RUNNING TOWARDS THE ABYSS
A Second Trump Presidency Would Mean the End of Civilization
Right-wing plan would sabotage any attempts to combat the climate crisis
You might be looking at the headline and saying “Metzger is hyperbolizing for clicks again,” but you’d be wrong. I don’t need to exaggerate.
If human endeavour is a honey-laden hive buzzing with productive communal activity, Donald Trump is the ten-year-old kid who the neighbours say “ain’t right in the head”, whacking away at it with a baseball bat because a) someone told him it would make him popular and b) he doesn’t understand what a beehive is.
While we can usefully apply this metaphor to almost anything at which the Ex-President has tried his hand, from casino operations to international relations to pandemic management, it’s particularly true about the climate crisis.
So let’s connect some dots.
Climate change is still a thing
And getting worse, with 2023 the hottest year on record by a huge margin and probably the hottest in at least one hundred thousand years. And amid an endless series of climate change-related droughts, wildfires, floods and ancillary catastrophes, science is asking if global warming is accelerating.
A recent paper offers some new info to muse on, where “muse” is a euphemism for “be terrified.” The study looks at the state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC carries warm water from southern to northern latitudes, providing a heat infusion to temperate areas that might otherwise be sub-arctic, especially in Europe. Fresh water from ice melt in Greenland and the North Atlantic region is slowing down the AMOC and may shut it down entirely, with dire effects on the climate.
The research suggests that we may be closer to a tipping point than previously imagined, with potential consequences including:
…a very strong and rapid cooling of the European climate with temperature trends of more than 3°C per decade ...no realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes under an AMOC collapse.
Consider a scenario where tens of millions of climate refugees are heading south from Europe, even as Africans move north to escape drought and other climate change impacts. Boom.
How does Donald Trump fit into all this?
As usual, in the worst possible way.
Scientific American reports that a coalition of conservative groups have produced a document as part of their Project 2025, outlining what they hope to accomplish if Trump — or theoretically some other conservative loon — returns to the White House next year.
The paper is a vast, batshit crazy agglomeration of ignorance, fabrication, rage, bigotry, resentment, and paranoia — a Trumpian document if ever there was one.
However, for our purposes we need only reference the plans around climate change. A single sentence addressing the relatively modest climate efforts of the current administration gives the flavour:
…the Biden Administration’s climate fanaticism will need a whole-of-government unwinding.
The term “climate fanaticism” is used repeatedly about any attempt to save the human race from self-immolation, and the authors strongly favour burning every last drop or chunk of fossil fuel that we can find. A quick scan of the contributors finds many lawyers, business people, and right-wing think tankers, but few scientists.
A key element of the plan would be an executive order requiring that:
The next President should critically analyze and, if required, refuse to accept any (climate) assessment prepared under the Biden Administration.
While it’s unlikely that Trump has the wit or attention span to “critically analyze” anything at all, his previous term demonstrated great enthusiasm for reversing key initiatives of his predecessor just on general principle.
In addition, the report proposes the dismantling of the Inflation Reduction Act, the strongest climate legislation ever enacted in the US:
Support repeal of massive spending bills like the… Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established new programs and are providing hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to renewable energy developers, their investors, and special interests, and support the rescinding of all funds not already spent by these programs.
Project 2025 also demands that we “Stop the war on oil and natural gas”, which is another way of saying “stop the fight against catastrophic climate change”.
It’s worth noting that theoretical second-term Trump would be in no way bound by the proposals of this group of also-ran supervillains. Still, given his tendency to be easily swayed by anyone who compliments his tie, it’s likely he would take them very seriously indeed.
But the end of civilization?
Yep.
Here’s where the dots get connected, although you’ve likely gotten here already.
It’s widely understood that if we don’t take urgent action on greenhouse gas emissions, the coming decades will see climate chaos that will make us look back wistfully at the current crop of superstorms and megadroughts. We’re talking crop failures, flooded-out cities, resource wars, millions of refugees with no place to flee to.
The United States is the world’s largest economy and second-largest producer of greenhouse gases, after China. If the US abandons moral and practical leadership and promotes rather than reduces emissions, the world can’t make meaningful headway in the fight against climate change. Whether you’re a small-time rice farmer in Pakistan or an elderly former reality TV show host in DC, you’re going to be well and truly fucked.
Let’s hope America chooses wisely in November.
