The Great Pretenders
Are Hertha Berlin contenders for a Champions League spot?
Oh yes I’m the great pretender
Pretending I’m doing well
My need is such I pretend too much
I’m lonely but no one can tell
– The Platters, “The Great Pretender”
When I first cracked into the photography business, I was looking for people who were the best role models for the industry. It was a daunting task, launching a business from scratch, and anyone who was willing to work with upstarts like me were as good as gold. There was one photographer who was crushing it in the wedding photography business, and she would host online seminars and write blog posts about her latest shoot, what she did, and “how FANTASTIC the couple was” (emphasis mine, though perhaps the sentiment is underselling her enthusiasm). It got me motivated as to how I would need to build my business, target couples, and market myself to be the most successful I could be. She was a rock star and was able to shoot just a few weddings a year while living a glamorous life that was regularly broadcast on Instagram, Twitter, and probably aerial advertising, if she so desired.
Eventually, as does any aspiring artist, I began to question those I looked up to and started developing my own style. Months later it would be reported that she allegedly copy and pasted many blog posts and wrote them off (no pun intended) as her own, resulting in many deeming her a fraud and insincere. Though I had already begun having my doubts, it was still disappointing to discover someone I once believed in was actually not as great as she had let on. She is still very successful in the wedding industry, but she has a stink on her now amongst other wedding photographers. This has led me to become more critical (and, ultimately, skeptical) of my peers.
Will and I have always romanticized successful top-tier soccer being played in the German capital, and for the past three years we’ve been covering the Bundesliga on our podcast, it appeared Berlin was finally getting that opportunity in Hertha BSC. They finished the 2015–16 season in seventh, qualifying for the third round of the Europa League, which came after barely escaping relegation the season before. While this season’s Europa League didn’t end as they had hoped (they lost to Brøndby IF 2–3 on aggregate ffs), Hertha find themselves currently third in the table heading into the Rückrunde and in a spot to qualify for the Champions League. But how much should we buy into Hertha Berlin being a top four team?
One of the most noticeable contributors to their success has been their defending. The organize effectively on set pieces in addition to utilizing a rope-a-dope strategy, getting the numbers back on defense, allowing opponents into their territory, recovering possession, then building up play from the back and eventually landing through balls to Vedad Ibisevic and Salomon Kalou. Their defensive composition has allowed one goal for every 11.9 shots conceded, which is the fifth-best rate in the league.
There are times, however, when their back line can get caught out, whether it’s from a high press by their opponents that limits their passing options and forces a mistake, or they will freeze when they have to mark several quick opponents inside the penalty area. In the instance above, Werder Bremen were able to effectively execute a simple three-man press on their back line, with the midfielders patrolling any potential assistance provided by Hertha’s midfielders (which didn’t really happen) and score the match’s only goal. On the other side, and as seen below, Leipzig were able to make diagonal runs into the box and outnumber the defenders inside the penalty area. Here, as Marcel Sabitzer passes back to Diego Demme, Bernardo makes a diagonal run towards Timo Werner. Fabian Lustenberger compounded his own troubles by moving with the intent on stopping Naby Keita’s run. Except that run never happened, and Keita could pass to Werner or Bernardo as Marvin Plattenhardt had to frantically sprint back to provide some semblance of coverage, but it was too late. This is why Leipzig’s passing map, provided by 11tegen11, is filled with solid connections between the players, particularly in the midfield, as everyone was able to be actively and comfortably involved in the attack and overwhelm Hertha in their 2–0 victory over BSC. This is why a team shouldn’t be surprised that, when you invite someone to hang out in your territory for an excessive amount of time and dare them to pull off an attempt, they don’t oblige.
Hertha’s offense has been clinical, though an argument can be made that they have significantly overachieved in comparison to their on-the-field performances. Their actual Goals For is 24, which is nearly seven higher than Expected Goals (17.2), and they average 10.3 shots per game—only Darmstadt attempt fewer than BSC. Along with that, their Expected Goal per Shot (xGpSH) is 0.104, putting them a hair below the league average, and they also create 7.1 key passes per game, which is the second-fewest in the Bundesliga. These numbers indicate they have been more lucky than clinical, especially when there are frequent accounts of them forced to defend their own territory for long stretches of the match (27% of the match, which is seventh-highest, if we’re counting, which we are).
Even then, they score a goal for every 6.87 shots attempted, which is the second-best rate in the league next to Köln (for comparison, the league average is 10.05 SHpG). This is because 56 percent of the shots they attempt are taken inside the 18-yard box, which ties them for seventh-highest in the league. They are extremely patient, passing the ball around until they find an opening and don’t hurry their attempts, as you can see in the passing map against Darmstadt above.
This play against Mainz is a good example of what Hertha attempt on offense: moments before, Peter Pekarik intercepted a pass and moved to the center to set up the attack. Vedad Ibisevic moved back to position himself to accept the pass. Rather than trying to maneuver around the defender, he identified Vladimir Darida wide open on the right. Instead of taking a poor shot from a bad angle or forcing a pass to another player, Darida waited to explore his options, choosing to reset the play at the top while Ibisevic worked to get open inside the penalty area. Despite losing the ball, and Niklas Stark’s deflected shot attempt, Salomon Kalou, with a little good fortune, beats the defender to the high ball and heads it to a now open Ibisevic. Hertha Berlin opt for the shot that stands to have a higher return on investment over taking a large number of low-quality chances.
Since you’re an astute reader, you’ll recall that their xGpSH is around league average and not stellar like Borussia Dortmund’s 0.120 or Leipzig’s league-leading 0.134. That’s because, while Hertha remain patient on offense instead of rushing shots, they far too often wait for the “perfect opportunity” to take an attempt on goal, which more often than not never arrives—hence the extremely low 10.3 shots per game. In fact, they have zero counter attacking goals, are tied for the second-most goals from penalty kicks (3), and are tied with Augsburg for the fourth-most goals from set pieces (5); only Ingolstant, Mainz, and Hoffenheim have more.
There is a lot of reason fans of Hertha can be excited for the second half of the season. Their last international trophy was the now-defunct Intertoto Cup in the summer of 2006, and before their Europa run in 2010 and 2016, they last qualified for the UEFA Cup due to the UEFA Respect Fair Play ranking in 2007—right before they got relegated the following year. It’s been a while since Berlin has gotten to enjoy regular appearances in international competition, but they now find themselves in a position to consistently compete for qualifying spots to be a part of them. However, with the shakiness of their play and overachieving results so far this season, in addition to greater consistency in form from the four teams beneath them in the table, there is plenty of room for speculation about their current ability to maintain this level of success. It may not yet be time to kill one’s idols and doubt the narrative they have built this season, but the numbers and performances before the winter break indicate there isn’t much room for extensive optimism.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to their show on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod
