The Week To Be In Crypto [05/06/2019]
See this and more on Cent — https://beta.cent.co/@jonto
Market Overview
I apologize in advance. There has been a pretty strong correlation to me taking weeks off from writing the weekly update and positive moves in crypto prices. Bitcoin has had some nice moves up and Ethereum has been ranging between 150–180. If I had to make a call I wold say we fall short of 6000 before dropping back somewhere into the 4,500 range for BTC sometime in the summer and then moving on and approaching 10k sometime in the fall after finally breaking 6k. I do not have sophisticated numbers for this, it is just the product of absorbing a lot of different opinions in the space. Gut calls and predictions are great but as Nassim Taleb says “One does not eat forecasts”. So you need to have to confidence to do something with these predictions for them to mean anything. I am attempting some swing trading with about 5% of my bitcoin and ethereum throughout this “trudge upwards”. I will try and report on results periodically but its all “gut trading” so numbers will be quite unscientific.
I have included some charts below from folks with decent twitter presences (follower counts in parentheses)
Different “chartists” have different approaches but they, and all predictive models for bitcoin and crypto prices, have one major flaw. There have been really only 2 boom and bust cycles since the inception of crypto. Two inputs does not make a robust sample but its all we have. There is A LOT of effort right now going into figuring out which metric (visual or formulaic) is a reasonable predictor of price. What I really want to know when looking at predictive models though is who is actually trading off of their indicators, who has skin in the game? It will be a long time to see what is successful beyond just a coin flip so while navigating the “calls” and “hot takes” keep everything in perspective and remember that no one “knows” and being “right” once or twice doesn’t mean a model actually works. Follow the money behind any prediction, find what makes sense to you, and then use that to make decisions about your own capital deployment.
What I’m Buying
Pretty much all of the altcoins I have bought recently have performed quite poorly in relation to BTC. I am back to just sitting on my long term moonshots and doing some light swing trading on BTC and ETH. My thought with swing trading — “If I get this wrong am I OK at holding this asset at any price in this range?”. Right now that is only true for me for BTC, ETH, and REN.
If I had to guess ETH will outpace BTC over the next 2–3 months, yes it has recovered a higher % from the “bottom” but it also has a lot further to run back to its all time high.
And remember to keep STACKING SATS
Recommended Media
Read
Books I’m working through right now
Listen
What Grinds My Gears is required Tuesday appointment listening right now
Follow Me
twitter: https://twitter.com/Tompkins_Jon
linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathantompkins
telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/FqrpRUo8CKHV8gGKRuNNNQ(we have a few people now, join in!)
