Week 7: NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid
I might just be getting older, but I can’t believe it’s already week seven in the NFL season. The season often seems to fly by once it gets going for some reason. This year, it only took half a season to figure out the difference between the contenders and the pretenders. The Eagles sadly look like they’re going to be on the outside looking in, but that doesn’t mean the playoff picture isn’t looking great so far for the quality of the sport.
Lock
Lions (+16.0) Vs. Rams (-16.0)
At least Davis Mills has looked good over the past couple of weeks. The Lions have yet to score 20 points, and they’re going against one of the best overall teams in the league. Michael Brockers wasn’t lying when he said that Matt Stafford was an upgrade over Jared Goff. Goff knows better than anyone that the Rams are a Super Bowl team (he led them to a Super Bowl appearance in the 2018–19 season). Appropriately, Stafford knows better than anyone how big of a mess the Lions are.
Safe Bets
WFT (+8.0) Vs. Packers (-8.0)
The Packers defense is not good, but Rodgers is (what else is new). The Washington defense was overrated coming into the season and Taylor Heinicke is no more than a meme quarterback (that’s new). Everything Washington can do, Green Bay can do better. Washington has a one-two punch in Antonio Gibson and JD Mckissick? Enter Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Washington has a top receiver in Terry McLaurin? Say hello to Davante Adams. Though they are similar in many ways, Green Bay is simply a better version of Washington, and I don’t anticipate the inferior team to prevail.
Eagles (+3.0) Vs. Raiders (-3.0)
It pains me to pick against the Eagles. However, Las Vegas has a loaded offense, and last week against the Broncos proved that they haven’t missed a beat. Eagles have the benefit of having a top (no) flight passing defense, but will unfortunately not be likely to hold Jacobs and Kenyon. Philadelphia has an ugly habit of losing in the trenches, and until that little detail is fixed, Las Vegas is going to be able to do as they please with the defense, even if the Birds can cover them early.
Texans (+18.0) Vs. Cardinals (-18.)
Davis Mills has improved over the past few weeks. That’s not going to be enough to beat the hottest team in the NFL. Murray is an MVP candidate while Mills is in the camp of ‘rookie still learning the game.’ It doesn’t help that there’s an abject lack of talent on Houston and being in trouble for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t help that Whitney Mercilus (decent starting edge rusher) and Andre Roberts (pro bowl returner). One of the worst teams in the league just got worse, and the end result for Houston won’t be pretty.
Avoid
Chiefs (-4.5) Vs. Titans (+4.5)
Chiefs can’t coast to wins off reputation, and they’re facing a team that just beat arguably the best team in the AFC. Meanwhile, Mahomes is coming off of an ugly game where he played uglier than the final score suggests. If I had to pick, I say Tennessee wins because Derrick Henry chews even the best run defenses alive, and Kansas City is… not that. In fact, the Chiefs defense is last in the league according to DVOA. Prayers to anyone who plays against him in fantasy this week.
Other Picks
Jets Vs. Patriots: Patriots
This game is actually relatively easy to predict since these two teams faced each other earlier in the year, as they faced each other week two. The Patriots won 20–6. Since that game, New England has shut down two of the best offenses in the league (Dallas, Tampa Bay). In the four games since then, Zach Wilson has thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions. With how good the Jets have(n’t) been this year, I doubt their efforts will be enough.
Panthers Vs. Giants: Giants
I’m picking against Carolina for two reasons this week. Well, three: Sam Darnold has as many picks as he does touchdowns, the Panthers have a history of choking after a strong start to their season, and they’ve beaten the Texans, the Jets (barely), and the Saints (impressive). Carolina are frauds, sadly. It’s slowly becoming apparent that they are not doing any damage this season. If Carolina manages to lose to the Giants, they will slip from ‘disappointment’ to ‘in danger.’
Ravens Vs. Bengals: Ravens
This one feels like it’s gonna be close. To be doing what he’s doing on a bad team like he is is honestly impressive. Having a receiver like Chase helps, even if I think they should’ve gone after Sewell. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, I think Baltimore is just going to be too much. The game will likely be a 27–24 type affair in Baltimore’s favor. That is, assuming Burrow isn’t perturbed too much by his throat contusions.
Bears Vs. Buccaneers: Bears
This is my upset of the week. The reason that I’m predicting Chicago to pull away with the win is because of what happened last year. If Foles were to start for the week, it would be an automatic win (as we all know, Foles owns Brady). However, as Chicago is unlikely to make decisions based on superstition, Fields will likely be the starter again. The receivers will likely have a field day with that Buccaneers secondary. If Fields can hit them, Chicago might just have a shot. If luck is on the Bears’ side, Brady might even forget what down it is again.
Colts Vs. 49ers: 49ers
Wentz has played really good football over the past three weeks. Unfortunately, his wins were against the Dolphins and Texans, and his best game (possibly of his career) resulted in a loss. In order to earn respect back, he’s going to have to beat a solid 49ers squad. Same goes for Lance. The Colts defense has been playing well over the past few weeks, and the team is getting healthier by the week. Despite each team’s expectations, this is a desperation game for both. The playoffs are within reach for both, but losing one game would likely take each out of the equation.
Saints Vs. Seahawks: Saints
Winston has been surprisingly good at protecting the ball this season. It’s doubtful that he’s the same quarterback that he was a few years ago, where he put up 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season, but he can still win games with him (he’s 4–2 on the season if my math is correct). Geno Smith faced a good Pittsburgh defense last week and held his own, putting up 20 points and coming within a hair of pulling off an upset. However, Roethlisberger is not the same quarterback as he once was, and Smith has the label of a career journeyman. Unless the Seahawks defense steps up, Smith isn’t going to be able to match Winston’s production.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
Originally published at https://thebirdsblitz.com on October 24, 2021.
