Image for post
Image for post

Modeling Bitcoin Value: Three Methods

Price-Time, Price-Difficulty, Price-Stock2Flow

Stephen Perrenod
Dec 6, 2019 · 15 min read

Bitcoin’s Double Feedback Loop

Image for post
Image for post
Figure 1: Bitcoin’s Scarcity and Security drive its Value, in a double feedback loop

Basis: Block Time

Security via Difficulty

Image for post
Image for post
Image for post
Image for post
Image for post
Image for post

Regression and Co-integration

Scarcity via Stock-to-Flow (Plan B model)

Image for post
Image for post
Image for post
Image for post

Comparing Models

Image for post
Image for post
Image for post
Image for post
Figure 3: Price Forecast for Block time, Difficulty, and Stock-to-Flow out to Block Year 15 (March 2023). Next Halving occurs at Block Year 12 (May 2020).

Satoshi’s Monetary Genius

The Capital

A publishing platform for professionals now available on https://thecapital.io

Sign up for Try The Capital Platform at thecapital.io

By The Capital

Head over to https://thecapital.io, sign up and publish your first article today! Take a look.

By signing up, you will create a Medium account if you don’t already have one. Review our Privacy Policy for more information about our privacy practices.

Check your inbox
Medium sent you an email at to complete your subscription.

Stephen Perrenod

Written by

supercomputing expert, astrophysicist, cryptocurrency analyst, orionx.net, author of DarkMatter, DarkEnergy, DarkGravity

The Capital

A publishing platform for professionals in business, finance, and tech

Stephen Perrenod

Written by

supercomputing expert, astrophysicist, cryptocurrency analyst, orionx.net, author of DarkMatter, DarkEnergy, DarkGravity

The Capital

A publishing platform for professionals in business, finance, and tech

Medium is an open platform where 170 million readers come to find insightful and dynamic thinking. Here, expert and undiscovered voices alike dive into the heart of any topic and bring new ideas to the surface. Learn more

Follow the writers, publications, and topics that matter to you, and you’ll see them on your homepage and in your inbox. Explore

If you have a story to tell, knowledge to share, or a perspective to offer — welcome home. It’s easy and free to post your thinking on any topic. Write on Medium