Modeste at the Top
What has led to Anthony Modeste’s hot start for FC Köln.
Before the start of this Bundesliga season, there was likely one or two names you would have in mind regarding the scoring leader after the first quarter of the season. Something tells me Anthony Modeste would not have made that list initially. He probably wouldn’t have even been a write-in candidate on your ballot.
Last season, Modeste scored 15 goals in 34 appearances, which tied his career high from his 2012-13 season with SC Bausta (15 goals in 36 appearances). In nine matches this season, he has already scored 11 goals — four more than the next-highest contenders, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Robert Lewandowski. What is causing this fantastic run of results for Modeste, and is it sustainable?
If you’ve watched Köln at any point this season, you’ll be able to spot one significant difference. Taking a look at their April 29th match against FC Augsburg last season, where they drew 0–0, you can see how deep into the midfield he had to be to receive any passes. So much of his chance creation came from his own individual skill with the ball, and in their 4–2–3–1, he hardly had any help. Look for yourself at how many of his received passes came from the goalkeeper!
This season, Modeste has received much more support, allowing him to make more off-the-ball runs and cause disruption to the opponent’s back line. To compare, seven of his 21 received passes were inside the penalty area, whereas in the example from last season, only one pass out of 29 was received there.
Instead of taking on defenders by himself, he is able to use his underrated speed to time his runs inside the penalty area, where he can attempt goal chances that have a greater probability of scoring; as you can see from the player radar, his 0.60 xG per 90 minutes leads the Bundesliga. For example, all eight of his shot attempts were taken inside the penalty area in their recent match against Hamburg.
Modeste’s success to start this season isn’t solely because of him: it’s the boots. (Okay, not really.) As you may have guessed, Köln’s midfield has vastly improved, as well as pairing with Yuya Osako at the top instead of going it alone. Peter Stöger’s adjustment from a 4–2–3–1 to intermittently switching between a flat 4–4–2 and a 3–5–2 (more like a 3–1–4–2) has improved their transition and fluidity in attack that keeps their opponents on their heels.
The link up of play amongst the midfield has become much more organized. An example of this can be seen in their recent match against Hamburg, thanks to the passing map of 11tegen11:
Thanks to great interconnectivity amongst their midfielders, Modeste’s teammates are actually getting the ball to him on a consistent basis. Marcel Risse, Leonardo Bittencourt, and Jonas Hector have generated dynamic attacks from the wings, but Matthias Lehmann and Marco Höger have also become solid distributors of the ball as main attacking hubs. Rather than playing defensively, their central midfielders are able to progress forward, especially when Köln play with three in the back line. Typically, Lehmann will stay behind and act as a sweeper in front of the back line if Köln’s instructions are to be cautious of a counter attack, but they are still able to generate enough width to spread out the opposing defenders.
Along with that, the shifty Osako has paired well with the power of Modeste. When Osako makes a run to draw defenders away from Modeste, more scoring opportunities arise, which has produced the fifth-best xG/90 in the Bundesliga at 1.69. To put it in perspective, their xG/90 last season was 0.99. In instances when Artjoms Rudnevs joins them up front, their off-the-ball movement regularly confuses their markers.
Köln will need to be careful, however, as their match against Hertha Berlin exposed a flaw in their approach this season. By clogging up the middle of the pitch, Hertha forced Köln to play down the flanks – on the right, in particular, as 43% of play was on this side the entire match. It’s pretty easy to stop a team when they become one dimensional, and for the most part, Hertha forced their opponents into a cul-de-sac from which they had a lot of difficulty being efficient. Sure, Modeste was able to score, but the Billy Goats’ open play became very disjointed, and ultimately they lost the match. Köln will need to become more consistent in dominating the midfield if they want to continue their fluid and free-flowing attack.
During the 2015–16 season, the Billy Goats’ attack was, well, lacking. Their goal differential was a -4, and their expected goal differential followed suit, which was a -3.8. After nine matches, their xGD is +5.6, but their GD is even greater at +10. This suggests that Köln are overachieving a bit, but it’s still a very credible improvement, especially since most of that overachievement is on the defensive side. Though Anthony Modeste is only four goals away from tying his career high in goals, and it’s highly unlikely this scoring pace can hold for the entire season (I mean, come on: 11 goals in nine matches? Do you think he’s really going to score 42 goals this season? Exactly.), Modeste and Köln are looking like a team that might be playing in Europe next season if they can continue playing this effectively.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to the podcast on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
