Why the Sixers Need Joel Embiid to Keep Shooting Threes
A below-average shooting center developing into a three-point threat? — “Trust the Process”
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JIMMY BUTLER WAS vexed and upset. He knew he had a playoff game to win, yet that could wait, for there was an issue he needed to solve.
His superstar center, Joel Embiid, wasn’t shooting his threes efficiently — but his confidence in taking them had fallen apart altogether.
“Shoot it!” Butler yelled whenever Embiid caught the ball with space to shoot.
On one three-pointer, after setting a screen and floating towards the three-point line, Embiid did a quick one-two step on the catch and held his follow-through high. The ball swished through the net.
“That’s why you shoot it,” Butler exclaimed back, in a confirmative and authoritative tone.
In the ensuing timeout, he walked up to the Sixers’ franchise center, saying, “I don’t care if you shoot the three every time,” to which Embiid responded, “I know.”
This game was the third of seven grueling games in the grudge between the 76ers and the Toronto Raptors. And in Game 3, Embiid broke out of his slump, scoring 33 points, grabbing 10 rebounds, and blocking 5 shots. It was this type of performance — comparable to Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tim Duncan — that made the Sixers build their entire franchise around Embiid, who had only started playing basketball in his late teenage years.
The Sixers won 116–95, far and away their most dominant performance of the season. And at the heart of the performance was Embiid, who was dominant while posting up, hitting face-up jump-shots, and even 3 much-needed three-pointers.
This game also gave us an insight into the continued development of Embiid, whose meteoric rise to superstardom has made many forget how much-unfulfilled potential he still has.
It says everything about the Sixers that even during a high stakes playoff game, the continued growth of Embiid is so central to their success. Essentially, the Sixers aren’t worried about Embiid’s current efficiency shooting jump-shots; instead, they are focused on down the line, when Embiid’s shooting will become a necessity.
“Take us home, take us home,” Butler urged — a plea which was emblematic of the Sixers, who need Embiid to fully realize his potential to become champions.
SHAQUILLE O’NEAL AND Charles Barkley were extremely irate.
It was half-time of a nationally televised matchup between the Sixers and the Nuggets, and O’Neal and Barkley were weighing in on Embiid and Nikola Jokić, respectively.
Never mind that Embiid had 14 points and 4 rebounds at the half, as all the TNT halftime show hosts could talk about was two numbers: Embiid and Jokić’s three-point attempts. As a less physical, less athletic center, Jokić essentially received a pass for shooting threes, though his percentages have precipitously fallen over the past two seasons. Embiid, on the other hand, had no reprieve from the unfiltered criticism of two Hall of Fame players.
Embiid finished the game with a line of 22/10/6, but O’Neal and Barkley weren’t finished critiquing Embiid.
“He’s the toughest player in the league to match up with, but we don’t talk about him the way we talk about Luka, Giannis, Anthony Davis, James — we don’t ever say that about him,” said Barkley after the game. “It’s frustrating for me, because I picked the Sixers to get to the Finals. They ain’t got no chance.”
Never mind that Embiid was having a great season in multiple facets of the game, including defensively and as a high-volume scorer; all O’Neal and Barkley thought about was the fact that Embiid didn’t score above 30 points, equating that fact to his low-volume three-point attempts. And somehow, Embiid’s three-point shooting was what was holding him back from becoming the best player in the league, according to O’Neal and Barkley.
“We’re telling you, ‘You can be great. You ain’t playing hard enough.’ Twenty-two ain’t enough to get you to the next level,” said O’Neal. “Do you want to be great or do you want to be good? If you want to be good, keep doing 22 points. You want to be great, give me 28, give me 30. You want to be great, watch Giannis — he wants to be great.”
Yes, Embiid’s game vs the Nuggets was statistically below average (though at that point of the season his stat-line was right at his season averages), but the criticism Embiid received was unsettling and unwarranted.
Because there was one thing, one facet of the game that O’Neal and Barkley, who played in less advanced NBA, could not understand.
Why was Embiid shooting so many threes?
O’Neal and Barkley had no explanation, no justification for why he shot threes — but they were both missing the point.
How Embiid and the Sixers would respond to O’Neal and Barkley’s criticism remained to be seen.
JOEL EMBIID SWUNG his arm into the air, yelling in triumph towards the TD Garden crowd.
Moments earlier, he had hit a decisive three-pointer to put the Sixers up 100–92 with just over 4 minutes to play in the fourth quarter. After setting a screen for Tobias Harris, he stepped into his shot confidently, despite the audible yell of a fan exclaiming, “Rebound, rebound, rebound!” as soon as he caught the ball. Embiid held his follow-through high, the ball softly splashed through the net, and he celebrated, knowing he had silenced his critics.
This game was a response to the intense criticism Embiid had faced earlier. With a line of 38/13/6 (and 2 three-pointers too), he fully looked like the dominant interior force that O’Neal had been urging him to be.
But watch this game again (Celtics vs. Sixers, December 12th), and it will quickly become apparent that Embiid is not the same player as O’Neal, Barkley, and other forces of nature who dominated at times with sheer size.
No, Embiid is playing in a different era, where his unique combination of footwork, grace, and technique paired with his size makes him unstoppable — and not just one of those factors exclusively.
For as many times as Embiid ran straight to the block for a post-up or dominated on the offensive glass, he hit face-up jump-shots, set strong screens, ran the floor in transition, or even hit threes.
He is a unique offensive specimen, one who shouldn’t be exclusively deployed in the post. This isn’t the NBA of old, and there are so many defenses, rules, and reasons why the isolation post-up isn’t the best offensive system — it should only be an offensive option.
He’s [Joel Embiid] the toughest player in the league to match up with, but we don’t talk about him the way we talk about Luka, Giannis, Anthony Davis, James — we don’t ever say that about him.
-Charles Barkley
And with every game that passes, Embiid continues to show why he is a unique offensive force and the NBA’s best center.
On a nationally-televised Christmas Day game vs. the Bucks, matched up against Giannis Antetokounmpo, whom O’Neal previously compared himself to due to Antetokounmpo’s relentless attacking of the paint, Embiid dominated. Though the Bucks had the best record in the NBA coming into the game, the Sixers fully looked like the more dominant team — spearheaded by Embiid.
Being guarded by the stout Brook Lopez, and with Antetokounmpo and a variety of long-limbed defenders nearby, Embiid didn’t attack through straight isolation post-ups, however.
Instead, he ran the floor in transition, took defenders off the dribble, hit face-up jump-shots, set screens, and took 6 threes, making 3 of his attempts. He did all of this damage on offense while also guarding Antetokounmpo, teaming up with Al Horford to hold him to 18 points on a putrid 29.6% field goal percentage.
Said color commentator Doris Burke of ESPN, who was at the game, “You can deploy him [Embiid] all over the floor,” adding, “this guy is a monster talent.”
And indeed, at the end of the game, Embiid finished with an O’Neal-Esque 31 points and 11 rebounds, while barely playing in the fourth quarter because the Sixers led by as much as 29.
Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, took 7 threes while being dared to shoot by the 76ers, and he missed all of his attempts.
Embiid responded to O’Neal and Barkley’s criticism in person, saying, “I like being criticized. For them to say I have the potential to be the best player in the world and I haven’t shown that. They’ve been there, they’ve done it, they’re Hall of Famers so it just shows me that I’ve got to play harder and I’ve got to be dominant like I can.”
He concluded, “I think it was great for me.”
FOR AS INEFFECTIVE as he has seemed when shooting threes, Embiid is a very effective shooter with a broader perspective.
As a rookie, he was an above-average three-point shooter at 36.7%, though this was on the lowest volume of his career (3.2 attempts per game). His shooting would influence how teams guarded him, as many centers defended him on the perimeter as his shooting was on the level of Karl Anthony-Towns — though, with hindsight, his shooting ability isn’t even close to Towns.
But what is the value, the reason behind the shooting craze in the NBA? Sure, some players are terrific shooters, but the reason teams encourage average shooters to station themselves behind the arc is simple: it unlocks creativity and space on offense.
For Embiid, three-point shooting has unlocked his most effective, yet simple move: the pump fake and the drive.
Almost every center seems to fall for Embiid’s pump fake — a slow, over-extended raising of the ball that exaggerates his shooting motion. And after faking out his defender, Embiid can show off his terrific speed as he forays to the rim. With a full head of steam, defenders can only foul him, hoping he doesn’t convert his shot. This phenomenon has lead to him being the most prolific foul-drawing player outside of James Harden since entering the NBA.
Even if defenders don’t bite for Embiid’s fake (teams are adopting a “no-jumping policy” on his pump fakes), he can still waltz into mid-range jump-shots, where he shoots an above-average 40% for his career.
Still, the Sixers see even more value in Embiid shooting threes besides adding to his offensive arsenal. The Sixers have invested in Ben Simmons, who essentially refuses to shoot threes, and Al Horford, a lower-volume three-point shooter. All of this clogs the lane for Embiid, who has to find ways to exist on offense when Simmons, Horford, or even Tobias Harris need room in the paint.
The simplest solution? Have Embiid spot-up behind the three-point line.
Also, in the era of load management, three-point shooting is a way for Embiid to alleviate the stress on his body — while still playing in games. It is so important that Embiid, who is fragile at worst and injury-prone at best, develops a three-point shot because doing so will mean he doesn’t have to put his body on the line until the NBA Playoffs, when every game matters.
This season, his shooting numbers are up: 33.0% from three and 83.8% from the free-throw line, all of which are up from last year on a slightly decreased volume.
Even if the Sixers wanted to post-up Embiid 20–25 times a game like O’Neal suggests (he is still by far the leader in post-ups this season), they couldn’t do so for 2 reasons that feed into each other.
First, doing so would alienate the other 3 stars on the team, whom the Sixers have invested over $447 million in over the next 5 years. The Sixers have built a core of athletic, two-way stars, but they sacrificed three-point shooting as a result.
Second, teams run a zone defense against the Sixers more than against any other team in the league. And with the Sixers’ iffy outside shooting, they are justified in using this strategy. Zone defense has seen a revival in today’s NBA — and it is something that O’Neal and Barkley didn’t have to deal with.
Without the ability to shoot threes, Embiid will never be able to fully take advantage of zone defenses, as zone defenses eliminate post-up chances.
Back in O’Neal and Barkley’s heyday, there was an “illegal defense” rule that banned zone, and the three-second violation on offense wasn’t initiated until O’Neal became too overwhelming. Compare that to today, where rules favor playing a perimeter-oriented style.
If one of Embiid’s former teammates, like J.J Redick or Marco Bellinelli get the slightest amount of contact behind the arc, they are going to the line for three free-throws. If Embiid is grabbed, mangled, and pushed in the lane, there is only a 50/50 chance he will get the call.
How is Embiid supposed to post-up when surrounded by three long-armed, athletic defenders in a zone? That is a question that Barkley and O’Neal, even when at the peak of their abilities, would not be able to answer.
FOR BETTER OR for worse, the Sixers have put themselves in a position where Embiid is the nucleus of their team and organization.
And in the playoffs thus far, the Sixers’ bid on Embiid being the most singularly dominant force on the court at any given time simply has not paid off. His numbers in the playoffs — 21.4/12.6/3 in his initial playoff run and 20.2/10.5/3.4 last year — have been good, but not great.
It is the playoffs where O’Neal and Barkley’s criticism should be focused on Embiid, and not the regular season, where teams often spend a cursory amount of time planning for each game. Embiid has had his moments in the playoffs, like the aforementioned Game 3 show he put on against the Raptors and a clutch 31/16/7/6 against Brooklyn in the first round.
But there has been a consistent theme surrounding his playoff struggles.
Against Miami and Boston in 2018, Embiid’s scoring efficiency plummeted as he not only faced off against terrific defenders, but he had to adjust to wearing a mask — caused by a freak accident in which Embiid fractured his orbital bone.
And the 2019 Playoffs were arguably the greatest proof of why Embiid needs to continue to grow as a three-point shooter. Remember, in 2018–2019, Embiid averaged 27.5 points and 13.6 rebounds in 33.7 minutes per game. These averages were dominant but wore him down, which is something to keep in mind regarding his playoff run.
Even in Game 1 of the playoffs, Embiid’s availability was already in question as he was a game-time decision. The team had to put him on a minutes restriction, and he played sparingly in the first two games as he was bothered by pain. The Sixers went 1–1 in those games. By Game 3, he had to miss a playoff game.
Against Toronto, a much more formidable opponent, he struggled with illness and recurring knee tendinitis, especially in Games 2 and 4, where he shot a combined 4 of 14. His passivity and non-aggression in those games were a telling sign: he was still not recovered from the regular season.
His injuries were caused directly by him deciding to go all-out during the regular season in an ill-fated MVP bid. With a better jump-shot, Embiid wouldn’t need to put such stress on his body during mostly meaningless regular-season games.
Still, Embiid and the Sixers made it to a Game 7, where their flaws were magnified. With Toronto packing the paint with Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Kawhi Leonard, and Pascal Siakam, Embiid took six threes and many other jump-shots.
“He needs to stop settling,” commented Greg Anthony of TNT.
Yet, with Embiid seeing two defenders every time he caught the ball — and Philadelphia’s players outside of Harris and J.J. Redick struggling from outside — it made more sense for him to set screens for ball-handlers and shoot face-up jump-shots.
Analytically, Embiid’s per-minute dominance showed not only his greatness but the lengths at which Philadelphia needed him on the court. In that same fateful Game 7, Embiid played 45 minutes and 12 seconds, during which the Sixers were a +10 (they won those minutes by 10 points). Yet, the Sixers would go on to lose by 2 points.
Imagine what the point differential would be if Embiid’s jumper was falling and he limited his turnovers; the Sixers must be asking that same question.
Embiid walked off the Scotiabank Arena in tears following the buzzer-beating, gut-wrenching loss, equally as disappointed in his performance and inability to remain healthy. The Sixers are hoping that, because of an improved jump-shot, the next time he walks off the playoff stage, the roles will be reversed, and he will be the champion celebrating his success.
Like O’Neal and Olajuwon before him, he will have to overcome obstacles in his path to becoming an all-time great.
His greatest hurdle? Developing a consistent three-point shot.
All stats via Basketball Reference
First Image: Link
Quotes obtained second-hand via: ESPN and CBS Sports
