How France Will Win Euro 2016

Using a formation that highlights their strengths, France has become the dynamic squad we expected them to be.

Patrick Onofre
The Challengers Podcast

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It’s the reason I don’t read reviews of movies, restaurants, or music. All it takes is a few writers, analysts, or pundits rubber stamping their #hottake on a new TV show or novel and expectations climb to astronomically high levels. Someone with a lot of social media influence can say a movie is terrible, and like oxpeckers perched atop a rhinoceros, others will feast on that influencer’s take and parrot that response. (Is it okay that I just made references to two different birds in the same metaphor? I guess it will have to do.)

The pundits were at it again, but understandably so, in this case. France was the host nation for Euro 2016, and they were still working on improving their tarnished image after an embarrassing exit from the 2010 World Cup. Didier Deschamps, who was apart of Les Bleus’ last major victories on the international stage when they won the World Cup in 1998 (also on French soil) and the 2000 Euros, had the task of erasing those bitter memories and returning their nation to glory.

This is a different-looking team than the one rolled out just two years ago for the 2014 World Cup, where they lost 1–0 to eventual champions, Germany. Deschamps retooled this squad with newly emerged players like Dimitri Payet, Kingsley Coman, and N’Golo Kanté, while shuffling around the positions and roles for the other players from that team. France were the heavy favorites before the tournament began, though their sluggish start had many pundits stare at this team with raised eyebrows. However, their recent form has brought critics to their side, and with a talented group of players in positions better suited for their skill set, it is exactly why France is going to win Euro 2016 (maybe).

Coming into the tournament, Deschamps began with a 4–3–3 formation that seemed like a natural fit, flanking Olivier Giroud with Antoine Griezmann and Dimitri Payet up front, and utilizing a midfield of Blaise Matuidi, N’Golo Kanté, and Paul Pogba. Initially, the idea was taking advantage of Matuidi, Kanté, and Pogba’s ability to link the back line with the attack while Kanté could patrol the central midfield and emphasizing the speed of Griezmann and Payet to outpace wing defenders.

The issue France ran into was that everyone got placed into user specific roles that limited what they could do. What should have been a dynamic attack ended up looking stale and unimaginative. They ended the Switzerland match with a 0–0 draw after only outshooting the Swiss 14–6 with four on target to Switzerland’s zero, and in a match against Romania in which they should have easily dominated, they barely squeaked by in a 2–1 victory due to Payet’s late game winner. After the first half against Ireland, France found themselves down 1–0 after only outshooting Ireland 8–4, and arguing with each other in the tunnel. This was not the French side people expected to see on the field, and concerns were raised.

Deschamps’ solution was abandoning the 4–3–3 and switching to a 4–2–3–1 for the second half. N’Golo Kanté was replaced with Kingsley Coman, who played wide right, Pogba and Matuidi dropped back into CDM positions, though they would still advance forward in attacking play, and Griezmann went from being a RW to a CM at the #10 spot.

The results were immediately noticeable. Outside of Shane Duffy earning a red card in the 65th minute to bring Ireland down to playing with ten men, France outshot Ireland 17–2 with 64.3% possession. With the 4–2–3–1, Griezmann is no longer restricted to the right side of the pitch, allowing him to play more openly as he drifts either left or right in attack. This movement has given opposing defenses difficulties in man marking when France overloads to one side of the pitch. Furthermore, this has given France the ability to take control over the midfield, as Pogba and Matuidi’s roles on offense are still intact and not diminished, allowing Les Bleus to play the dynamic attacking style everyone thought they’d play with initially.

Similarly to Portugal, France hasn’t relied heavily on a striker to lead their team in scoring. Griezmann has six goals while Payet is tied with forward Olivier Giroud with three. In the 4–2–3–1, France has placed an emphasis on getting their midfield forward in attack, allowing Giroud’s movement to draw defensive backs to one side while Bacary Sagna and Patrice Evra play down the flanks to give their attack width, allowing midfield players like Griezmann, Pogba, and Payet to exploit the pockets of space created.

If Griezmann has been the biggest revelation for France’s attack, the subtle 12th man, if you will, has been Moussa Sissoko’s presence on the right. Kingsley Coman has the speed to cause disruption to opposing defenses down the flank, but he isn’t as solid on defense as Sissoko has been. Plus Sissoko’s physical style of play has limited what opponents are able to do on the left, and it has allowed France to not just rely on crosses coming from the right, as he is able to make disruptive cuts inside that pair well with the player movement of his nimbler teammates.

The change in formation still has its drawbacks, however. Having CDMs in front of the shaky CBs helps solidify their defending, but Matuidi and Pogba aren’t true CDMs. Though he’s good at tackling and cutting off passing lanes, Matuidi plays a LM in PSG’s 4–3–3. Paul Pogba also plays from the left in Juventus’ 3–5–2 and is more attack-oriented in his style of play. They haven’t been a detriment to France’s defensive objectives, but there are noticeable growing pains as they are still learning their roles. Against a defense-first Portugal, much might not be asked of the two defensively, and Pogba could comfortably advance forward to help on offense without fear of the space he leaves behind getting exploited.

Against Germany two years ago, the back line was made of Evra, Raphael Varane, Mamadou Sakho, and Mathieu Debuchy. When faced with the organized and efficient German attack, they kept up for the most part, but were still exploited and ultimately lost the battle. Deschamps completely changed things around, bringing in Laurent Koscielny, Adil Rami, and Samuel Umtiti, while starting Bacary Sagna at right back.

Sagna has done well to restrict opponents’ play on the right while Evra’s leadership has been priceless along with his physical play on at left back. But despite the wing defenders locked in, center back has been a bit of a question mark. Koscielny has shown flashes, but he’s been less than consistent in his defensive focus, and even less can be said about Umtiti and Rami in the positive. They have difficulty picking out who they should be marking when the opposition builds up an attack and can get caught out frequently.

What has helped this defense is the presence of Matuidi positioning himself further back than when France was playing a 4–3–3. Having Matuidi patrol the territory in front of their back line has taken a lot of pressure off, but the other “CDM”, Pogba, still has some shortcomings, defensively. When N’Golo Kanté has been brought in, he does well to provide more help on defense, but his link up play in Euro 2016 hasn’t been as effective as it is for his club, Leicester City.

Deschamps seems to have landed on Pogba and Matuidi at CDM, willing to live or die with their presence on the pitch. They contribute so much in the attack that their defensive skills might be enough to withstand Portugal’s offense. Since Portugal will look to counter attack, if France can keep the pressure and play in Portugal’s defensive third, the defensive shortcomings won’t be noticeable.

There’s no doubt expectations would be high for France, especially given how long it has been since their last major victory on the international stage. Surviving what was arguably the more difficult half of the bracket, running over Iceland like a monster truck versus Bambi, and withstanding and outmuscling Germany, they find themselves in the position many assumed they would be back in early June. But actually meeting expectations and exceeding them are easier said than done, particularly when your opponent is playing on house money and has nothing to lose — Portugal aren’t playing in front of their home nation with the weight of an entire country on their shoulders. However, the adjustments Didier Deschamps has made, highlighting the strengths of this French squad, makes this team live up to the hype after all.

Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to the podcast on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.

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