The 10 Counties Hit the Worst By COVID-19 (Part One)
As we wait for the official election results to be tabulated, I wanted to give an overview of where the United States stands in terms of the pandemic. As of November 3, the United States has accumulated 9.4 million total cases of COVID-19 and about 230,000 total deaths. Given that a key part of my election analysis will be determining the effects of the pandemic on the results, I thought it’d be useful to at least give a survey of where the country stood on this matter as of November 3, Election Day.
I originally planned to make this only one post, but after I started writing, I realized how much I wanted to say on this topic. So because of this, I decided to break this overview up into several parts. This first part will run down the ten counites in the United States with the highest incidence rate of COVID-19, which is the total number of cases divided by the total population.
This analysis will not include the spike in cases that we’ve seen in the weeks following Election Day. For the purposes of this article and for all the articles in my post-election series, I will be using the data collected by John Hopkins University for daily numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths. As for the economic effects of the pandemic (such as unemployment), I will be using data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For most other demographic and economic data on these counties, I will be using the most recent estimates by the United States Census Bureau. One additional source I used was the 2010 US Religion Census conducted by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies, which has county-level data on religious affiliation. While it is a bit outdated, this is the most reliable source available for this variable.
So as mentioned above, this list will look at the ten counties with the highest incidence of COVID-19 relative to their population. While major cities tend to get the headlines for their outbreaks and large numbers of cases, these numbers comprise a relatively modest percentage of their large populations. For example, New York County (consisting of Manhattan) had 36,980 cases as of Election Day, which is an eyepopping number, except it only translates to 2.3 percent of its population, slightly below the national average of 2.8 percent. Los Angeles County had 311,745 cases, another shocking number, except that only accounts for 3.1 percent of its population. And Suffolk County, Massachusetts (home to Boston) had 29,269 cases, which only made up 3.6 percent of the population.
None of this should trivialize the gravity of these numbers or the challenges that major cities face when handling of the pandemic. At the end of the day, we are talking about human beings and every COVID-19 case and death has a real person and life behind it. But in terms of infection, there are other counties out there where the pandemic’s reach has been more encompassing, where you’ll know more people in your community that have tested positive and had their lives altered by the virus. To that end, while the raw number of cases may be lower in these counties, the pandemic’s mark on these places runs deeper than anywhere else in the United States.
With that said, let’s get on with the top ten.
10) Lee County, Arkansas
Sitting on the banks of the Mississippi River with Mississippi directly to the east, this small count had 1,115 total cases on Election Day, accounting for 12.6 percent of the population (over four times the national average). On the other hand, there were only 18 deaths, making the 1.6 percent fatality rate below the national average. While the virus didn’t initially hit this county very much, most of these cases occurred during the summer months from June through August, consistent with its surrounding area.
Demographically, this county is majority black, although whites still account for 43 percent of the population. About 46 percent of the population is over the age of 45 and 20 percent is over the age of 65. About 24 percent of the population have a disability, including 46.5 percent of people over the age of 65 (both these figures are above the national average). Regarding religion, about 35.7 percent adhere to at least one congregation, almost all of which identify as Protestant and two thirds identify as evangelical. And as for education, Only 8.9 percent of the population have a college degree (less than a third of the national average) and 27 percent do not have a high school diploma (over double the national average). Indeed, this population appears particularly vulnerable to both the virus and the pandemic’s economic effects.
Socioeconomically, this county has many challenges. Its median household income ($28,080) is about 40 percent below the Arkansas average, which already ranks among one of the lowest in the country. About 43 percent of the population live below the poverty line. Its unemployment situation is more complicated. In August 2019, its unemployment was slightly above the national average (at 4.3 percent), but not too unreasonable. But it started increasing around November 2019, reaching 7.6 percent by March. While this placed it well above the national average, it only ended up increasing by 2.3 percent once the pandemic hit (below the 10-point hit seen nationwide). And unlike the rest of the nation, it has stayed in the 9 percent range since the pandemic started, not seeing a significant decrease seen across the rest of the country.
And politically, this is actually one of only two counties on this list that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (where she got 57.3 percent of the vote). In fact, Lee County is a Democratic stronghold; since 1896, it has gone blue in all but two elections (1948 and 1972). Currently, unofficial results for 2020 have Biden ahead with about 50 percent of the vote (although only 74 percent has reported as of writing).
9) Dakota County, Nebraska
Considered a part of the metropolitan area for Sioux City in neighboring Iowa, this is actually the largest county on this list, although it’s still fairly small with only 20,000 residents. As of Election Day, about 13.1 percent of the population had tested positive for the virus (with 2,628 cases). Most of these cases accumulated during the early months of the pandemic. And while the spread was slower during the summer, there has been more of an uptick since September. Luckily (for lack of a better word), the county only had 18 deaths, placing its fatality rate below the national average.
Demographically, about 82.3 percent of the population is white, similar to the rest of Nebraska. Of the remaining population, 6.7 percent is black, 4.1 percent is Native American, and 3.8 percent is Asian. And ethnically, 39.3 percent of the population is Hispanic, making Dakota the most heavily Hispanic county on the list. About 10.3 percent have a disability, including one in three seniors. With 49 percent of the population identifying as a religious adherent, this county is slightly more religiously observant than the rest of the country. While Protestants and Catholics are more evenly represented than in Lee County, Protestants hold the slight edge. Evangelicals also account for about 21.3 percent of the population. And regarding educational attainment, this county is limited. 25.4 percent of the population does not have a high school diploma, double the national average. On the other hand, only 12.5 percent of the population have a four-year college degree; many residents either only have a high school diploma or are classified as “some college”.
Socioeconomically, this county performs alright. Its median household income ($55,552) is slightly below the Nebraska average, which in turn is only slightly below the national average. Only 12.4 percent of the population live in poverty, the lowest of any county on this list. Regarding unemployment, Dakota County only had a 3 percent unemployment rate in August 2019; however, it started ticking up in the months leading up to the pandemic. By March, the unemployment rate stood at 5.6 percent. The following month, after the pandemic has taken hold, it had ticked up by 2.2 points to 7.8 percent. Luckily, in recent months, it has decreased dramatically. By September, it had gone back down to 3.4 percent, below what it was in March.
And politically, Dakota has leaned Republican; the last time it supported a Democrat was Bill Clinton in 1996. Donald Trump marked a notable improvement over Mitt Romney, winning 57.6 percent of the vote in 2016. And with about 95 percent reporting, unofficial results for 2020 have Trump carrying this county with 57.8 percent.
8) Buffalo County, South Dakota
Having just covered the largest county on the list, it’s only fitting to go to the smallest county. Buffalo County only has 1,962 residents, about 80 percent of which are Native American. This makes sense, given that most of the county sits on the Crow Creek Indian Reservation. Despite its small size (or maybe because of it), about 14.1 percent of the population have tested positive for the virus; however, there have only been 4 deaths. While the early months of the pandemic were fairly mild, there has been a surge here during the summer and early fall months.
As mentioned above, 80.6 percent of this county’s population is Native American; only 15.6 percent is white and 5.4 percent is Hispanic. Aside from race and ethnicity, veterans account for 10.6 percent of the population (above the national average). 13.7 percent of the population has a disability, including 35.3 percent of seniors. This county is also very religious, where almost 59 percent of the population adheres to a congregation. Catholicism is the predominant religion, accounting for 41.2 percent of the population, although Protestants and Mormons are visible minorities here. And regarding educational attainment, this county also skews below the national average. Only 9.4 percent of the population hold a four-year college degree and 20.4 percent do not hold a high school diploma.
Similar to many Native American reservations across the country, Buffalo County is challenged economically. At only $25,973, it has one of the lowest median household incomes in the country, let alone one of the lowest in its state. Not to mention that 45.7 percent of its population live in poverty, also making it one of the highest in the nation. And even before the pandemic, unemployment was a problem in this county. In August 2019, its unemployment rate (7.7 percent) was over double both the national average and the South Dakota average. It did go down in the months leading up to the pandemic; however it was still fairly high in March at around 5 percent. Then, in the first month after the pandemic started, it shot up to 14.6 percent (just a tad under the national average). Luckily, in the months since, that spike has mostly been neutralized, allowing the unemployment rate to sit at 5.6 percent in September.
And politically, Buffalo is heavily Democratic, having supported every Democratic presidential nominee since 1988. This is consistent with national trends, where Native Americans lean Democratic in their voting behavior. In 2016, however, Clinton underperformed here, only getting 60.4 percent of the vote (down from 73.6 percent for President Obama in 2012). With 100 percent reporting, it appears that Biden made up some ground here in 2020, although he still only got 64.1 percent.
7) Lake County, Tennessee
About a two and a half hour drive north of Lee County, Lake County also sits on the Mississippi River in the northwest corner of Tennessee, bordering Kentucky to the north and Missouri to the west. As of Election Day, 1,003 people had tested positive for COVID-19, or 14.3 percent of the county’s population. The pandemic had a strong and persistent presence from March through August, but has slowed down since September. Luckily, the death toll was only 4, a fatality rate of only 0.4 percent. This county was hit hard both in the early months and during the summer.
Demographically, this county is 69.3 percent white and about 28 percent black. Other racial and ethnic groups are few and far between in Lake County, with Hispanics only making up 2.6 percent of the population. Veterans account for 14.8 percent of the population. 20.9 percent have a disability, including almost half of the seniors. About half of the population adheres to a major religion, almost all of whom identify as Protestant and most of which identify as evangelical. And regarding educational attainment, only 10.4 percent of the population holds a four-year college degree and about 26.5 percent do not hold a high school diploma (over double the national average).
Socioeconomically, this county is pretty poor. With a median household income of $33,709, this county is 35.6 percent below the Tennessee average (with Tennessee ranking in the bottom ten in the country). About 36.5 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Regarding its unemployment rate, Lake County follows a similar trajectory to the rest of the nation. In August 2019, its unemployment rate was above the national average at 4.9 percent. And while it did increase a little during the pre-pandemic months, it stayed relatively low in March at 5.5 percent. Then once the pandemic hit, the rate spiked by 7.8 points, reaching a high of 13.4 percent in April. Luckily, it has gone down by 6.4 percent in recent months, going down to 7 percent in September.
Politically, this county used to be a Democratic stronghold. During the 20th century, it has regularly supported Democratic candidates with over 60 percent of the vote. While it flipped to support third-party candidate George Wallace in 1968 and President Richard Nixon in 1972, Jimmy Carter flipped it back in 1976, where it went on to go blue in the next eight presidential elections. But after John Kerry won it in 2004 with 55.6 percent of the vote, it swung hard to John McCain four years later. And since 2008, it has become a Republican stronghold, ultimately going to Donald Trump in 2016 with 69 percent of the vote. And while only 84 percent has reported, unofficial results for 2020 has Trump improving upon that margin with 73.4 percent of the vote.
6) Norton County, Kansas
A small, rural county on the Nebraska border, Norton had 778 confirmed cases as of Election Day, accounting for 14.5 percent of the population. Largely protected during the harsh early and summer phases of the pandemic, almost all of these cases have cropped up since September 1, skyrocketing this county into the top ten. Despite this sudden spike in cases, there have only been 18 deaths, a fatality rate of 2.3 percent (close to the national average).
Demographically, Norton County is over 93 percent white. Of the remaining population, 3.6 percent is black and 5.5 percent is Hispanic. This county is slightly older than the rest of country, where 48 percent of the population is over the age of 45 (and 21.3 percent is over 65). Veterans account for 9.8 percent of the population. 12 percent of the population has a disability, including 30.8 percent of its seniors. With 57.8 percent of its population adhering to at least one congregation, Norton is highly religious. Protestants make up four-fifths of this subsection, although Catholics constitute about 11 percent of the total population. Additionally, about 32.7 percent of the population identify as evangelical. And regarding educational attainment, this county performs better than others on the list. Only 10.6 percent of the population does not have a high school diploma (below the national average), while 15.9 percent has at least a bachelor’s degree. Still, that leaves over three quarters of the population either having just a high school diploma or “some college” without a degree.
Socioeconomically, this county doesn’t perform well, but it’s not near the bottom either. Its median household income, $47,252, is 18.7 percent below the Kansas average (which ranks 30th in the country). 14.6 percent of the population lives in poverty. In August 2019, the unemployment rate here was only 1.8 percent (half the national average). In the months following that, this figure has held steady, remaining at 1.9 percent in March. The following month, it only shot up to 3.3 percent (impressively low for the pandemic). As of September, the rate stands at 3 percent, barely a decrease but still very low.
Politically, this county is very conservative; it has backed every Republican candidate since Alf Landon in 1936. Since 2008, however, it has become even more solidly Republican, where both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump carried this county with over 80 percent of the vote. And with 99 percent reporting, unofficial results have Trump retaining that margin with 82.7 percent.
5) Lafayette County, Florida
Located on the Panhandle, Lafayette is the second smallest county in one of nation’s largest states, with a population of only 8,422. Despite being relatively rural, 15.2 percent of the population has tested positive as of Election Day, with 1,283 cases. While Lafayette fared alright during the early months, it was hit hard during the summer months, where almost all of the cases to date accumulated. On the other hand, with 16 deaths, the fatality rate is only half the national average.
Demographically, 84.5 percent of this county is white. Of the remaining population, 12.7 percent is black and 13.9 percent is Hispanic. Veterans account for 7.4 percent of the population. About 17.2 percent has a disability, including 62.7 percent of senior citizens. As for religion, 42.3 percent of the population adheres to a congregation. most of them identify as Protestant; however, 5.2 percent identify as Catholic and 33.3 percent identify as evangelical. Regarding educational attainment, 15.8 percent of the population have a four-year college degree while 23.9 percent do not have a high school diploma.
Socioeconomically, this county doesn’t perform well. Its median household income ($42,689) is 23 percent below the Florida average (which is surprisingly, or maybe unsurprisingly, in the bottom third of the country). About 21 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. In August 2019, the unemployment rate was 2.9 percent (below the national average). While it stayed low in subsequent months, it started increasing in March, reaching 4.2 percent. A month later, it only went up by 0.5 percent. In fact, this county didn’t hit its unemployment peak until July, when it reached 6.3 percent (still well blow the highest point on the national average). As of September, it stands at 3.4 percent.
Politically, this county has gone Republican in the last nine presidential elections, going back to 1984. In 2016, Donald Trump won 82.4 percent of the vote. And with 100 percent reporting, Trump is expected to slightly improve upon that margin with 85.5 percent.
4) Bon Homme County, South Dakota
Sitting on the banks of the Missouri River and the Lewis and Clark Lake across from the Nebraska border, this small county has accumulated 1,086 cases as of Election Day, about 15.7 percent of the population. Almost all of these cases have sprung up since September 1, reflecting a late surge in the lead up to the election. Luckily, only one person has died from the virus.
Demographically, 88.6 percent of the population is white. As for the rest of the population, 8.3 percent is Native American, 1.4 percent is black, and 3.1 percent is Hispanic. Veterans account for 6.2 percent of the population. About 15.7 percent of the population has a disability, including 31.5 percent of senior citizens. Of the counties on this list, Bon Homme is the most religious. 74.3 percent of the population adheres to a congregation, with 40.7 percent identifying as Protestant, 33.6 percent as Catholic, and 19.4 percent as evangelical. Regarding educational attainment, 18.4 percent of the population have a four-year college degree while 12.3 percent do not have a high school diploma.
Socioeconomically, this county doesn’t perform greatly, but it does well compared to the other counties on this list. Its median household income ($50,278) is only 12 percent below the South Dakota average (although that does rank 32nd in the country). 15.7 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Regarding unemployment, this county holds up alright. In August 2019, its unemployment rate was only 3 percent (slightly below the South Dakota average). And in the months leading up to the pandemic, it remains mostly unchanged, staying at 3 percent in March. In the first month after the pandemic, the rate shot up to 8.7 percent, a 5.7-point increase. Luckily, almost all of that increase has been neutralized in the months since the pandemic, returning to 3.7 percent in September.
Politically, this county has become reliably Republican in recent years. Aside from some success from Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Republicans have consistently won this Bon Homme since 1980. In 2016, Donald Trump won with 70.8 percent of the vote. And with 100 percent reporting, Trump is expected to build upon that margin, getting 74.5 percent.
3) Trousdale County, Tennessee
This county falls within the Nashville metropolitan area and includes the suburb of Hartsville. It’s also home to the Trousdale Turner Correctional Center, a private prison that saw over a thousand inmates get infected back in May. This spike contributed to the incidence rate equaling 16 percent of the county’s population. Most of the cases cropped up in May, but the summer and early fall have been more modest. On the other hand, there have only been 10 deaths as of Election Day, a fatality rate of 0.6 percent.
Demographically, this county is 85.6 percent white. As for the rest of the population, 11.4 percent is black and 2.5 percent is Hispanic. About 13.2 percent of the population has a disability and veterans account for 5.1 percent of the population. Only 33.8 percent of the population adheres to a religious congregation, almost all of which identify as Protestant and two-thirds of which identify as evangelical. Regarding educational attainment, only 16.8 percent of the adult population have a four-year college degree while 19.8 percent does not have a high school diploma.
Socioeconomically. Its median household income ($49,280) is only 6 percent below the Tennessee average, which is higher than Lake County (but it’s still relative to the Tennessee average, one of the lowest in the country). About 18.6 percent of the population lives in poverty. Regarding unemployment, Trousdale actually had a lower rate than the Tennessee average in August 2019 (at only 2.8 percent). And as of March, it had barely budged. Similar to the rest of the nation, it had a 9.2-point hit in the first month after the pandemic started, reaching 12.1 percent in April (although it was still below the Tennessee average). Luckily, it has gone down by about 7 percent in the months since then, reaching 5.2 percent as of September.
Politically, this county used to be a Democratic stronghold. Between 1912 and 2004, Trousdale went blue in all but one presidential election (1972). But after going for John Kerry with 58 percent of the vote in 2004, it flipped to John McCain in 2008 with an 11-point swing. Four years ago, Donald Trump won this county with 66.6 percent of the vote. And with 95 percent reporting, Trump is expected to out perform his 2016 vote share by getting 73.4 percent of the vote.
2) Chattahoochee County, Georgia
This suburban county sits in the Columbus metropolitan area near the Alabama border. Chattahoochee is also home to Fort Benning, one of the largest military bases in the country; however, given the heightened risk military bases face with infection, it isn’t surprising that this county made the list. As of Election Day, this county has seen 1,813 cases, accounting for 16.6 percent of the population. While it staved off the initial wave of the virus, cases spiked up during the summer months and the leadup to the election. On the other hand, there has only been one death.
Chattahoochee is about 70 percent white, 19 percent black, 3 percent Asian, and 17 percent Hispanic; however, its proximity to a large military installation gives this county some unusual demographics. For example, 64 percent of the population is male, a gender imbalance larger than most other counties. Also, 37 percent of the population is in the 20–29 age bracket (76 percent of which are male), which is nearly triple the national average. Conversely, only 14 percent of the population is over the age of 45 (a third of the national average) and only 5 percent is over 65 (a fourth of the national average). Also consistent with its location, veterans account for 22 percent of the population (one of the highest concentrations in the country). Although only 11 percent of the population has a disability, this figure includes 62 percent of its senior citizens. This is also the least religious county on the list, where only 9 percent of the population adheres to a congregation (and almost all of them identify as Protestant). And out of the ten counties on this list, Chattahoochee is by far the most well educated. 93 percent of the population has at least a high school diploma and 33 percent has at least a bachelor’s degree (slightly above the national average).
Socioeconomically. Its median household income ($46,869) is about 20 percent below the Georgia average (which is slightly below the national average). About 17.3 percent of the population lives in poverty. In August 2019, its unemployment rate was about the national average at 3.7 percent. While it stayed fairly steady in the months leading up to the pandemic, it was starting to increase in March (where it was 5.9 percent). The following month in April, it increased by 4.6 points to 10.5 percent. Luckily by September, it was back down to 5.9 percent.
Politically, this county has gone back and forth in recent decades; no party has won more than three consecutive elections in Chattahoochee since 1948. After Obama won this county in 2008 by only 19 votes, Romney turned around and flipped it with a 6 vote margin. Four years ago, Trump won this county with 54 percent of the vote and Clinton only got 42.7 percent (which explains why this county wasn’t classified as “swing” in my pre-election swing state series). And with 100 percent reporting, Trump is expected to do slightly better here in 2020, receiving 55.3 percent of the vote.
1)Lincoln County, Arkansas
A two-hour drive southwest of Lee County, Lincoln is situated in the southern part of Arkansas. As of Election Day, 18 percent of the population has tested positive for COVID-19, with 2,339 cases. These upticks have been consistent since the beginning of the pandemic, with fairly equal numbers in the three periods discussed. On the other hand, there have only been 18 deaths, a fatality rate of 0.8 percent.
Demographically, this county is 67.6 percent white. Of the remaining population, 30 percent is black and only 4.2 percent is Hispanic. About 23.5 percent of the population has a disability, including 53.5 percent of those over 65. Only 36.4 percent of the population adheres to a religious congregation, below the national average. Within that group, almost all of them identify as Protestant and about two thirds identify as evangelical. And regarding educational attainment, Lincoln County is below average. Only 8.9 percent of the population has a four-year college degree while 18.7 percent do not have a high school diploma, both of these figures are below/above the national average.
Socioeconomically, its median household income ($44,951) is only 4.6 percent below the Arkansas average; however, as mentioned earlier, is still one of the lowest averages in the country. 27.5 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Regarding unemployment, it experienced a somewhat similar trajectory to Lee County. In August 2019, its unemployment rate closely mirrored the national average at about 4 percent; however, it started ticking up around November. At the start of the pandemic, it had already gone up to 6.3 percent. As a result, it only took a 2.8-point hit in the month after the pandemic started. But unlike Lee County, Lincoln County actually had a modest recovery in the months since April; by September, it was back down to 6.6 percent, close to its pre-pandemic level.
Politically, Lincoln County used to be a Democratic stronghold. Before 2008, the last time this county went for a Republican was in 1972 when it backed President Richard Nixon. But after John Kerry captured this county in 2004 with 52.3 percent of the vote, John McCain flipped it in 2008 with a 10-point swing. Since then, it has stayed in the Republican column. In 2016, Trump carried it 64.2 percent. And with 99 percent reporting, Trump is expected to perform better in Lincoln this year, receiving 70.4 percent of the vote.
Conclusion
So what can we say about these ten counties regarding the pandemic? As shown by the numbers, the pandemic had a deep-cutting effect in terms of infection, even if the raw number of cases was small. As a collective subsection, these counties had a total of 14,131 cases as of Election Day, accounting for 15.1 percent of their combined population (about 5.4 times the national average). Infections moved at different rates and different times across each of these counties, but collectively, the subsection saw a fairly even spread of infection across each of the three time periods measured (4,560 cases during the early months, 5,053 cases during the summer, and 4,518 cases during the early fall). But despite being overwhelmed in terms of cases, the fatality rate was surprisingly low. No county met or exceeded the national average of 2.5 percent. Collectively, there were only 139 deaths from COVID-19, setting the fatality rate at just under 1 percent. Most of these deaths occurred during the summer and early fall months, while the early months were a bit nicer. This suggests that while infection was widespread in these counties, most of the cases were either mild or involved low-risk demographic groups (such as younger, relatively healthier subjects).
Demographically, these counties have a pretty normal age distribution. 17.8 percent of the population is in the 20–29 age bracket, which is above the national average of 13.7 percent. This is somewhat inflated by Chattahoochee’s unusually large concentration of young people, but even if we exclude this county, this age bracket would still make up 15.2 percent. And while the share of residents over 45 is slightly below the national average, it’s not terribly off. This could be one reason why there aren’t as many deaths relative to the number of cases in these counties, as younger people are less likely to die from COVID-19 than older people.
Regarding race and ethnicity, this subsection is 74.5 percent white (slightly below the national average), 17.9 percent black (above the national average), 3.7 percent Native American (almost triple the national average), 1.4 percent Asian (significantly below the national average), and 13.6 percent Hispanic (below the national average). Some of these minorities are highly concentrated in certain counties, such as Native Americans in Buffalo and Bon Homme, while others are predominantly white or black. This certainly goes a long way in explaining why these counties have so many cases. According to the CDC, blacks have 2.6 times the risk of getting infected than non-Hispanic whites, while Native Americans and Hispanics have 2.8 times the risk.
Another observation is that most of these counties are below the national average for educational attainment and other socioeconomic factors, such as median household income. This is no accident as all of these counties are in states that are below the national average for median household income and most other economic indicators. It’s been noted that poorer areas of the country are particularly vulnerable to infection due to lower health outcomes, higher unemployment, and the fact that less educated workers are more likely to be employed in sectors that cannot be done remotely, such as the service industry. But what’s most interesting is that although the unemployment rate was about the same as the national average before the pandemic, this subsection only saw a 4-point spike between March and April, only reaching a high of 8.8 percent unemployment. And it still had a commensurate recovery in the months since then, where by September, the unemployment rate was already back to where it was in March. Granted, some counties had it rougher than others, but generally, speaking, the unemployment situation didn’t get anywhere near as bad as it did in the rest of the country.
And finally, it should be noted that most of these counties are in solidly Republican states, which is generally reflected in their voting behavior. Eight of these counties supported Donald Trump in 2016, as well as Republican presidential candidates before him. But what’s even more interesting is that based on the unofficial results available, it doesn’t seem that the high COVID-19 incidence has hurt Trump in 2020. In nine of these counties (with Buffalo as the one exception), Trump has retained or expanded upon his 2016 vote share in this election, showing an impressive ability to hold onto his base. A key reason why President Trump was competitive in 2020 was that he was able to frame the pandemic debate as an ultimatum between containing the virus and rebuilding the economy. According to the Trump campaign, it was more important to let businesses stay open and function than to risk letting shutdowns intended to stop the spread deepen the economic pain. As a result, President Trump won 83 percent of voters that cited the economy as the most important issue and 78 percent of those that see rebuilding the economy as more important than containing the virus. While the unemployment spike resulting from the pandemic wasn’t as sharp in these counties as other places, the fact that these counties were struggling even before the pandemic made these economic concerns more salient and the risk of “shutting down the economy” meant losing what little these people already had.
So that’s all I have for this first part. In the next part, we will be looking at the ten counties with the most COVID deaths relative to the number of cases. I assure you that those results may be more interesting than you think.
