, but I can see the Lakers putting them to bed in five.
I’m happy for Zach Randolph, I guess, but, as a Knicks fan, I don’t ever remember seeing the “blue collar player and blue collar worker,” as Randolph described himself after Friday night’s clinching game. He had an amazing series, a career series really, but I think his run ends against Oklahoma City, as the Thunder are everything the Spurs are not — young, athletic and hungry. They also have a stout interior defense with Serge Ibaka, Nazr Mohammed and Kendrick Perkins. Randolph won’t have as much freedom in the lane as he did against the Spurs. And he may actually have to leave his feet once or twice.
I don’t think that Memphis has an answer, defensively, for Kevin Durant, and Westbrook is reasserting himself at the right time. I’m sticking with my prediction that the Thunder will win it all. This series will be five games. The Grizzlies should be proud of themselves. And wait until next year.
Once upon a time, the Celtics were built to beat the Heat. Like, really beat the Heat. They had two experienced scorers (Paul Pierce, Ray Allen) that could compete with the Heat’s two scorers (LeBron James and Dwyane Wade), they had a range-y big man (Kevin Garnett) that could hold his own against the Heat’s range-y big man (Chris Bosh). And they had a true center in Kendrick Perkins — someone to provide interior defense, grab rebounds and maybe even score a little. Someone young with energy.
And someone the team traded away.
GM Danny Ainge can cite all kinds of reasons for his shocking decision — free agent Perkins was probably leaving after the season anyway — but no one considers the Celtics the “team of the future.” Other than the Mavs or Spurs, they are built to win today, right now, this year. Their window is closing. My fear is that, with the trade, the team has shut it on themselves. But the Celtics may still have enough to get past the Heat, who I saw struggle more against the high-energy Sixers than the series’ tally indicates. They may actually have the worst bench in the playoffs. I see this as a six- or seven-game series and I see the Celtics prevailing. But if the Heat win — and Game One was a good start, although the referee that ejected Paul Pierce should be benched for the series — the fault is all Ainge’s.
Okay, so, I’m going out on a limb here and picking an upset: The Atlanta Hawks will beat the Chicago Bulls. Since floating this idea to a few friends, their reactions were the same: Wanna bet? No, literally, they wanted to see if I would stand behind my choice. I would, but I hate taking people’s money.
I misjudged the Bulls last round, thinking they were going to steamroll the woefully less-talented Pacers. But what happened was that the Pacers played ferociously, the Bulls seemed content to sacrifice intensity, and Indiana came within a few bounces from pulling off a Grizzlies-style upset. Not sure what Carlos Boozer thinks he is accomplishing, but he needs to play defense, rebound and provide a physical presence. If a scrub opponent like Jeff Foster delivers flagrant fouls to your team’s stars (as he did to both Luol Deng and Derrick Rose), you need to respond in kind. Tattoos and growling don’t equal toughness, especially with those fussy, groomed eyebrows.
Derrick Rose is extraordinary, and bailed his team out against the Pacers. He again will be the best player in this series. And I like Deng and Kyle Korver, too. But the Atlanta Hawks are a more balanced team and have more experience on this stage. Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith will get the job done (and that’s even if Kirk Hinrich is severely limited). I see a team that is peaking at the exact right time and the Hawks will win the series in six games.
Courageous of me, I know.
Tony Gervino is a New York City-based editor and writer obsessed with honing his bio to make him sound quirky. He can also be found here.
Photo by Keith Allison, from Flickr.
