August Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines

July is almost over, and August, one of the rainiest months of the Philippines, is almost here.

What makes August interesting is the general direction of Tropical Cyclones (TC). August is around the middle towards the end of usual Habagat (southwest monsoon) season. Winds blowing from the southwest typically push TCs northward between the Philippines and Japan. While these moist winds bring in a whole lot of rainfall, they cause interesting numbers in terms of TC location and count.

August TC heatmap

PAGASA forecasts that in August 2019 around 2–4 Tropical Cyclones will form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [1]

In a span of 40 years, a total of 376 Tropical Cyclones formed in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Around 163 of these entered the PAR, while only 29 made landfall. In terms of averages, that’s an annual average of 4 TCs entering PAR in August, with less than 1 TC making landfall per year.

That’s not to say that these TCs are not dangerous. In the past decade, PAGASA retired the names of the following TCs: Typhoon Mina (2011, int. name Nanmadol), Typhoon Labuyo (2013, int. name Utor), and Typhoon Jose (2014, int. name Halong).

Interestingly, Typhoon Jose did not even have to make landfall in the Philippines to cause at least P1.6B damages to property [2].

Similarly, what PAGASA and the media dubbed as “Enhanced Habagat” events usually happen in August. Back in August 2012, Typhoon Haikui (no local name) and the southwest monsoon brought 1,007.5mm of rain in 3 days to the Philippines, causing ₱3 billion in damages, leaving 109 people dead [3].

A similar event happened in 2013, with Tropical Storm Maring (int. name Trami) caused 1,120.2mm of rain in 5 days.

Trami in 2013

Here’s to hoping that for August 2019, we get enough rain, but not too much to cause such damages.

References:

1. Tropical Cyclone Information, PAGASA. http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information (retrieved 30 July 2019)
2. Pagasa kills names of killer typhoons https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/671262/pagasa-kills-names-of-killer-typhoons
3. BY THE NUMBERS: Ondoy, Habagat 2012, Habagat 2013. (n.d.). Retrieved May 9, 2019, from Rappler website: http://www.rappler.com//newsbreak/39948-by-the-numbers-ondoy-habagat-2012-2013

Data:

1. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTraCS) v04 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index.php?name=ib-v4-access