The Week To Be In Crypto [12/31/2018]
Market Overview
I skipped a week, the market adds a couple dozen billion in mktcap so figured I would see if skipping another week would keep it going (it didn’t).
This time last year bitcoin euphoria had peaked and we were nearing the apex of altcoin/ICO hysteria. I had a lot of doubts about the sustained growth but greed got the better of me and I fell for the narrative that “a lot of people seem to know more about this stuff than I do and they are calling for multi-trillion $ mktcap, better just ride it out”. Going into the new year everyone is trying to make resolutions, this may work for some people but doesn’t really jive with how I operate so heres a few things I am trying to be better about with my crypto investing
- Trust my gut
- Take profits (repeat to yourself: “fiat isnt going anywhere anytime soon, dont be stupid”)
- less half-assing, more full-assing (less, but larger investments so I can follow them)
What I’m Buying
I am currently reading Antifragile part of Nassim Nicholas Talebs excellent Incerto collection. I would highly recommend the whole set to anyone. The group of books cover separate topics but are woven together with a common thread with the intention of helping you notice and understand assumed fallacies, asymmetries, and other components of modern life that we take for granted as being a certain way that aren’t. The core concept of Antifragile is to set yourself up in a way to benefit from volatility with the understanding that the likelihood of extreme events in life is chronically lowballed. If you can position yourself to benefit from these types of events you don’t necessarily need to be right about anything, you just need other people making bets to be wrong. The crux of it is optionality — the exposure to these events must have a limited downside with unlimited (or at least “much larger”) upside. the recommendation is to look for asymmetries in perceived probabilites and then set yourself up to benefit from the assymetry, not just in investing but in other aspects of your life as well. Do that with a small portion of your assets (money, time, etc.) and then use the rest to insure stability and peace of mind (stable assets, insurance policies, free time, etc.).
I am using this to illustrate/justify my general investing strategy for crypto.
- Dont short or use leverage (opens you up to getting stopped out)
- Accumulate BTC (or whichever crypto(s) you think have the best chance of “winning”)
- Put small amounts into super small caps (< $1mil mktcap) I want “10–100x and still not in the top 100 on CMC” potential
- TAKE PROFITS INTO FIAT(I admittedly suck at this)
If you try and play the mid caps for 20% gains you have to be right pretty consistently. Spray small amounts of assets (for much greater % of token supply) across some small tokens and you just need a couple to be successful (which basically comes down to can they last for another year or so in this market) and the returns should far outweigh the losses of the others that didnt make it. Two I have recently picked up.
Recommended Media
Read
Listen
From the Slack
A collection of content from The Bitcoin Podcast slack group the past week
Follow Me
twitter: https://twitter.com/Tompkins_Jon
linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathantompkins
steemit: https://steemit.com/@j-o-n-t
telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/FqrpRUo8CKHV8gGKRuNNNQ(we have a few people now, join in!)
