The Capital
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The Capital

Winter’s tale; crypto edition

Your mental health is very important, you might want to take a break from looking at those charts. This is not some Shakespearean tale, lol. If you ever thought crypto was an ‘easy’ get rich quick scheme, you should be re-arranging your words now. It’s amazing, but (winter) came so early…and unannounced. It might be safe to say that the days are dark and getting darker. Not to scare you, despite the deep red charts, it’s not a horror show… at least for now.

First time? Well, that should hurt a lot. Not many in that boat anyways, I mean, we’ve seen a few crashes since the rally from $10K. Oh, wait, ‘crypto king’ has got something to say.

My bad, that name is not deserved…man is just joking anyway. But let’s hope he gets that refund. I will need a refund too! Just a few dollars away from filling for being broke and an application at the McDonalds. My resume says ‘Fintech expert and writer’ anyways.

Knowing fully well that we’re mostly here for the technologie$$, there’s little or nothing to worry about; LFG! Probably to 25K and then…well, if it’s winter, then it will be hard to guess how low we can get. Technology will always be there, that’s why we are here.

Any attempt at explaining if this is actually good in the long term will only be a hopium, a Shakespearean super tale. Not necessary, especially when it has always been expected. That $100k dream gets gloomy again for yet another year, but this space is very unpredictable, right? Yes!

For the investor who bought at the top or somewhere close to that, the regret exists but could be different depending on the investor. For some, the regret is that they could have bought at a discount if they waited for a little longer. But if you believe in the project and hold off as long as required, then there is no ‘good’ time to buy. For other investors, buying was a mistake. Not sure if any advice should be given here.

Reactions to crashes like this differ. True believers would hold on to their bags and probably buy more as this discount price is an opportunity. Others get paranoid and sell off, taking profit or stopping the running loss. Unto the next one, a move which might see the loss continue or the recovery start.

Dips are always unpleasant, except if you’re waiting to buy at a discount. Frowning at nasty drops in prices is, in fact, normal and expected, but the charts cannot continue to stay green. Crashes like this are, in fact, important. That probably sounds harsh, but that’s what reality is. HODL and Buy the dip…with caution. Now that’s not financial advice!

Unlike the numerous TA specialists, I can’t offer a comfortable analysis of the state of things. But I’m stuck between calling this a dip, a subtle crash, or a slow crypto winter. The latter looks more likely. A straight drop from $69,000 to below $34,000 without any significant bounce isn’t a healthy move. The resistance around $40,000 looked like a healthy consolidation; well, that’s badly broken.

The greed index is at a level not seen in over a year now, the price is struggling to get back up. It still looks gloomy anyways. A move back up to $40k and above, as well as a move below $30k, is still in the card. Cryptocurrencies still look ‘oversold’, it won’t be a surprise if things get even worse; if that plays out…welcome to Winter!

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