Learning La Liga
Part 9 – The Wheat from the Chaff
The three leagues we follow on our podcast have resumed, meaning the marathon recording sessions of our podcast have started up again, as well. Recording the shows back-to-back-to-back is enjoyably exhausting, but since we’re still feeling out the top flight of Spanish football, it’s exciting to resume my discovery and education of the league.
The wheat has started to separate from the chaff and the clubs destined to qualify for a Champions League spot seem all but solidified (even though one such club currently sits outside the top four, but who’s counting?) and the two (*cough cough it’ll be three*) Europa League qualifications look locked in, as well. However, we’ve seen a rash of injuries that have made the precise finish in the table a bit uncertain. While newcomer FiveThirtyEight seems to feel Barcelona has the stronger chance to finish first, soccer analytics folks who have been at this longer like 11tegen11 feel the title will go to rivals Real Madrid.
My qualm with FiveThirtyEight probably* stems from their failed election coverage. They relied almost solely on polls from various organizations and news outlets, then weighted them according to narrative. In fact, frequently their “Now Cast”—the idea that “if the election were held today”, “immediate reaction” that ignored how polls had been trending—would point out that, while Hilary Clinton may have been projected to have a larger margin of victory than Donald Trump, pollsters might want to take his candidacy and chances of winning a bit more seriously. By election day, Clinton held a 71.4% chance of winning, which is obviously not guaranteeing her as the 45th President, but stated her chances were strong.
We all saw how that turned out.
Nate Silver & Co. frequently touted how their predictions of Clinton were far more conservative than their peers, suggesting they were less confident of a Clinton victory than other forecasters. Good for you. What 2016 has taught us about predictions and forecasting is that a focus solely on cold numbers and historic data doesn’t tell the entire picture. While I certainly expect Barcelona to be competitive, Real Madrid have a game in hand, and the injuries to Iniesta and Busquets on their squad seem much more impactful than Gareth Bale’s injury has meant to Real Madrid. While Bale certainly had a major influence on their play, Zinedine Zidane has adjusted his strategy accordingly, and as we all see, Real sit atop the table. Barcelona’s attack and transition hasn’t looked the same while Iniesta has been off the pitch, even when the numbers look just fine. Watching the matches would inform anyone of this, which is why Will and I pair the numbers with tactics and strategies.
The Three-Headed, Two-Horse Race
Speaking of pairing numbers with tactics, everyone who is involved in forecasting the title race seems certain it will come down to Real Madrid and Barcelona. At the moment, Sevilla is a point behind the league leaders (though Real have a match yet to play). But everyone is confident they aren’t legitimate contenders.
What do we think? Well, not to take away anything from their major accomplishments this season, we probably agree. Their expected goal differential is +9.1 (29.1 xG, 20.0 xGA), but they have scored 42 goals while allowing 25 for an actual GD of +17. Top teams overachieve all the time—compare Real Madrid’s GD of +31 to their xGD of +27.4 or Barcelona’s +34 GD to their +31.1 xGD. However, Sevilla’s difference is just nuts.
There have been significant contributors to their campaign, such as Samir Nasri and an evolved role for Steven N’Zonzi, plus newcomer Stevan Jovetic. But a good number of their goals come as a result of bailing out a less-than-stellar defense that has conceded a goal for every 8.44 shots allowed and frequently gets involved in shootouts. While Sevilla will defend adequately more often than not, as they did recently against Real Madrid, they will also throw out a stinker like their recent 4–3 victory over Osasuna, the 3–2 wins over Leganés and Deportivo La Coruña, or the 6–4 barnburner against Espanyol that started the season. While they certainly look like Champions League qualifiers, there aren’t enough examples this season to give anyone confidence that they are legitimate contenders.
Outside Looking Out
A seventh place finish might still qualify for a spot in next season’s Europa League competition, and as it stands, Athletic Club Bilbao would earn that designation. Celta Vigo are only two points behind, yet it seems like that deficit is insurmountable for them.
At the time of writing, their GD vs xGD is +6.1, as they have an xG of 20.8 with an xGA of 30.9 compared to their 29 GF and 33 GA. Overachieving on scoring goals does not look sustainable, as they average 10.5 shots per game and have a mediocre expected goal per shot (xGpSH) of 0.104, indicating the quality chances they’re creating for themselves is not all that great.
Along with that, they have conceded 33 goals on defense. When you look at the teams above them, the next-closest teams are Sevilla and Real Sociedad, who have conceded 25 goals, and they have more consistent and much better defensive records.
In order for Celta Vigo to have a fighting chance, they will need much more discipline on defense, and to somehow get more involvement on offense from players not named Iago Aspas. The problem is they haven’t done anything to indicate that will happen. Aspas leads the team with eleven goals and three assists—there is a five-way tie for second with two goals. They are also very reliant on attacking down the wings and struggle to find comprehensive play up the middle. Competing for a qualification spot to the Europa League will require a massive turnaround that Celta Vigo doesn’t currently look poised to achieve.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to their show on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
