Deal or No Deal
With the major league baseball trade deadline looming, let’s take a look at the trade market.
(All stats are from baseball-reference.com)
Seeing as this is the last weekend before the non-waiver trade deadline, it would help to have a big picture view of what the buyers and sellers will be haggling over as the contenders try to shore up their teams before the postseason and the rebuilding teams collect the top prospects for the future.
For this guide, I’ll be explaining:
- The top 5 names on the trade market
- Their current team
- Potential suitors
- The Best Possible Fit
- And finally, the Most Likely Destination
Everything clear so far. Okay, let’s play ball.
Chris Sale, LHP
Current team: Chicago White Sox
Suitors: Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees
Best Possible Fit: Boston Red Sox
Most Likely Destination: Texas Rangers
Chris Sale, when he isn’t giving locker room fashion advice, is a terrific left-handed ace and probably the best pitcher in the American League. He has a 3.17 ERA and a 3.70 FIP, he was this year’s AL All-Star starter and he’s under team control until 2018. With this year’s pitching market looking like a who’s who of bad Tinder dates, Sale represents the creme de la creme of the market. In fact, it would be Suicide Squad-level crazy for the ChiSox to trade him as he is their best player and only 27 years old. However, recent tensions with the Chicago front office (don’t run with scissors, kids) has led to a potential standoff. Any team would give their left arm for Sale’s but only a few have the immediate need and the necessary assets. Boston have a deep farm system with top prospects, including Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi, and need an ace pitcher to help their impressive lineup take the AL East. But Texas GM Jon Daniels has a reputation of going full JR and pulling off the big move. He traded for Cole Hamels last year, their ace Yu Darvish is hurt once more and they need ace-caliber pitching to hold off the Astros in the AL West. They also have a deep farm system with Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara creating a lot of interest. I think Sale will stay put but Texas will try hard to lasso him.
Andrew Miller, LHP
Current team: New York Yankees
Suitors: The whole freaking league
Best Possible Fit: Cleveland Indians
Most Likely Destination: Washington Nationals
You’d be forgiven if you’ve heard a bit too much about this guy. He is after all a relief pitcher on a team that isn’t going anywhere and the market for him seems ridiculously high. However, he is THE BEST relief pitcher on the market, he is a left-handed specialist and he could help any contender lockdown their bullpen. He has an 11.00 SO/W ratio and a 0.772 WHIP, is under contract till 2018 and can be a both a setup man or a closer. The Chicago Cubs were heavily linked to him until they acquired his former Yankee teammate, Aroldis Chapman which has actually helped increase his trade stock. You see, the Cubs gave up one of their top-prospect shortstops to get Chapman, who is only a rental till the end of this season. It would be fair to say then that Miller would attract a hefty price. The Cleveland Indians are enjoying a Cinderella season and could really use some left-handed bullpen help to keep it going past midnight. They have a decent farm system to work from, but it would be out-of character for them to pay top dollar and so I think they are more likely to go after a cheaper alternative like the Fresh Prince of Milwaukee, lefty reliever Will Smith. The Nationals, on the other hand, have not been skittish in the past and after missing out on their top target, which was Chapman, they could go after a nice consolation prize for their needy bullpen. I don’t know where for sure, but Miller will end up in the National League.
Jonathan Lucroy, Catcher
Current team: Milwaukee Brewers
Suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Cleveland Indians
Best Possible Fit: New York Mets
Most Likely Destination: Cleveland Indians
Lucroy is perhaps the most likely of the big names to be traded this weekend. He is 30 years old, in the last year of his contract and part of a team in the middle of a long-term rebuild. Luckily for the Brewers, Lucroy is having a great year and they can sell high. He has a .300/.361/.486 stat line and has had 13 HRs and 50 RBI. Most contenders could use his bat and defensive help at catcher. The Mets have had some bad luck this year as it it turns out their pitchers, like broken mirrors, are made of glass. Their current catcher, Travis D’Arnaud has had health concerns of his own and their lineup has been awful at batting in runners on base. Lucroy would help with both those problems but New York doesn’t have much to offer outside their talented pitching staff and last time these two teams tried to make a trade, they brought Wilmer Flores to tears. Cleveland have needed help at that positon even before their catcher, Yan Gomes got hurt. Lucroy would bring a big bat to a well balanced lineup and a fantastic pitching rotation. To me, the Indians are a perfect fit.
Chris Archer, RHP
Current team: Tampa Bay Rays
Suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers
Best Possible Fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
Most Likely Destination: Los Angeles Dodge…lol jk it’s the Tampa Bay Rays
This is a weird one and to fully explain it, some backstory is required. Archer, when he isn’t a debonair secret agent with mother issues, is a right-handed ace with a mean slider and is under team control through 2019. His team is also not terrible and likely to contend in the future thanks to a good pitching staff, so normally he would be untouchable. But wake up sheeple, we don’t live in normal times. The top pitcher on the market, unless you include Sale, is 36-year old Rich Hill of the Oakland Athletics. The Rays might see an opportunity to collect a kings ransom for Archer or one of their other young starters (Odorizzi, Moore, Ramirez). Problem is, Archer has been horrible. Along with the heavy drinking and misogyny, he has a 4.42 ERA and a 4.05 FIP which means if the Rays sold him, they’d be selling low. They are under no immediate pressure to sell and it would make more sense to wait and see how he develops as he gets older. That being said, the Rays GM has told other teams to “wow” him if they want Archer. He wants the Godfather offer. Just so happens, the President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers is the former Rays GM. That man is Andrew Friedman and he has seen his best player, Clayton Kershaw, go on the DL and is trying to find another way to catch up to the Giants in the NL West. He has the assests to “wow” Tampa Bay, but would Archer really be the answer for the Dodgers? I think not.
Rich Hill, LHP
Current team: Oakland Athletics
Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros
Best Possible Fit: Texas Rangers
Most Likely Destination: Boston Red Sox
Good news everyone, we’re nearing the end and we’ve finally reached the stalking horse of the trade market. Whilst it’s fun to mock Hill’s age and perceived value around the league, his ability to extend his career deserves respect. He focuses on using his curveball to get batters out due to his lack of velocity and has a 2.25 ERA and a 2.53 FIP this year. He is only under contract this year so he is a rental. However, he might be the best starting pitcher on this year’s market. Hill is currently suffering from a blister to his pitching hand so interested parties might be cautious, especially if the A’s demand too much. Texas could really use the rotation help but his rental status might put them off giving away too much. Boston’s GM Dave Dombrowski has no such qualms about giving away prospects if it gives his team the best chance to win. Plus, before pitching with the A’s, he was with the Red Sox last year and is familiar with pitching in Fenway Park. Rich Hill should be coping with the Green Monster very soon.
There you have it, sports fans. So sit back, relax and enjoy the chaos of the 2016 trade deadline.
