After the Party is Over
The difference between last season’s version of Leicester City and this season.
Turn out the lights
The party’s over
They say that all
Good things must end
Call it a night
The party’s over
And tomorrow starts
The same old thing again
— Willie Nelson, “The Party’s Over”
Undeniably, it was a magical season for the Foxes and their fans last year. Famously, Leicester City were 5,000-to-1 to win the Premier League before the season began. Though pundits continually downplayed their performance and achievements, Claudio Ranieri’s squad remained on top of the table, taking over the number one spot after their 1–1 draw with Aston Villa on January 16 and never looked back.
So far this season, however, their magic looks more like a Gob Bluth performance.
There were many contributing factors to Leicester’s success on the road to the championship last season, but one of the major reasons was the emergence of Jamie Vardy in the Premier League. His 24 goals were one shy of earning the Golden Boot, accounting for 36% of Leicester’s goals (for comparison, Vardy had scored 26 goals at the start of his career for FC Halifax Town and 31 the following season for Fleetwood Town). Prior to the Foxes’ title season, however, Jamie Vardy only scored five times in 34 appearances. So while it didn’t necessarily come out of nowhere, his 2015–16 season performance was a bit surprising.
However, Leicester’s title defense has looked nothing like last season’s performance so far. Eyes are immediately drawn to Jamie Vardy and his lackluster two goals, which puts him tied for 38th along with Liverpool defender Dejan Lovren, Sunderland defender Patrick van Aanholt, and Stoke City forward Wilfried Bony, who just scored those two goals in the Potters’ recent match against Swansea City (sure, Kevin De Bruyne, Gylfi Sigurdsson, and Willian are included in the Two Goal Club, but that’s not what we’re focussed on here). Considering Jamie Vardy’s goal-scoring run was vital for the Foxes to hoist the trophy, what has been detrimental to their cast-donning striker’s performance?
Thanks to the player radars provided by Ted Knutson of statsbomb.com, you can see how Jamie Vardy has done this season compared to last year. To the left, Jamie Vardy’s 2015–16 season. To the right, the first nine matches Vardy has played this current season. (WARNING: Avert your eyes if you have a weak stomach.)
Whoa.
A couple of things are pretty clear right out of the gate. His shot quality has improved ever so slightly, and his passing percentage, passes into the box, and expected assists numbers look comparable to last season’s numbers. That’s about where the good news ends.
Compared to last season, Vardy is taking nearly 1.5 fewer shots per match this season. And the shots he’s taking aren’t of the same quality as last year, dropping from and xG of 0.47 to 0.29. But the two biggest differences have been his ability to set up his teammates and receiving the ball inside the box. Jamie Vardy had 1.26 key passes per game last season, but that has fallen to 0.89 KPpg this season. Likewise, he had 4.01 touches inside the penalty area in the previous year, but this year he has 1.56. Those are significant drops.
Leicester City was notorious for their successful throughballs to Vardy, but they were also successful in controlling the midfield with their 22.9 tackles per game, which set up scoring opportunities that went beyond playing mere counter attacking football. As you can see in the examples above from Leicester’s victories against Liverpool and Manchester City, if Jamie Vardy wasn’t receiving the ball inside the penalty area, he was receiving passes pretty darn close to it.
This season, Vardy has been left alone at the front of the formation, forced to track deep into the midfield to get a whiff of the Nike Ordem 4. It has gotten so bad, in fact, that Jamie Vardy has been relegated to the role of a spectator for most of the match.
As you’d expect, it’s not all Jamie Vardy’s fault, however. Jamie Vardy is a striker and he can’t do it all. Someone has to get him the ball, and that has not been happening so far. Last year, the team generated 10.3 KPpg, which was 8th-best, but they are creating 7.8 KPpg that ranks them in 15th. Furthermore, their 1.2 assists per game placed them second in the league, but they are only getting 0.7 apg, placing them 17th.
What is causing such a drop in numbers, you rhetorically ask? It might be too easy to blame the departure of N’Golo Kante, but it might be that easy of an explanation. So much of Claudio Ranieri’s flat 4–4–2 relied on Kante’s ability to play box-to-box, recovering the ball almost instantaneously if Leicester lost possession, and distributing the ball to playmakers like Riyad Mahrez and, sneakily, Marc Albrighton.
This season, the N’Golo Kante role was intended for Nampalys Mendy, but Claudio Ranieri has deemed his form not up to snuff, and Daniel Amartey hasn’t been consistent in the midfield to get regular starts. Therefore, Danny Drinkwater has primarily filled in. And, well, it hasn’t gone swimmingly. Teams have begun to realize that he is a hub for transitioning Leicester from defending into attack, and removing him from the equation completely shuts down Leicester’s offense. Looking at a passing map of their recent match against Southampton, displayed on the left and provided by 11tegen11, exemplifies this. And it’s not just Southampton, who have a stout defense. This was occurring in their match against Hull City, as well. It’s what teams have honed in on, and Ranieri doesn’t seem to have an answer.
It’s not just Drinkwater’s fault for their stagnant offense. At the start of the season, Leicester looked to Riyad Mahrez to stimulate the attack, but he has practically gone missing from many matches, making his presence feel more like an Alfred Hitchcock cameo appearance. In matches against Southampton and Tottenham, they’ve restricted his involvement to one side of the pitch, causing his play to be extremely limited and not as free flowing as it was last season.
Blaming Jamie Vardy is the easy part. He is the team’s striker who isn’t scoring and has a known history of racism. But when you examine Leicester further, you’ll see a bigger issue. The ball isn’t being distributed as well as last season, they aren’t quick enough to win the ball back after they have lost possession, and there hasn’t been nearly the same productivity from their midfielders to generate an attack. Ranieri has stubbornly stuck to what has worked in the past and doesn’t seem to have the ability to adapt and change with his current roster of players. Call it a night – the party’s over.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to the podcast on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
