Just HODL it or … ?

By Nico Ignatieff on ALTCOIN MAGAZINE

Nico Ignatieff
The Capital Platform
5 min readJan 8, 2019

What happened to your $100 in 2018?

Most of us enjoy a good retrospective at this time of the year. So, here is one more. For us (a blockchain startup) 2018 was not such a bad year, it was a rather tough one. For developers, the market downturn was a welcomed relieve from hyperbolic insanity that took place at the end of 2017.

However, the carnage that followed in 2018 was hard to the point, that reading Twitter was like reading wartime news — so many dead, so many wounded, so many executed for treason, so many gone MIA. All in all, 264 cryptocurrencies didn’t make it to 2019, half of them were launched with the help of ICO. For a startup like ours, it felt like heading into a perfect storm.

Interestingly, despite all that devastation and suffering by crypto investment and development communities, one fact did stand out. October 30th, 2018, Coinbase announced a $300 million fundraising round that puts the company valuation at $8 billion and makes it one of the most highly valued in the United States. One might ask how is this possible, when Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have lost more than 65 percent of their value but Coinbase has gone from 1.6 billion as of August 2017 to 8 billion in just fourteen months (200% growth).

First, let’s see how you would have fared, if you were to HODL $100 from January 2018 — December 2018

Bitcoin $1000,007 BTC $27 (-73%)

XRP $10043,5 XRP $16 (-84%)

Ethereum $100— 0,13 ETH $17 (-83%)

Bitcoin Cash $100 — 0,039 BCH $6,9 (-93,1%)

EOS $100 — 11,4 EOS $29 (-71%)

ChainLink $100 — 213 LINK $62 (-38%)

Binance Coin $100 — 9 BNB $51 (-49%)

Genesis Vision $10010 GVT $49 (-51%)

Waves $100 — 8 WAVES $26 (-74%)

Dogecoin $100 — 1 111 DOGE $22 (-78%)

Revain $100 — 111 R $21 (-79%)

Bread $100 — 59 BRD $12 (-88%)

Waltochain $100 — 8,7 WTC $10 (-90%)

Electroneum $100 — 1 250 ETN $9 (-91%)

Kin $100 — 222 222 KIN $8 (-92%)

Status $100 — 416,7 SNT $7 (-93%)2018

OmiseGO $100 — 5,1 OMG $7 (-93%)

FunFair $100 — 1 176 FUN $5 (-95%)

Time New Bank $100 — 1 111 TNB $3 (-97%)

Ripio Credit Network $100 — 263,9 RCN $3 (-97%)

A total reversal of 2017.

So, this is something to ponder as we look at the paradox which had occurred in 2018.

Day-trading is a complex type of commodities trading, associated with strong emotional strain and requiring quick decision-making process, strict risk management and a clear understanding of the market context. It a very risky trading method, and regulations require brokerage firms to ask whether their clients understand the risks of day trading and whether they have prior trading experience before entering the market.

An astonishing 92 percent of day traders — lose money. Only 8 percent are successful. Out of that 8 percent, only 2 percent of the day trading public make money on a consistent basis. Why do 92 percent of day traders fail and what makes the 8 percent successful? Well, that is the subject for our project, but in any case, it should act as a warning.

image source Getty Images

Some have already realized that technical analysis used to predict commodity price movements is even less applicable to crypto (My personal opinion that it doesn’t apply at all). This conclusion could explain why the percentage of consistent “in the money” crypto traders is even less viable than in fiat. So why does Coinbase and other crypto exchanges make this type of dangerous investment available to public en masse. I guess this is how you go from 1.6 to 8 billion in just over one year while the market is down 65% All you need is an army of self-proclaimed “Crypto Oracles” then fuse it with FOMO and facilitate easy access to the trading for common folks to become “cannon fodder” for exchanges. It makes perfect “sense” when;

Coinbase President and Chief Operating Officer Asiff Hirji said in a statement. Coinbase plans to use the funds (300 Million) to “accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies and digital assets.”

My question is — adoption for what exactly? Sheep to the slaughter? Yeah, let’s optimize this process to perfection.

One can only hope that understanding and accepting the fact that trading platforms for the crypto have not been developed yet (working on it) will come sooner rather than later.

Born to disrupt and eliminate fiat, crypto has nothing to do with speculative markets and their technical analysis. Crypto is a precise, sharp instrument with sole purpose to facilitate mandated by smart contracts obligations. The only speculative part in this equation should be our consent of how useful crypto has become in facilitating fulfillment of smart contracts as it continues to mature and becomes dominant financial instrument.

If we had enough brains to invent cryptocurrency, should we not invent trading platforms for it as well, and make sure they are not based solely on the speculative mindset of fiat investment strategies. This trader ideology remains stubbornly at the heart of our short-term-obsessed finance capitalism, which, left unchecked, surely will lead us to economic, social, and ecological collapse.

As always, a short but important disclaimer: none of what I write here is to be construed as advice to buy or sell any kind of asset. It is merely my personal and not my professional opinion. Any asset can go to zero.

Writing when not building @ www.range.trade


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Nico Ignatieff
The Capital Platform

CEO, AZN Research. Creating an Alternative Blockchain powered investment platform. http://www.range.trade