July Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines

Between 1978 and 2018 a total of 250 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) formed in the North Western Pacific Ocean Basin. 152 of these entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with 52 making landfall.

In terms of annual averages, that’s an average of 6.25 TCs forming per year, with 3.8 TCs entering PAR, and 1.3 making landfall.

This is why quick estimates of possible TCs forming within PAR in July range between 2–3 TCs [1], that is if we strictly base our estimates on previous TC formation climatology. The lower estimates for this year are due to current El Niño conditions that cause stronger vertical wind shear [2]. This typically inhibits TC formation [3]. However, due to the warmer Sea Surface Temperatures that act as fuel for TC formation, it is also possible that TCs can become stronger if ever they do form.

[1] http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information (accessed 4 July 2019)

[2] https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G2.html (accessed 4 July 2019)

[3] https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climps/climateforum/climateoutlook.pdf (accessed 4 July 2019)