Will Physical Books Make A Comeback?
Sales are on the decline, but there is hope for the future of books
The lineup formed at the entrance of the bookstore around 10 pm. By the time the doors opened the next morning, the line stretched around the block. The store was Trident Booksellers in Boston, and it was summer 2007. People around the world clamored for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows. It was part seven of the series and at 67 million copies sold, one of the top ten best selling books in history. Little did anybody know it at the time, but 2007 would be the high water mark of physical book sales. Never again would books be so popular. What happened? Will physical books make a comeback? Can they?
The Rise of Digital Books
I published my first-ever paid blog post in 2008, just as book sales began to decline. My client paid me $80 for just under 1000 words, and I was hooked. The internet was the key! Kindle had just launched, and ebook sales were on the rise. The techno-future looked bright for digital writers like me. At last, I could write a book and self-publish. No gatekeeping editors or snotty publishing houses required.
Kindles were cool. Smartphones appeared at the same time. We could carry entire libraries of books around in our pockets. This is the future, right?
With the explosion of digital reading came the feeling that maybe something was missing. It felt a little too commercial, and a little too vacuous. Gone was that crinkly feel of paper under your fingertips as you turn the page. The clean and crisp smell of paper books was missing. Worst of all, there was no longer a need to browse a bookstore. All of those exciting emotions that came with walking out of the store with a few new books in a bag were non-existent. Browsing a digital catalogue on Amazon and clicking “Read Now” wasn’t the same.
If you’re like me, you love physical books. But physical book sales have tumbled since 2007. Globally, the publishing industry made $17.7 billion from book sales that year. In 2019 they made $6 billion. More than 60% of those sales were from countries where access to digital readers and modern smartphones is harder to reach for many people. To compare, global ebook sales reached $17 billion in 2019. 77% of that came from US sales.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out where publishers will focus. Ebooks are much less expensive to create and distribute than hard copy books. Investors no doubt are paying attention.
The Silver Lining
All of this seemingly points to a dark day when I can no longer go into a book store and browse for my favorite paperbacks. I have to admit that even I began buying books online. I have devoured some great reads on Kindle, and I’ve filled up my Apple iBooks library with amazing titles. Only now, as lockdowns ease (at least in the rest of the world outside of my native Canada), can we as a society appreciate how much paper books mean to us. Small independent book stores have been ravaged. In the United States, one book store closed every week during 2020. The numbers are more grim in Europe, where 20% of book stores shuttered their doors for good.
But to focus on these numbers doesn’t tell the whole story. That’s because all early indications show a rise in physical book sales during the 2020 lockdowns. From the depressing lows of 2019, book sales actually increased to nearly $9 billion in 2020. Amazon deliveries played a big part of this, but many smaller book stores successfully implemented their own online ordering systems. The numbers show that as we were all locked up at home, we devoured physical books as fast as we could buy them. We didn’t need ebooks on our lunch breaks or our commute. Instead, we could kick back in the afternoon with a cool drink and a great paperback. Despite all the technology, 2020 showed that we still love the feel and smell of paper books.
Will Books Survive?
So are physical books going to make a comeback? It’s impossible to tell. 2019’s slump looked like hardcopy books were on their knees. Going forward, a lot of what happens to the publishing industry depends on what we, as a society, decide to prioritize. The pre-pandemic hustle and bustle of commercial life was dehumanizing and disastrous for the world. When we applied the brakes in 2020 we were able to get back in touch with what matters to us, and books were one of those things. Will we go back to the 2019 way of living? Or can we move forward with more time to ourselves? With just a little bit of individual relaxation each day, books can make a comeback.
Another silver lining for books is the fact that Millennials are voracious readers. In 2016, Millennials accounted for over 37% of global physical book sales, far outstripping all other generations. Studies in 2017 showed that 82% of the books purchased by Millennials were physical books. Millennials are poised to drive book sales post-pandemic. Most of them are in the workforce, starting families, and earning money. As this generation takes over, the future for book publishers, and book stores, looks bright.
What Can We Learn?
Harry Potter taught us the importance of accepting one’s true self. Harry was born a wizard, and he could never escape that fact. Likewise, we love paper books. No amount of technological wizardry will replace the feel, the smell, and the emotions of actual books. With the right focus on a societal level, books will be with us for a long time to come.
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