Week 8: NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid
This is… probably the worst week of the NFL this year. There’s only two or three games this week that seem worth watching from an outsider’s perspective (assuming you’re not a fan of one of those six teams). Well, money is money, and there are a couple cracks in Vegas’ armor this week. Fortunately, your eagle-eyed accomplice (no pun intended) doesn’t miss anything.
Locks
Rams (-14.5) vs. Texans (+14.5)
I’ll admit, despite their record, the Lions played the Rams surprisingly close last week. A testament to Detroit’s coaching, or a bad sign for Los Angeles? Both Houston and Detroit are bad teams, but at least Motown has heart. After Mark Ingram was traded, the locker room took a hit. Brandin Cooks was not happy, and I imagine that he’s not the only irked veteran. Even without a potential locker room revolt, the Texans have scored more than 10 points once in a month. If Tyrod Taylor ends up being activated and takes the QB spot from Davis Mills, then things will get interesting, as Taylor actually played well in the three or four games he played this season. Alas, my money’s on the Rams regardless, as there is no saying Taylor would play well.
Safe Bets
Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Vikings (+1.5)
Picking the Cowboys to win. Ew. Against my better judgement, I sadly can’t deny that Dallas has been on fire this year. Dak has evolved past being a QB carried by talent. He’s an MVP candidate that can go toe-to-toe with any signal caller in the league. I’ve said this before, but Kirk Cousins is underrated. Unfortunately, he’s also allergic to primetime. My rooting for Minnesota is rooted in Eagles fandom and hope. Meanwhile, my picking the Cowboys is based on begrudging observations. Pretty much everything about Dallas is towards the top of the league, and I have to pray that Justin Jefferson eats the Cowboys defense alive (maybe he’ll have extra motivation because he’s on the same field as Ceedee Lamb).
Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Saints (+5.5)
I haven’t forgotten that the Saints swept the Bucs last year, and I’m sure Brady hasn’t forgotten either. Drew Brees is now gone, and Jameis Winston is a question mark at quarterback. It’s hard to know just what version of Winston will show up. Meanwhile, Brady is going on round 20 with Father Time. It’s not like Winston will be able to be overly reliant on Alvin Kamara, either, as Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in the league. Maybe Mark Ingram is the difference maker that New Orleans needs, but NOLA’s victory depends on Winston abusing TB’s banged up secondary, and I’m not sure he’s able to do that consistently.
Bills (-13.5) vs. Dolphins (+13.5)
I hesitate to call this a surefire bet because I don’t know how the Bills are going to look coming out of the bye. I know that the Dolphins aren’t very good (which is surprising, considering how they overperformed last year). As for Buffalo, week one is the best hint for how the team will perform (the offseason was essentially an elongated bye week). Losing to Rothelisberger after scoring less than 20 points might be a sign of an upset. Fortunately for Buffalo, Miami is not a very good team. Also fortunately for Buffalo, the two played earlier in the year. The Bills won 35–0.
Bengals (-10.5) vs. Jets (+10.5)
One or two years ago, this probably would have been a tank bowl. In 2021, after years of suffering, the Bengals are a legitimate team. The Jets however… Well, at least the Bengals are looking improved. Unfortunately for Jets fans, Zach Wilson will be unavailable this week, and likely for a while. Fortunately for them, they have the options of checks notes Joe Flacco and Mike White. Um.. Yeah, Jets fans, maybe don’t tune in this week.
Titans (+1.5) vs. Colts (-1.5)
I’m an Eagles fan who is happy to see that Wentz is playing some of the best ball of his career, even without the snap tracker. Both Indianapolis and Tennessee are on a two-game win streak, but not all wins are equal. The difference is the Colts beat the Texans and the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Titans just beat the Bills and the Chiefs. Needless to say, Tennessee’s wins are much more respectable (though the Colts did score 30 in a monsoon). With that said, I’m picking against Vegas this week and saying Titans win (in case there was any confusion)
Avoids
49ers (-4.0) vs. Bears (+4.0)
This is a game that legitimately scares me. Justin Fields is a rookie that isn’t ready for a full-time starter job, but Jimmy Garoppolo is a veteran that routinely misses throws. Matt Nagy is likely fired after this year, but fans are falling out of love with Kyle Shanahan due to roster construction over the years. I predict this will come down to one or two big throws that one of two quarterbacks will miss, and I can’t predict which team will blink first. This game is likely going to be as ugly as the Saints-Seahawks game last Monday. I’ll say for the sake of argument that San Francisco wins, as Chicago struggled to put up points on one of the most injured secondaries in the league (Tampa Bay).
Browns (-3.5) vs. Steelers (+3.5)
If Case Keenum is the starter again, then I’m going to side with the Steelers. Pittsburgh isn’t great or anything, but Cleveland is far too injured to do any damage (unless D’Ernest Johnson is the next Jim Brown). Cleveland beat Denver last week, but the latter has an equally questionable quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. Bad/questionable quarterbacks often make for interesting betting situations, but not necessarily one that is comfortable. Based on both teams’ issues at QB, I’ll say avoid this one.
Packers (+6.5) vs. Cardinals (+6.5)
Two elite quarterbacks are going to take the field this Thursday. The difference between the two, however, is that Green Bay really can’t afford to lose anyone, especially on defense. For an offense that is dependent on its offensive firepower, missing most every key weapon except Robert Tonyan and Randall Cobb isn’t a recipe for success. Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are likely going to be unavailable for this weekend. Unless Aaron Rodgers can catch his own passes, it’s hard to imagine Green Bay beating the hottest team in the league right now, despite how rightly revered Aaron is.
Panthers (+3.0) vs. Falcons (-3.0)
Holy. This is not a good week for betting. At the very least, I won’t be missing much in the 1:00 time slot. Both teams have 3 wins, and this is a divisional matchup, so the two teams will likely play hard. I’ll say Falcons win because they are favored and because they actually learned how to use Kyle Pitts since week one. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense just looks lost without Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers defense is better, admittedly, but Sam Darnold was benched for PJ Tucker. Atlanta is bad, but Carolina is crumbling.
Tank Bowls
Lions (0–7) vs. Eagles (2–5)
Detroit: I would not go quarterback. Goff has been pretty underwhelming this year, throwing 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. However, there’s not an Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence type of must-have prospect that might be able to replace him. Detroit has more to gain from drafting an elite prospect than they have from letting go of Goff. If they do go QB, I recommend saving it for the second round and taking Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati) . I’m high on him and think taking him with a second rounder addresses an area of need while not breaking the bank
Philadelphia: Reports say that Howie Roseman will be using draft capital to bring a QB to Philadelphia. I don’t like it, I think we should give Hurts more time to grow. However, it’s not worth even debating whether or not the Eagles might. It’s a matter of when. With that said, the popular names right now are Malik Willis and Matt Corral. There’ll be plenty of time to debate which guy the Eagles should take, and this conversation may even be irrelevant if Hurts improves.
QB aside, the Eagles need help in the defense. To be honest, I don’t know how much blame lies with the personnel and how much lies with Gannon. One thing is true, however: Gannon likes to use his linebackers, a position the Eagles have failed to invest in for 40 years. The Eagles currently has the fifth overall pick (becomes the third overall pick with a loss to Detroit). If the Lions beat Philadelphia, Kayvon Thibideaux is a reality. As of October 28, 2021, the Eagles have two first round picks. I’m using the second first round pick on If not, I’m going Derek Stingley from LSU. If that fails, trade back and take Christian Harris out of Alabama.
Seahawks vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville: Jaguars got their franchise QB last draft, so that somewhat narrows down where they need to turn their attention. With that said, I’ll say that the Jaguars should go defense this year. If I’m the Jaguars, I snag Derek Stingley. CJ Henderson ended up being a bust, and Jalen Ramsey was traded in 2019, so Duval County still needs a lockdown corner. If Stingley isn’t available, take Andrew Booth Jr. It’s hard to think of many stars (m)any stars on Jacksonville’s defense apart from Josh Allen (not the Buffalo QB).
Seattle: Russell Wilson has been covering up this team’s deficiencies for years. Wilson was drafted in 2013, and he’s the most sacked QB since 2010. I would recommend Seattle take Alabama OT Evan Neal… if the Seahawks had a first round pick.
Other Picks
Patriots vs. Chargers: Patriots
I haven’t forgotten how Bill Belicheck embarrassed Herbert last year. It’s not possible that the Chargers get shut out again, is it? Nobody would argue that Mac Jones is better than Justin Herbert, but football is a team sport, and even without Brady, Belichick is a defensive savant. Not to mention, Chargers are towards the bottom of the league in stopping the run, and Damian Harris has really come into his own as RB1 in James White’s absence. Call it the mystique of Belichick, but I hesitate to bet against him.
WFT vs. Broncos: WFT
A team with questions at QB but a supposedly elite defense. I just described both these teams with the same qualifier. The difference between them, however, is the amount of faith I have. Even though Washington is a divisional rival, and I probably shouldn’t be taking them for that reason, Denver has scored 20+ points once in the past four games. Washington’s offensive struggles have not been as bad, but it’s been somewhat close. Neither team necessarily inspires fear, but two bad teams have just as much chance of making a good game as two good teams.
Giants vs. Chiefs: Chiefs
Kansas City isn’t as invincible as they once were. The funny thing is that a lot of weakness come from their own faults. How does one go from 27–5 in two years to 3–4 and bailed out by high end talent? Offensive philosophy. Kansas City has done well to get this far, but, and I’m mystified that I’m saying this, they aren’t as good as we originally thought. Fortunately, they’re facing a franchise that has their own issues to work through, and the Chiefs will likely pull out the win because Daniel Jones is unreliable; the offensive line is not very good; and all the skill players on offense are hurt. Hear this, though, Chiefs fans: Mahomes has 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions if you take away the one game he played against Philadelphia.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
Originally published at https://thebirdsblitz.com on October 28, 2021.
