We Need to Talk About Kevin
Gameiro hasn’t been the striker partner Diego Simeone had hoped, and it’s crushing Atlético Madrid
There was a huge Diego Costa/David Villa-sized hole in Atlético Madrid’s lineup after the 2013–14 season. After Chelsea purchased Diego Costa for £32 million and David Villa departed for NYCFC on a free transfer after just one season, Atleti watched 27 and 13 goals, respectively, leave the Vicente Calderón. It was a huge undertaking to replenish the productivity that contributed to their surprise La Liga title, and it felt like Atlético’s dream season would be just that: one season.
Enter: Antoine Griezmann and Mario Mandzukic. The French striker, who spent his first five seasons at Real Sociedad, was reportedly purchased near his €30 million (UK£24 million) buy-out clause, while the Croatian striker and Bundesliga star was brought in for an undisclosed fee. It appeared Atleti got its striker combo back, with the small-but-speedy Griezmann playing well with the powerful workhorse that is Mandzukic. The duo scored 22 and 12 goals, respectively, and Atlético looked poised to consistently challenge the league’s biggest clubs in Barcelona and rivals Real Madrid, as well as becoming regulars in the Champions League.
What a difference a season makes. Not that Atleti needed reminding of that.
Italian football factory Juventus suffered a disappointing exit from the Champions League that season and looked to revamp their squad. Directly in their scope was Mandzukic, who left for €19 million. Once again, Atleti were left scrambling to find a striker—this time, a target man who paired well with the shifty Griezmann. Seemingly reluctantly at first, they were left to rely on castaway Fernando Torres, but the chance taken on him appeared to work. Griezmann scored 22 goals to Torres’ 11, and the emphasis on defending helped keep the club competitive. However, Fernando Torres was going on 32. And, he is still Fernando Torres. So while it was a nice temporary fix, looking to the future, a younger option would be required.
Enter: Kevin Gameiro.
Though he wasn’t Diego Simeone’s first choice, Gameiro seemed like a safe bet. Starting at FC Lorient, Gameiro scored 39 goals in 71 appearances. He then went to Paris Saint-Germain, where is productivity slowed to 19 goals in 60 appearances. However, he picked the pace back up upon his move to Sevilla, scoring 38 goals in 92 appearances, fitting in very well with Unai Emery’s 4–2–3–1 system. It looked as though he found a new comfort in La Liga, making the pairing with Griezmann look like a sure thing. And, you know, Griezmann and Gameiro could speak French to one another and stuff.
After twenty matches, Griezmann has eight goals and four assists while Kevin Gameiro has six goals and four assists. It started out well enough: in four of the first six matches both players were active, one or both of the tandem scored. The numbers for Gameiro currently show him tied for 15th-most in goals and 9th-most in assists. At first glance, it appears things should be going well for Atlético Madrid. So why am I throwing shade at Kevin Gameiro? Isn’t the situation with the club working out just fine?
The short answer is: no. That’s because, in the thirteen matches after that, one or both have only scored in three matches. What made tandems like Griezmann and Mandzukic, or Diego Costa and David Villa in the previous iteration, work in Diego Simeone’s system was the pairing of a nimble, quick false nine and a powerful, marauding target man. The two strikers up front could play off one another and disrupt back lines, whether it was through fast, diagonal off-the-ball movements or muscling through a defender and fighting for position to create space.
With Gameiro and Griezmann, both are essentially the same player. Both players want to use their speed to create chances, but end up in each other’s way for most of the match. What makes Gameiro significantly less effective, however, is that he continually forces ill-advised shots and doesn’t interact with his teammates for most of the match. Simeone’s system relies heavily on a team dynamic, and Gameiro’s style is too individualistic. Because he requires so much of the ball, it’s not allowing Griezmann—and his other teammates—a chance to work the ball around in attack and create chances. This forces Griezmann to drift all over the pitch, just to get a chance to work on creating attacking opportunities with his teammates.
Further, a big key to Diego Simeone’s attacking tactic is aerial attacks, an area in which Diego Costa and Mario Mandzukic excelled—even Fernando Torres could head in a goal or three. This season, that tactic is unachievable with two small players inside the penalty area. Their attack has become one-dimensional, and while the expected goal numbers are comparable to last season’s figures, much of these are skewed by inflated victories where they outperformed their xG numbers, such as a 5–0 win versus Sporting Gijón (where they had an xG of 3 for the match) and a 7–1 win against Granada (an xG of 2.6)—two relegation-threatened teams. In fact, they have only exceeded an xG of 1 eight times this season, with the last time being nine matches ago hosting Real Madrid, where they lost 3–0.
It is now too late to find a target man that fits the needs and fills the void through the winter transfer window. This isn’t to say that Atleti can’t be competitive: they’re currently in fourth place with a +18 goal differential, and are one and two points ahead of Real Sociedad and Villarreal, respectively. Not to mention, they still have a stellar defense that, while not as insurmountable as last season, is still allowing 0.9 xG per 90 (tied for third-best with Villarreal), as well as conceding a goal for every 12.88 shots allowed—third-best in La Liga, and leaps ahead of the three current Champions League qualifiers ahead of them.
They can make up for a lot of the aforementioned deficiencies if they can get stronger wing play out of Yannick Carrasco and Ángel Correa, and it appears this has begun to occur with recent matches. Koke has started to play more centrally, which has given them a stronger presence at the top of the box during attack like they would have gotten from Diego Costa and Mandzukic (though he doesn’t quite have the goal-scoring skill set those two gentlemen had… nor the ability to pull off Diego Costa-esque mind games). Simeone has even attempted to go beyond his beloved Flat 4–4–2 and try a 4–2–3–1 in which Gameiro might be more comfortable… except they are 0–3–0 in those matches. At some point, Fernando Torres will need to be relied upon heavily once again, but without a true number nine to pair with Griezmann, the Gameiro experiment is certainly on its way to being chalked up as a huge letdown.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to their show on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
