Week 10: NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid
With the crazy sequence of bad busts over the past few weeks, I’ve decided to switch up the format a little bit. The format now is more reminiscent of a stat sheet than a set of observations. The hope is that historical precedent takes the wheel and steers bettors clear of any human error. If this format doesn’t improve the amount of picks predicted correctly per week, then I’ll revert back to the more observational approach next week. For now, however, happy betting!
Lock
Buccaneers vs. WFT: Buccaneers
Buccaneers (-9.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 138
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 78
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7–9
- Advantages: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL
Football Team (+9.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 55
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 76
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11–5
- Advantages: TE, DB
Safe Picks
Rams vs. 49ers: Rams
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 117
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 80
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6–10
- Advantage: QB, RB, WR, OL DL, DB
49ers (+3.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 78
- 89 with Jimmy Garoppolo (Trey Lance started against Cardinals in game 1)
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 100
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1–3
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6–6
- 49ers played Cardinals twice in four weeks
- Advantages: TE, LB
Jaguars vs. Colts: Colts
Jaguars (+10.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 56
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 94
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1–3
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 8–8
Colts (-10.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 137
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 85
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 5–11
Panthers vs. Cardinals: Cardinals
Panthers (+10.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 56
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 90
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1–3
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 10–6
- Advantages: RB, DB, DL
Cardinals (-10.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 110
- Points Scored Over Last 4 Weeks Without Kyler Murray (1 Game): 31
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 60
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 4–0
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6–10
- Advantages: QB, WR, TE, OL
Falcons vs. Cowboys: Cowboys
Falcons (+8.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 97
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 92
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6–10
- Falcons Advantages: QB*
- Dak with a groin injury couldn’t clear Teddy Bridgewater
Cowboys (-8.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 131
- I skipped Minnesota because Cooper Rush started that game
- 105 points including the Minnesota game
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 105
- Minnesota is included in this stat because starters played that game
- Without Minnesota, points over last 4 weeks is 131
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 9–7 (including Minn)
- 8–8 with Minnesota notwithstanding
- Dallas advantages: RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB
- Even if Pitts is better than Schultz/Jarwin, two is better than one
Bills vs. Jets: Bills
Jets (+13.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 97
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 116
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1–3
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11–5
- Advantages: N/A
Bills (-13.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 101
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 71
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 10–6
- Advantages: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, DB
Avoid
Lions vs. Steelers: Steelers
Lions (+6.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 53
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 125
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 0–4
- Opponent Record Over Past Weeks: 9–7
- Advantages: QB*
Steelers (-6.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 94*
- Surprisingly not important with Rothelisberger out*
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 76
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 4–0
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6–10
- Advantages: RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, TE
Other Picks
Eagles vs. Broncos: Broncos
Eagles (+1.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 112
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 94
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1–3
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7–9
- Advantages: QB, WR, TE, OL, DL, DB
Broncos (-1.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 85
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 67
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7–9
- Advantages: RB, LB
Seahawks vs. Packers: Packers
Seahawks (+3.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 78
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 66
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1–3
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11–5
- Advantages: QB*, WR, TE, DB, LB
- Note: Russell Wilson might be activated this week
Packers (-3.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 79
- Points Scored Over Last 4 Weeks With Aaron Rodgers: 97
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 59
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks; 3–1
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks With Aaron Rodgers: 4–0
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6–10
- Advantages: RB, OL
- Aaron Rodgers has been activated off the COVID-19 list
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Chiefs
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 67
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 64
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 9–7
- Advantages: WR, TE, OL, DL, DB
Raiders
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 92
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 99
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 5–11
- Advantages: QB, RB, DL, LB
- Derek Carr has been better than Mahomes this year, I said it
Vikings vs. Chargers: Vikings
Vikings (+3.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 101
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 99
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7–9
- Advantages: DL
Chargers (-3.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 104
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 127
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7–9
- Advantages: QB, TE, OL, DB
- RB, WR are very even
Saints vs. Titans: Titans
Saints (+3.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 97
- Since losing Jameis Winston vs. TAM: 61
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 86
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Since losing Jameis Winston vs. TAM: 1–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 10–6
Titans (-3.0)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 113
- Since Losing Derrick Henry: 28
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 88
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks 4–0
- Since Losing Derrick Henry: 1–0
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11–5
Browns vs. Patriots: Patriots
Browns (-2.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 82
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 82
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2–2
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11–5
- Advantages: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL
Patriots (+2.5)
- Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 134
- Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 72
- Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3–1
- Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7–9
- Advantages: LB, DB
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
Originally published at https://thebirdsblitz.com on November 14, 2021.