2014 World Cup Best/Worst Case Scenarios

Expectations vary, from winning it all to just nabbing a point. What’s the range for each team in this Cup?


By Andy Glockner

Whether you’re a world power or just happy to be in the final field of 32, every team in the World Cup has some range of expectancy for these next several weeks. This could be the strongest field since it expanded to this size, so there are very few rank outsiders in the mix, which should make for an intriguing tournament and leave most teams with a legitimate chance of advancing to the knockout rounds. With humor, insight and just enough snark, here are the broadest possibilities for all eight groups:


Group A

Brazil

Best case: World domination. Seven straight multi-goal victories. Flair on top of flair. Smoking hot local women in bikini tops make up 70 percent of every crowd, bringing joy to cameramen and the 48+ percent of the Earth interested in said women. Argentina wins Group F to eventually set up a colossal final at the Maracanã, which Brazil wins 6-0. The players are doused in caipirinhas as they raise the Cup in front of their arch rivals.

Worst case: Nate Silver and other quant experts have Brazil at north of 99 percent to advance to the knockout round, so that’s their absolute floor. There, they run into Spain/Chile/Netherlands and are KO’d because the organizing committee ran behind schedule and failed to properly rig their own draw in December. Bikini-topped ladies boycott the rest of the event. We all sob. The players are doused with murky piranha water from the Amazon. Argentina wins the Cup at the Maracanã.

Cameroon

“My back, I think I pulled it, Jose.”

Best case: People quickly realize they underrated this African side that has a good amount of top-tier talent. Getting to Brazil late after a dispute over bonuses isn’t a concern. They dispatch Mexico in the Dysfunction Bowl and go from there. Brazil probably won’t be happy with a draw anywhere in this Cup, but Cameroon playing them when Brazil may already be on six points might help keep goal difference manageable. That could be the decider in terms of finishing ahead of Croatia and advancing, before losing to a Group B power. Samuel Eto’o plays up front like he’s younger than Jose Mourinho thinks and busts out multiple “Old Man Celebrations.” Charles Itandje plays like his Lens version from years ago, not what Liverpool fans remember him to be (on and off the pitch).

Worst case: Squabbles about pay (and conspiracies from Eto’o about being frozen out by teammates) are never positive indicators, and the discord undermines their campaign. They get caught unawares by Mexico in what becomes the first of three straight defeats. Eto’o plays like he’s 50 years old, not “32, maybe 35.” Itandje plays like he’s Liverpool’s fifth-choice keeper (which he was, toward the end of time there) and acts inappropriately at some memorial service between matches. The Federation renegs on their bonuses anyway.

Croatia

Best case: Pressure impacts the hosts in the opener, and despite missing star striker Mario Mandzukic for the match, Team Tablecloth scrapes a point. That sets the group up potentially to be decided potentially on goal difference, and Croatia’s schedule order (with Cameroon first) helps them win the group on seven points. Brazilian women adapt tablecloth-style bikini tops in their honor. We all cheer. Then the Croats surprise the second-place finisher from Group B (or somehow draw Australia) before bowing out in the quarterfinals.

Worst case: Brazil is ready from the jump and the campaign starts with a heavy defeat. Pressure to make up points and goal difference hinders Team Tablecloth and they can’t get the three points they need from Cameroon, the capper after a qualifying campaign dotted with struggles against lesser sides. They’re put out of the event by Mexico, which advances with Brazil. They go home with sunburn matching their checkered uniforms. Brazilian women ogle Rafa Marquez.

Mexico

Best case: The spirit of Saint Zusi propels them. Their 23rd manager (approximately) in the last 18 months has found the right formula of skill, spirit and ardido. Freed from facing imposing sides like Jamaica, Panama and Costa Rica, the Mexicans win over the Brazilian crowds with their unthreatening short-passing game. A (very) well-rested Chicharito pops up a few times to score, the decision to finally start their best goalkeeper pays off, and they move on with Brazil to the round of 16. Not intimidated by the prospect of a good stylistic matchup with Spain or Chile, they match their best-ever finish by making the quarterfinals. The U.S. loses all three matches without scoring. ¡Olé!

Worst case: Their 23rd manager in the last 18 months can’t get anything more out of a team that’s regularly disappointed since the Gold Cup triumph in 2011. They quickly realize they’re the worst side in the group after getting handled by Cameroon in the opener. The not-so-super-patient Mexican media stirs up some emotion, ardido rules the day, and Rafa Marquez is red-carded toward the end of a 3-0 loss to Brazil that eliminates them after two matches. The U.S. stunningly wins Group G, inherits Germany’s assumed path, and makes the semifinals. ¡No se puede!

Group Prediction: Brazil 1st, Croatia 2nd

Group B

Australia

Best case: They get to go home to Australia? There have been some solid Aussie sides, notably the group that should have advanced to the final eight in 2006 (and would have left us with a different champion after getting a deserved W over eventual Cup-winner Italy). This is not one of them. They lost 6-0 to both France and Brazil in friendlies before firing their former manager. They’re in transition and terribly inexperienced in the back. Maybe if Chilean-trained goalkeeper Mat Ryan stands on his head, Australia can nick a point in this group. It’s hard to see anything more than that, but hey, regional buddies New Zealand drew thrice in their group in 2010. Right? Right??! (Yeah, this could get ugly, but every day is beautiful in Australia. G’day!)

Worst case: They get slipped on the barbie thrice and exit the Cup with a double-digit negative goal differential as everyone else realizes pounding them may be key to advancement. The Australian Institute of Sport is directed to put all future funding into soccer, drying up the delightful pipeline of Aussie basketball talent that’s come Stateside. At halftime of their third match, we’re subjected to a “Worst Aussie Sports Moments” montage on ESPN and have to watch Greg Norman’s Masters collapse again. Hugh Greenwood and Anthony Drmic don’t recover from the trauma and have poor final seasons in the Mountain West. #hughmebaby #thedoctorisin

Chile

Best case: An opening 6-0 win over Australia puts a ton of pressure on Spain and the Netherlands, especially if one of them loses that head-to-head match on Friday. Arturo Vidal regains his health, the Chilean pressing attack is on full throttle, and maybe the most wildly entertaining team in the tournament wins this brutal group, avoids Brazil in the Round of 16 and makes it all the way to the semis. The media runs out of punny Chile headline jokes well before that. Along the way, we marvel at how the nation took 2,000 miles of coastline with only about 14 inches of associated inland problems.

Worst case: They’re not nearly the same without Vidal, who even if he is able to play, is nothing like his imperious Juventus form. They gag in their opener, drawing with the overmatched Aussies, and then get exposed in the back by the silky Spaniards and the lethal tri-tipped attack force of the Netherlands. They exit meekly on one point. The first line of Nobel Prize winner Gabriela Mistral’s Su Nombre Es Hoy — “We are guilty of many errors and many faults” — gets reappropriated for predictive value. Someone in the media runs a Chile con Carnage headline.

Netherlands

Best case: What’s perceived as an ultra-defensive 5-3-2 formation shows its tactical brilliance and becomes known worldwide as Subtotal Football. Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder unleash free-flowing hell on opposing defenses, the Dutch win the group and avoid Brazil. At that point, the sky(ish) is the limit, as long as their big three stay healthy. The side of the bracket for B1 is relatively benign. Make the semis, and who knows what could happen. Two more wins and Nigel de Jong celebrates a stunning championship by kung-fu kicking Sepp Blatter. Howard Webb only issues a yellow card.

Worst case: The Dutch make watching a Jose Mourinho side in a major match exciting. Their back seven can’t consistently connect with their front three, leaving them as a punchless side that won’t have much possession against the two other elite teams in the group. They end up getting ground down by Spain’s passing and Chile’s pressure, and mostly look like the below-par Dutch side some suspect they are. Much like 20 percent of their homeland, they end up below sea level and are knocked out after three matches. De Jong kung-fu kicks 11 of his teammates. Webb only issues a yellow card.

Spain

Best case: They win it all, capping one of the truly great runs in international soccer history. They would have won the last four major soccer titles (World Cups and European Championships) while feeding the vast majority of the talent for Barcelona’s and Real Madrid’s club runs. All the while, their ultra-possession passing style will be talked about by soccer historians in future decades, probably launching another tactics book from @jonawils. Other than that, nothing really at stake here. If they beat Brazil along the way to avenge last year’s Confed Cup final pounding, all the better.

Worst case: The age of the roster and the world’s understanding of how to defuse their style finally catches up with them, and the brutal group means they’re the odd team out. Their epic run ends with a whimper as they join the Aussies at the three-and-out party. It’s unthinkable, but it’s far from impossible. Meanwhile, Portugal and Ronaldo preen their way deep into the knockout rounds.

Group B Prediction: 1. Spain, 2. Chile

Group C

Colombia

Best case: Twenty years after its darkest soccer hour, this is a side generating a lot of dark horse love despite the injury absence of lethal hit man Falcao, and rightfully so. Colombia, which finished second in Brazil-less South American qualifying, is really talented, has a manageable group, and has “home continent” advantage, too. Striker Jackson Martinez steps into Falcao’s void and makes the global splash his considerable skill deserves, as does Monaco midfielder James Rodriguez. Winning the group and making it to the quarterfinals is a very real scenario. The barrier at that point could be host Brazil (or Spain, or Chile, or the Netherlands). If it’s not the Seleção, the round of eight isn’t necessarily the last stop. If it’s Spain, Shakira has a huge dilemma on her hands.

Worst case: Like Chile, this team is made to outscore you, not to win 1-0. Group foe Greece loves winning 1-0 almost as much as it enjoys drawing 0-0. The Ivory Coast still has individual talent that can hurt you. It’s not unthinkable that the Colombians could get pipped by both (probably not by Japan, which won’t handle the physicality of this group very well) and not make the knockout round. We miss out on hundreds of photo ops for Shakira and Sofia Vergara, and chances to talk about Carlos Valderrama and Adolfo “El Tren” Valencia — leaders of a team that won a qualifier 5-0 in Argentina, prompting a standing ovation from their crowd — outside of the framework of the Andres Escobar tragedy.

Greece

“Yes, it’s hard to keep my eyes open while we’re playing. Here, let me show you what I do.”

Best case: The Greeks impart their particular (and particularly effective) style of boreball (18,500,000 search results on Google!) on the group to great effect, prompting screams of “How can you play like this?!?” from opponents, fans and media alike. A side that won 1-0 in five of their 10 WCQs (plus a 0-0 and two 2-0s) edges a tight group while scoring just three total goals. They inherit Colombia’s winnable R16 matchup, getting to the quarters before getting stomped out by someone better than they are. No domestic banks go belly up during the tournament. Striker Kostas Mitroglou materializes in a big way and earns Fulham a $30 million transfer fee after approximating all of Keyser Soze’s invisibility and none of his danger for four months in London.

Worst case: Soccer watchers worldwide celebrate as the Greeks fall behind by insurmountable 1-0 margins in all three matches, don’t know what to do, and are quietly sent back home to feast on delicious olives, cheese and breads. (Side note: Greece-Japan may be the best food matchup in the whole group stage, although I’d take Brazil-Mexico.) Mitroglou doesn’t look any healthier or better than he did at Fulham, and ends up on loan at back-in-the-Prem Queens Park Rangers. He fires home 24 goals next season as they make Europe and I projectile vomit.

Ivory Coast

Best case: The Anglo world fully adopts their preferred nom de nation, Côte d’Ivoire, because everything sounds better in French. The Elephants finally live up to years of pedigree, in part because they finally didn’t get stuck in a Group of Death. Six of their 23 players have at least 80 caps, so there is a healthy mix of experience, youth and talent. Didier Drogba is still here, but world-class midfielder Yaya Toure (assuming he is healthy; hey, an injury issue in the World Cup. Quelle Surpise!) and Swansea striker Wilfried Bony likely will be leading men. Cocoa lovers rejoice as the world’s leading bean exporter marches into the Round of 16.

Worst case: It wasn’t the Groups of Death. This generation was just overrated. They get flummoxed by a weird group that includes Colombia’s attacking power, Japan’s precision and Greece’s defensive crapfest. Age and/or inexperience in the back four gets exploited at key moments, Toure is a shell of his typically rampant City form, and they crash out before the knockout round. A country (one of many in Africa) wracked by recent civil wars doesn’t get a sporting respite to help further the ongoing attempts to reunite and rebuild the country.

Japan

Best case: Probably the best team from the Asian confederation, they establish that sake > ouzo and scrape through to the final 16, meaning they get extended use of their Pokemon plane! Casual fans get a final positive World Cup look at legend Yasuhito Endo and get to know other talents like star Keisuke Honda and about-to-be-a-bigger-star Hiroshi Kiyotake. Manager Alberto Zaccheroni’s renewed faith in domestic striker Yoshito Okubo pays off as he carries his domestic goal scoring form with him in Brazil.

Pika! Pika!!!!! Pika!!

Worst case: The fears about the construct of this group as it relates to Japan’s strengths are founded and they find this a very rough go. Pikachu, the official mascot for the team’s Cup run, is the only one who builds up too much electricity, and he explodes like Japan’s hopes. This was not a good go-round for the AFC, so even their best team may be unable to navigate a tricky group. The best Japanese performer at the Cup turns out to be Yuichi Nishimura, who will ref the tournament opener, Brazil-Croatia.

Group C prediction: 1. Colombia, 2. Greece

Group D

Costa Rica

Best case: Despite it being Brazilian winter, there’s no Denver-style snowstorm to shortcircuit the Ticos. Despite the injury absence of Alvaro Saborio, the champions of social justice flash enough other attacking options and defensive cohesiveness to somehow scrape through to the Round of 16. In goal, Keylor Navas shows why he’s become a mainstay in La Liga. On the field, Joel Campbell has his breakout international event while Bryan Ruiz curls one past Joe Hart and then thrives in the time afforded by Italy to earn Fulham a lucrative transfer offer from a major Serie A club.

“Blame Mexico. We had to play here to prep for their high-altitude hellhole.”

Worst case: Despite Brazilian winters having temperatures proxying Denver summers, there’s a snowstorm and Costa Rica grumbles its way through a loss in its opener. Placed in a killer group, the Ticos are game but ultimately are worn down by the class and relative health of their group foes, and exit with 0 or 1 point(s). The “95% of the time for Fulham” version of Ruiz plays a leading role in the tepid effort, earning Fulham a small transfer offer from a lower-table Eredivisie side. Campbell takes a disgraceful flop and draws a second yellow in match two, ending his World Cup after just 150 minutes. Costa Ricans react by grossly increasing carbon emissions in the country.

England

This isn’t a goal, according to 2010.

Best case: England thinks the rain and subpar pitch in Manaus is like playing at Wembley. They beat Italy and go on to manage what they couldn’t in 2010 with a much easier group: win it. That should afford them a much simpler R16 matchup, and assuming they don’t get rooked out of a clear goal, the final eight looks reasonable. Then they’ll battle someone into a shootout and blow it, like normal. Wayne Rooney is played out of position but is refreshed by playing with actually good players. Joe Hart stops every shot that’s hit right at him, and a few that aren’t. Steven Gerrard isn’t exposed for age and pace in the center of the park. Roy Hodgson’s stodgy tactics are validated once again, although nothing short of winning the whole thing here will trump his Europa Cup miracle with Fulham in 2010.

Worst case: Hodgson’s square peg/round hole lineup approach leaves Rooney responsible for dropping back and tracking Andrea Pirlo. That ends terribly, Italy beats them in the opener, and panic/discord sets in. Luis Suarez is ready, willing and very able to take a bite out of them later in the group stage. Throw in one Robert Green moment from Hart, and the campaign ends in typical English misery. Everyone wonders why they didn’t use more of an ambitious diamond formation in the midfield, even though Hodgson never met two banks of four he didn’t like.

Italy

Best case: On the 10-year anniversary of the epic media troll video shown below, an Italian dives over a dead patch in the Manaus field to draw a decisive penalty and beats England in the opener. A typical Italian tournament run follows, where everyone wonders how they made it to the final, and then everyone wonders how they won the final. One final tour de force month from legendary keeper Gianluigi Buffon backstops a stingy Azzurri effort needed to navigate the group, and then all bets are off because Italy has strange, mystical powers in knockout rounds. And wonderful food. Don’t forget this. It’s more important than soccer.

Worst case: The domestic players on the roster aren’t used to actually playing in front of crowds, and react badly. England, Uruguay and Costa Rica all have pace, which is also something the Italians in Serie A don’t see. Buffon, approaching 150 caps, shows his advancing age and is leakier than expected. The horrible field in Manaus and the humidity impact them both against the English (who beat them) and going forward, as a drained Azzurri end up eliminated in the group stage.

Uruguay

Best case: It’s hard to be a dark horse when you made the semifinals four years ago and have the talent this team does, but they somehow needed the intercontinental playoff to lock up their World Cup spot after finishing fifth in Brazil-less CONMEBOL qualifying. Unlike anyone in the NBA in the 1990s, they easily beat Jordan. Their projection this time around is complicated by a difficult group and an unfriendly knockout round path. That said, they will be very dangerous, especially if Luis Suarez heals in time to destroy England as payback for his perceived treatment in club soccer. Manager Oscar Tabarez, eight years into second run with the national side after getting them to the knockout rounds in Italy 1990 and South Africa 2010, wins more “1-0 blowouts” and makes another deep run.

Worst case: Suarez is ailing and ineffective. Uruguay isn’t as sturdy defensively as its usual rep (25 goals conceded in qualifying) and struggles to impose its will on the rest of this dynamic group. They eventually get out-dove by Italy in a pivotal group match, seeing England and the Azurri advance at the expense of the Biancoceleste. Late in the match against the Italians, Suarez reverts to former bad behavior and bites himself, contracting rabies in the process.

Group D prediction: 1. Uruguay, 2. Italy

Group E

Ecuador

Best case: They outscore teams and honor the memory of striker Christian Benitez, who died in the middle during the qualifying campaign after collapsing following a match for his club team. They still have some potent attacking talent with Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia, former Manchester City striker Felipe Caicedo and Jefferson Montero. Their relative defensive frailties don’t undermine them until the knockout round, where they fall to one of the two good Group F teams.

Worst case: France has more talent and Switzerland has superior organization, and one of the South American sides is bounced before the knockout round. ¡Qué lástima!

France

Best case: In qualifying, they only proved they’re not as good as Spain. One of the flakier international sides around will also be without Franck Ribery, another injury victim who couldn’t recover in time for the tournament. But, hey, Paul Pogba! Somehow, they have played Switzerland 36 previous times, according to Wikipedia. Who knew? They’re going to have to make sure they don’t botch the 37th meeting if they want to be assured of a place in the knockout rounds. Can’t see them going much beyond that.

Worst case: Switzerland is the exact opposite of the French. Not sexy, but better than you think. It’s not at all inconceivable that France is the odd team out in this group with Switzerland and Ecuador advancing. In fact, that’s how I see it unfolding.

Honduras

Best case: Hmmm. Qualification for the knockout stage looks extremely unlikely, so how about claiming one semi-famous World Cup win? There’s really not all that much interesting about the Hondurans. They’re OK. They’re probably the worst team in this group. U.S. fans will be interested in how former D.C. United (and former dream USMNT target) Andy Najar performs after solid work at Anderlecht in Belgium.

Worst case: In CONCACAF, the Catrachos are like the proverbial fine wine: good at home, but they don’t travel well. Now they’re in a group with teams that are more talented and/or more disciplined than they are. More “stupid and horrific tackling” like they displayed in the friendly against England leaves them down a man in multiple matches and in even worse shape. Three-and-out, with maybe a point to their name, and a quiet departure.

Switzerland

h/t laughingsquid.com

Best case: Somehow, by working their way through a highly pedestrian UEFA qualifying group (seriously, try to guess who the seeded team was; Iceland was from Pot 6 and finished second), the Swiss became one of the eight seeded teams for the World Cup (ahead of Italy, the Netherlands and others). As such, they head up the tournament’s Group of Meh, the most likely group to find people saying “You know what? I think I can skip this match” during the soccer deluge over the next few weeks. The Swiss love the lack of buzz, and capitalize by riding their efficient, low-drama style to top the group. Maybe they nick a knockout round win before the opposition stiffens to an unmanageable point.

Worst case: Knowing the Swiss being seeded was ridiculous, the sports Gods refuse to tolerate a team this generic in a World Cup in flair-filled Brazil and send them politely packing after three matches. The world comes to realize that Belgian chocolate is vastly superior to theirs.

Group E prediction: 1. Switzerland, 2. Ecuador

Group F

Argentina

Best case: Winning it all in arch rival Brazil would provide eternal bragging rights, and it’s in play. Winning it all in Brazil over Brazil would be like 1,000 of the U.S.’s 2002 Dos a Cero over Mexico in South Korea. 2010 World Cup USMNTer @HerculezG put it pretty well:

It could happen if Lionel Messi spends a month for Argentina showing his Barcelona form, everything else falls into place behind him and … sweet, sweet glory. This is maybe one of the most interesting teams in the event for both team and individual reasons. They have stuff to prove here.

Worst case: Getting out of the group is the barest of minimums, and should they win the group, they really should be able to handle the second-place finisher in the Group of Meh. So call it round of eight or bust. If they don’t win the group, they could draw Brazil in the semis (assuming the hosts walk their group). Losing there, and an earlier exit probably would be preferred by many Argentinians.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Best case: Clearly the second-best (at minimum) side in the group, they do one better and pip Argentina for the top spot. That opens up a better path to the quarterfinals and they cash it in. The Bosnians were extremely impressive in qualifying, winning Greece’s group on goal difference with a massive plus-24 (compared to Greece’s plus-8). There’s talent here, starting in goal with my unhealthy crush on Asmir Begovic. Up front, Eden Dzeko is the name commodity, waiting to shin in some crucial goals from two yards out off a rebound, but Saint Louis University product Vedad Ibisevic is an excellent player and a cool human interest story.

Worst case: I can’t imagine them not making it through this group, but I guess crazier things can happen if they lose the opener to the Argentines. A more realistic floor is a second-place finish and a disspiriting round of 16 loss to Switzerland or something.

Iran

Best case: Let’s say the locals are not exactly going crazy for the Cup, but teams in this group won’t be all that excited to see the stingy Iranian defense, either. They actually won their final qualifying group over perennial regional power South Korea, allowing only two goals in eight matches. If the Iranians win the battle of group outsiders to put some pressure on the potential loser of the opening battle between Argentina and Bosnia, anything can happen in the final two matches. Ashkan Dejagah stars yet Fulham somehow gets to keep him for their promotion bid.

Worst case: They only scored eight goals in their eight final-round qualifiers, and they’re not going to face Uzbekistan, Qatar or Lebanon in group play. Light on firepower and not good enough to keep the two top teams in this group, they start off by not getting the full three points from Nigeria and it just gets worse from there. Dejagah signs with Mark Hughes at Stoke.

Nigeria

Best case: I promised myself I would make it through this section without making an email scam joke, so here goes nothing. This isn’t a group littered with particularly speedy teams, so the Nigerians could impose their style on enough of the group to sneak through to the knockout stage. They have multiple players in attack who can make something out of very little, which is a nice skill to have at the highest international level. They need to beat Iran in their opener, which is very possible, and then hope to play well against the possible loser of the opening encounter between the Argies and Bosnia. Pound Iran by enough, and advancement on four points isn’t unthinkable.

Worst case: They have not had a good run-up to the Cup, with their string of dicey warmup matches culminating in being entirely outplayed by the U.S. last week. Could they lose to Iran? Certainly. Would that basically eliminate them after one match? Almost certainly.

Group F prediction: 1. Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2. Argentina

Group G

Germany

Best case: They remain healthy enough to win the whole thing. The winner of Group G has a pretty manageable path to the semifinals, as many of the tournament’s other major contenders are on the other side of the bracket. Jogi Löw answers once and for all who was the brains behind the 2006 German team, pounding compatriot and former boss Jurgen Klinsmann. Dark beers, gigantic steins and schnitzel continue to become more en vogue in the U.S.

Worst case: Long club seasons have worn down the Germans even beyond what’s already made itself known through injury. The U.S. gets revenge 12 years later for the Torsten Frings/Hugh Dallas fiasco, and the result knocks the Germans down to second in the group, where they run into Belgium and are taken out, shockingly, in the Round of 16. Budweiser wins an award at Oktoberfest.

Ghana

Best case: Dos a Uno becomes a Ghana thing as they beat the U.S. by that score for the third straight Cup, and springboard off that result all the way into the final eight. Then they overcome their own ghosts — those of Luis Suarez’s last-second handball on the line and Asamoah Gyan’s penalty that grazed the crossbar on its way over the goal — and punch their way into the semifinals. The run backs up their pre-tournament standing as having the best uniforms in the event, and validates the decision to slow down the largest aluminum smelter in the country as to not prevent locals from having enough power to watch the matches on television.

Worst case: After the help of a very generous penalty in 2006 and winning while being outplayed in 2010, the bill comes fully due for Ghana against the U.S. in their opener. The second match is against Germany, and a loss there combined with a U.S. point vs. Portugal eliminates them after two matches. The aluminum smelter and accompanying energy loan from the Ivory Coast aren’t enough, and Ghana is left in the dark, literally, as well.

Portugal

“Hi, Cristiano. Can’t wait for you to get home tonight.”

Best case: Feeling right at home in Portugeuse-speaking Brazil, Ronaldo’s healthy and unstoppable. The Ronaldoettes defend and counter well enough to make the quarterfinals. The Ironbound area of Newark celebrates around platters of meat and fresh seafood stews. Jeff Agoos guests for the U.S. defense and volleys home an auto-golazo, just for old time’s sake.

Worst case: Ronaldo, worn down by a draining season and/or Irina Shayk, doesn’t have it, and shorn of their talisman, the Portuguese are exposed as a one-trick pony. Teams in the group cut out Portugal’s transition opportunities and then hammer them with fitness, strength and set pieces. This is a terrible group for them in terms of physicality. Mix in a match in the Amazonian swamp, and it’s another three-and-out when with the U.S.

United States

Landon Phelps, er, Donovan, could provide the right motivation for Klinsmann and Co.

Best case: Germany’s injuries wear down even their staggering quality of depth. Cristiano Ronaldo is mortal. Ghana finally gets what’s been coming to them for eight years. Seven points and winning the group, with a run to the semifinals available assuming Belgium wins Group H. Jurgen Klinsmann rips off the final piece from a Landon Donovan cutout in the locker room, Major League-style, as Men in Blazers film it for an ESPN @30for30.

Worst case: Group of Death beatdown. Three losses. Soccer haters drown in their schadenfreude. Landon Donovan goes HAM on Klinsmann while on ESPN’s set during the tournament. Kobe Bryant asks why Klinsmann’s being paid seven figs as Michael Wilbon fistpumps in the background.

Group G prediction: 1. Germany, 2. Ghana (sorry, I had to)

Group H

Algeria

Best case: The minnow rises! People are sleeping some on a pretty talented African side, in part because they didn’t score a goal in the 2010 World Cup and were last seen skulking off after Landon Donovan’s heroics. They actually are riding a Cup-record-tying five-game goalless streak. Less recalled is that they allowed only two goals in the ’10 Cup, and they’re now playing a more expansive style that should enable them to score enough to potentially advance from a so-so group. Watch for 19-year-old Tottenham hotshot Nabil Bentaleb and others as the youthful offset to an experienced roster that’s played in some big, high-pressure international matches.

Worst case: The pedigree of Belgium, the skill and discipline of Russia and the workrate of South Korea combine to be too much in composite. Vahid Halilhodzic’s youth infusion isn’t the tonic and they still can’t find the net enough to rake the required points. They live down to expectations again and finish a tepid last in the group.

Belgium

Mmmmmm, frites.

Best case: Lukaku. Hazard. Witsel. Januzaj. Kompany. Courtois. A LOT of others who are very talented. The hipsters’ choice comes totally good, and this golden generation of talent fires them deep into the knockout rounds. Beer. Chocolate. Mussels. Frites. Total victory on all levels. We are all Belgians, except with a superior ability to tolerate and navigate traffic during rush hour.

Worst case: The pressure is too much, despite the bucketloads of talent on this roster. They somehow don’t win the group, run into Germany in their first knockout match and are eliminated sooner than anyone suspects. Hipsters bemoan the Russia-Ghana match for a spot in the final eight. The world misses out on adopting vinegar-laced mayonnaise as a french fry dip.

Russia

Best case: Qatar continues to draw all the attention in the role of “Future World Cup host that has strong doses of corruption and human rights issues” while the Russians whistle in the wind. Fabio Capello proves worth his $11 million a year salary and gets the pre-hosts into the knockout stage with an all-domestic roster. The move of Alan Dzagoev into a more central role pays explosive dividends. The team that won its qualifying group on goal differential ahead of Portugal shows why in an amenable group.

Worst case: People calling for a 2022 revote suddenly suspect there may have been something shady involved in 2018, too, and all heck breaks loose. Capello uncorks a performance similar to his England 2010 side, and they get dragged into games against Algeria and South Korea they don’t find comfortable. There appears to be only one spot in this group beyond Belgium, and they don’t get it.

South Korea

Best case: Lots of hustle, a few scrappy goals, a second-place finish, getting sandblasted by the winner of Group G. Interest in bibimbop and bulkogi rises for a week or two.

Worst case: Lots of hustle, very few scrappy goals, and the team that got mauled by Ghana in their final warmup match goes three-and-out. Americans continue to prefer Japanese cuisine as well as their soccer.

Group H prediction: 1. Belgium, 2. Russia