The Future Supply Model, Era 4

Bitcoin is on a Block calendar

Witness at crums.io: 0515d51a66480ff94b4bb274e1214e5419c3181af7d970b39ee66f096b7022ce

“The portion of the integral calculus, which properly belongs to any portion of the differential calculus, increases its power a hundred-fold” — Augustus De Morgan

(This is not investment advice. Bitcoin is highly volatile, as demonstrated below.)

Abstract

In a previous article, I introduced the Future Supply model, using quarterly data (https://link.medium.com/bvWOCqrXr6 ) spanning nine and a half Block years of data on quarterly intervals. For this article I have refined the analysis by using a full ten Block years of data on Block monthly intervals (of 4375 blocks each). There are 121 price points in the series, that begins at the end of the first two Block years and runs through the end of Block year 12, coincident with the third Halving.

The Future Supply model (FSM) uses a measure of outstanding Bitcoin supply (future supply or reserves) rather than the annualized production used in the well-known Stock-to-Flow model. With FSM, the market cap asymptotes to a maximal value; log of market cap is modeled as a linear function of the fraction of all Bitcoin not yet mined.

We also evaluate both the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and a log Price vs. log Block time model against the same price and supply data. When expressed in Block year terms, S2F (annualized, forward-looking) is a monotonic formula, with discontinuities at each Halving.

The FSM is based on a continuous monotonically decreasing function, the remaining supply or its fractional value (either can be used as the basis variable). The model is mathematically convergent by design.

The statistical tests performed favor both the FSM and a log price vs. log Block time model over the S2F model somewhat, but that model also provides a good fit to the ten years’ worth of historical monthly data.

By the start of the next decade, the Future Supply Model predicts a Bitcoin fair value price of around $50,000 in constant 2020 dollars, whereas the S2F model forecast is over $8 million. While all three models examined in this article provide acceptable backward-looking fits, one should be able to distinguish which one is…