Extinction Level Event
Are the Dinos built to avoid relegation from the Bundesliga?
Growing up in Washington, D.C., my mother would regularly take my brother and I to the many museums that span the length of the National Mall, including the Air & Space Museum, the east and west buildings of the National Art Gallery, and the Natural History Museum. It was in that latter museum that I always had the most fun, looking at the different creatures that spanned the world and learning how they adapted to their environment to survive. In another wing of the building resided the dinosaurs, seemingly mythological and other worldly as they towered over the crowds that came to ogle at the bones that remained, our only link to an era where these monstrous being roamed the planet and ruled with authority before being destroyed by an astronomical event.
I can’t help but feel the same way about Hamburg.
After finishing tenth last season, there seemed to be cause for hope. Before then, however, they finished 16th twice, 6th, and then 15th before that. This once-great club seemed to be in an enormous rut, looking like a shell of a shell of a shell of the team that won so many titles back in the day. To call it a roller coaster would be incorrect; it’s more like a game of bumper cars, where majority of the 17 other cars repeatedly seek them out and ram them into oblivion while Hamburg are the father-son duo that kept driving in circles until time elapses.
This season began to look more of the same. Before their first victory, a 2–0 win at Darmstadt which came on Matchday 13 (you read that correctly), they were 0–4–8, having scored a league-worst eight goals while conceding the second-most goals at 27. The situation was bleak, and it appeared their fortune of having never been relegated from the Bundesliga was about to come to an end.
Suddenly, they have won their last three matches in all competitions, defeating Cologne in the DFB-Pokal, as well as a 1–0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen and, recently, a 3–0 win at RB Leipzig, giving the Red Bulls their first home defeat of the season. This run of form has seen them emerge from the relegation zone for the first time since Matchday 2, and the season and their outlook has become much brighter. There is much reason to feel hopeful, but is there an asteroid awaiting them to destroy all the current progress they’re enjoying?
The obvious improvement has been their defending. Not to beat a dead stegosaurus, but a frequent target of our vitriol on the Bundesliga podcast has been the loathsome defending of Swiss defender Johan Djourou. Far too frequently, Djourou was the epitome of what not to do as a defender. Getting caught out of position by drifting too high up the pitch, failing to track back and mark a forward who timed a run right behind him, failing to close down on an active shooter and allowing clean attempts from range—all these, and more, were a significant detriment to achieving any kind of solid defending strategies necessary to avoid the bottom of the table.
Of course, the onus to defend doesn’t rest solely on one man’s shoulders, and the likes of Diekmeier and Cléber were also inconsistent and slow to react to any kind of attack. Fortunately, the additions of Kyriakos Papadopoulos and Mergim Mavraj have helped tremendously. Like the Tyrannosaurus Rex, the mere presence of these two center backs commands respect, as they have already outperformed their predecessors in defending, with 9 and 4.8 clearances per game (compared to 5, 1.9, and 3 from Djourour, Diekmeier, and Cléber, respectively), more tackles per game (2.5 and 2.5 versus 1.4, 1.5, and 2), and winning more aerial duels per game (4.8 and 6 versus 3.3, 1.3, and 2.6).
The changes have been slight, but noticeable. Before the winter break, Hamburg allowed 14.9 shots per match along with an expected goals allowed per shot (xGApSH) a league-worst 0.138. While their xGApSH is still the worst in the league, it has gotten better, up to 0.129, as well as conceding 13.8 shots per match. They are still bad numbers, but you can see they’ve begun to head in the right direction, at least. The latest CB duo has done a much better job outmuscling their opposition, and even against a speedy and dynamic attack like Leipzig, they were able to limit the effectiveness of their opposition’s chances. It’s been sort of a blessing to have Djourou out with a muscle injury, allowing these two to fill in more than adequately. Add to that the set piece specialist Papadopoulos has been for the club in the last two matches, and Hamburg look improved at the position already.
While the defending adjustments are fine and swell, it’s the attack that needed the most improvement. As it stands, the Dinos have increased their xG per 90 from 0.8 to 0.9, and their xGpSH has gone from 0.073 to 0.082, all while still averaging 10.9 shots per match. These numbers, though improved, are still terrifying. A squad with Nicolai Müller, Lewis Holtby, Michael Gregoritsch, and Filip Kostic should be performing more consistently for their attack. Only Müller has been consistent with four goals and a team-leading six assists. Otherwise, their offense hasn’t seen much variance from what they were doing amidst the non-winning streak.
A major issue has been getting any kind of reliable productivity out of their forwards. THE AMERICAN, Bobby Wood, is tied with Nicolai Müller for the most goals on the team (4), but beyond the two goals in two matches he scored to start the season, he has only scored two goals in 15 appearances since. Not to mention, Hamburg don’t have many striker options beyond Wood. Pierre-Michel Lasogga hasn’t scored in his 13 appearances, and unless their midfielders can strike on a counter attack, their offense tends to fall short. During Wood’s suspension after receiving a red card, their solution… was making Gregoritsch their forward. Oof.
Teams are able to easily force Hamburg wide and play down the wings, with only the Ostrzolek-to-Kostic connection being the most consistent and effective – relatively speaking, of course. Hamburg cannot get reliable play on their right side or through the middle, making them one-dimensional at best and far too predictable. With their inability to feed their attacking players on a regular basis, they’re left to rely on set pieces and Papadopoulos heading those chances in. That’s a dangerous recipe, since there’s no way to get two set piece goals per match as they did against Leipzig week-in, week-out, no matter how impressive Papadopoulos is.
With Gregoritsch’s ankle injury (though he hopes to return soon) and Müller sitting on four yellow cards, the way to begin generating a dynamic attack is going to have to come from latest addition, Walace. The Brazilian CDM needs to become a vital pivot and direct traffic, allowing Gideon Jung to sit in front of the back line and help prevent counter attacking attempts, since he is a better defender than someone who can help in transition from defense to attack. The midfielders are given too much liberty to roam and lack organization, which has created a lack of open passing lanes for teammates to avoid traps. What allowed Hamburg to keep pace with Leipzig in their recent match was the Walace-to-Müller connection, and while imperfect, Markus Gisdol would be wise to utilize that tandem to allow Gotoku Sakai some breathing room to create chances wide and give Müller the ability to drift inside instead of being forced wide, as you can see in the above passing map. Even then, the idea of relying on Walace or Sakai at the moment feels like taking a chance with which I wouldn’t be all too comfortable.
Like many young boys, I was obsessed with dinosaurs. I collected many figurines and wore many shirts that were adorned with those ancient reptiles. I was fascinated with learning the history of these great creatures, wondering what it must have been like in the era where they dominated the landscape. Nowadays, it’s difficult to look upon the bones—or the gold star upon Hamburg’s kits—and not recall how at one time they were so authoritative, but are no longer.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to their show on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
