Fool’s Gold
Why Belgium’s Golden Generation Lacks Luster
It’s been thirty years since the first wave of talent made it to the World Cup semifinals, but once again, Belgium is enjoying a “golden generation” of talent. According to tranfermarkt.com, Belgium have the fifth-highest valued roster in the market while being the fourth-youngest in the Euro 2016 competition. There’s a lot of promise for a roster that, in 2006, was built on a foundation inspired by training centers in France, the Netherlands, and Germany, infusing the 4–3–3 not only by the national team, but at the club level, as well. Former technical director Michel Sablon started making an impact as low as the under-seven and under-eight teams, removing league tables and concentrating on development instead of winning.
After much initial criticism, and along with one of the largest multi-citizenship rosters in Europe, what resulted is the world-class team Belgium is able to nonchalantly roll out every international competition. We’ve been able to witness their skillful play in the 2014 World Cup, where they won a fairly easy group, clawed their way past the USA to make the quarterfinals, and lost to eventual tournament runners-up, Argentina, 1–0. But for a team that is regularly anointed “dark horses” of a major competition and currently ranked second in the world according to FIFA, something about this generation of players feels less convincing than what the rankings will have you believe.
The talent on this roster is undeniable. Eight years ago, only two athletes played on Premier League rosters. Today, that number is twelve while others have joined clubs in Spain, Germany, and beyond. Their formation has changed from the 4–3–3 that was originally implemented to a standard-these-days 4–2–3–1. So far in Euro 2016, they’ve achieved the 7th-best expected goals (4.1) and 6th-best expected goal differential (+1.5), according to Michael Caley. Their actual numbers match fairly close to that, as well. The problem is having the talent gel.
Your guess as to the main attacking strategy Belgium implements is as good as any. Romelu Lukaku is a more athletic throwback of strikers from yesteryear, preferring to have the ball played to his feet and attempt a turnaround jumper of a shot. This works at Everton, where Gerard Deulofeu or Ross Barkley complement his playing style, but not on a squad that consists of Kevin De Bruyne and Yannick Carrasco running-and-gunning from the wings as they deliver low crosses like salmon at the Pike Place Fish Market, or Eden Hazard cutting inside and dribbling into traffic (which Carrasco tends to do, as well).
What makes this more excruciating to watch is when De Bruyne is looking to deliver a missile of a low cross, but Lukaku is two yards behind, unable to split the center backs, and there is no additional help to get on the other end of the pass inside the penalty area. This was very obvious in the match against Italy and additionally noticeable in their match against Sweden. Lukaku has managed to score two goals in this tournament, but they both came against Ireland when the Red Devils attacked with speed and were able to make a play around a stumbling wing defender higher up the pitch. He’s more than capable of making such runs, like some of the attempts he had in the Sweden match, and seeing more of that style of play would be beneficial to Belgium. The issue is that they are few and far between, and Belgium’s attacking strategy doesn’t lend itself to achieving this feat regularly.
When Lukaku moves deeper into the midfield, you can see him help generate a more effective attack than when he plants 15 yards in front of the goal and waits to receive a pass like a center posting up at the hoop in basketball. By moving higher up, he forces opponents to respect him by adding a defender (or two — Lukaku is a big, powerful man, after all) to mark him, which can open up space for his team mates. Look at the difference between where he received passes versus Italy (first image) and versus the Republic of Ireland (second image):
De Bruyne and Hazard are well known to generate a lot of offense for their club sides, and they already have 18 and 11 key passes between them, respectively — the most and tied-for-fifth-most in the tournament. The third-most key passes on Belgium’s squad? Marouane Fellaini with seven. Opportunities are primarily generated by those two midfielders and all four of Belgium’s goals came from an assist. However over three matches, De Bruyne and Hazard have only attempted 9 and 18 passes in to Lukaku (though Hazard made 9 passes to Lukaku in the Ireland match alone). If Romelu Lukaku is the centerpiece of your offense, it is probably best to get him involved; he is currently averaging 2.7 shots per game, which is the 30th-most in Euro 2016 so far. There are defensive-minded midfielders who average more attempts per match.
Watching Belgium attempt to play out of the back is like trying to accomplish a task at a DMV run by sloths. The back line spends a good minute or two passing from side to side, eventually passing into Carrasco, Nainggolan, or Fellaini, who get cornered instantaneously and pass into an interception. The only defender who was able to more consistently start the attack from the back is Laurent Ciman, whose only appearance so far was in the 2–0 loss to Italy at the beginning of the group stage.
Speaking of defenders…
For their club teams, Vermaelen, Vertonghen, Alderweireld, and Meunier have performed well. However, in the 2016 Euros, their play has been mostly inconsistent and as nail-biting as a Liam Neeson action movie plot line. The center backs can be split very easily, as Italy were able to do on both of their goals, and what Zlatan Ibrahimovic did in the second half of the Sweden match. This doesn’t bode very well, as Hungary will be looking to counter attack with Ádám Szalaí up top, and if Belgium advances, they’ll have Gareth Bale, and then potentially Mario Mandzukic/Nikola Kalinic, to contend with.
It can be hard to determine which Belgium performance to take stock from — whether the 2–0 defeat to Italy or the 3–0 thrashing of Ireland is the real Belgium. The Irish lacked the attacking power to truly stump Belgium’s defense, but even with Italy’s squad, which has been determined by Italians as “the least talented (squad) in half a century,” the Belgian defense was under duress when it didn’t need to be. With a more talented attack like what Croatia can offer, this might create enough confusion amongst Belgium’s back line to cause trouble.
And trouble may not come for just the back line; the central defending midfielders, Radja Nainggolan and Axel Witsel, have shown talent on the attacking side of the ball, but tracking back and defending hasn’t been a strong suit so far in this tournament.
To be fair, there was a lot of calamity on that conceded goal (where was Vertonghen going?! And where was Vermaelen?! LOUD NOISES!), but the fact remains, Witsel wasn’t anywhere to be found — Marouane Fellaini tracked back quicker (kind of)!
The main issue is that Belgium are very attack-oriented, and Witsel and Nainggolan excel on offense. Adding them to a mix of Hazard, De Bruyne, and Carrasco, with Origi or Lukaku up top, is a formidable attack. Belgium have outshot their opponents 56–34 with the fourth-best possession percentage (53.7%), but having both CDMs and their LB and RB advance forward, they are leaving themselves open to quick attacks by their opponents. Fortunately for them, they might not face that until the semifinals, of this tournament but it’s still a cause for concern going forward.
Undoubtedly, the line up for Belgium looks like an all-star squad for any European league (well, primarily the Premier League for obvious reasons). Taking into consideration how the chips fell with the placement of knockout round entrants, the Red Devils are poised to make a deep run into Euro 2016, with 11–2 odds to hoist the trophy, tied with Spain — only Germany (9–2) and France (4–1) are higher.
Despite the talent and fortunes of the draw, a lot remains in question with this team and their abilities to go far in the tournament. Will their defense tighten up and get organized, especially when they face a skillful opponent who has the ball and player movement to cause them trouble? Can their offense become cohesive enough to work as a unit and create a fluid attack that makes them one of the most lethal offenses in the world? Will Belgium finally meet the lofty expectations set upon them and reach the finals — or exceed them all and win the title themselves? Until the first two questions can be answered confidently in the affirmative, the third one will always remain.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Check out more of their work at challengerspodcast.com, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
