Somewhere In The Between
Has Ronald Koeman done enough to make Everton European competition contenders?
A banner reading “Time to go Roberto” flew over Goodison Park during Everton’s 2–1 victory over Bournemouth on April 30, 2016. Protests carried on inside the stadium for an hour after the match ended, demanding he and chairman Bill Kenwright be fired. After a 3–1 loss to champions Leicester City and a 3–0 loss to Sunderland on May 11, he was eventually let go, with the club touting “his utmost integrity and dignity.” I’m sure those parting words from his former employer absolutely softened the blow of getting handed your walking papers.
Who would replace the man who replaced David Moyes, promising Champions League play, and only getting as close as fifth place in the table during his inaugural season before finishing 11th the next two years? Former Ajax manager Frank De Boer was a heavy favorite, but a surprise fell upon the league when Ronald Koeman, who stated as rumors began to circulate that he expected to stay at Southampton while citing the final year of his contract, decided to take the Everton job after all. Whispers around the grounds told of his frustrations with Southampton giving him an ultimatum while being a selling club and not keeping the best players, which forced him to adjust his strategy regularly.
So Koeman got the situation he was after: a club that claims it wants to bring European competitions to Goodison Park while giving him the freedom and the deep pockets to dictate the signing of players that fit his ultimate strategy. After twenty-one matches, Everton sit in seventh place in the table, five points behind Manchester United. It has certainly been a competitive season, with the top six continually fighting in a cage match for Champions League qualifying spots. But has Koeman put the Toffees in position to contend with the big boys?
Despite a few bright spots like Gerard Deulofeu, Everton’s offense under Martinez was lackluster and uninspired. Martinez failed to produce any innovations, and his side would frequently stall out, especially in the midfield. The Toffees averaged 12.9 shots per game, which was average for the league, as well as 8.75 shots per goal scored (SHpG) and a just-above-average expected goals per shot (xGpSH) of 0.099. Surprisingly, they scored 56 goals, but it was obvious to anyone who watched their matches that they had overachieved in that category, with an xG of 44.7.
Ronald Koeman would need to instill balance on attack, which he could do through the wing play of Seamus Coleman and a healthy Leighton Baines — a carry over tactic from the Martinez era—but he would need speedy players that could also control the center of the pitch. Koeman purchased 27-year old left winger Yannick Bolasie from Crystal Palace for £24.6m and 26-year old central defensive midfielder Idrissa Gueye for £7.2m, as well as picking up 26-year old center forward Enner Valencia from West Ham on loan.
The biggest challenge was keeping leading target man Romelu Lukaku. Chelsea expressed interest in bringing back the striker they had once signed a few years prior, but Everton’s £75 million price tag squandered his return to London. With Lukaku staying on for at least the next few months, Koeman was able to cater his attack around the forward. At first, he began by pairing Lukaku with Kevin Mirallas up front, but eventually moved to a 4–2–3–1. The switch was made to give Ross Barkley a bigger role as the Number 10, though this was peculiar, since Gueye had become a large focal point and pivot for their offense.
Eventually, the roles would begin carving themselves out, and after eight matches, Everton had only one loss. However, as Koeman began to rely more on Barkley, the fluidity of their transition from defending to attacking looked disjointed and confused. Barkley began possessing so much of the ball that it made it more difficult for other teammates to get involved, and when he had a bad match and couldn’t connect his passes to the desired target, things got ugly quickly, resulting in just one win and five points in their next seven matches.
As you can see, the spacing is uneven, and there is no structure in their attack beyond not having the CBs pass between one another. Idrissa Gueye’s role has diminished to focusing more on defending rather than being the effective box-to-box midfielder he started out as. Enner Valencia has moments, but he was too inconsistent to fill Yannick Bolasie’s shoes. The result is 12.9 SHpg, 8.74 SH per goal scored, and a 0.116 xGpSH—numbers which are notably improved from the previous regime, but still hovering above average.
Perhaps Koeman’s biggest, most noticeable improvement has been the defense. A significant issue under Roberto Martinez was, despite what many couch pundits will say, a lack of organization with his defenders, who allowed too many opportunities in dangerous areas. They allowed 14.6 shots per game, with 10.09 shots per goal conceded, and with an expected goals allowed rate of 44.3, they conceded 55 goals. Interestingly, the shot quality they allowed wasn’t of a high quality—an 0.089 expected goals allowed per shot (xGApSH), while only slightly better than average in 2015, would outperform all defenses this season.
Everton was going to have to deal with the inevitable departure of John Stones, who went to Manchester City for £47.26 million. Koeman’s solution was Swansea’s 31-year old center back Ashley Williams. Though he wouldn’t start until a few matches into the season due to an injury, it was important to shore up the center of Everton’s defense, since Ramiro Funes Mori couldn’t be relied on any further than being the person who abandoned the back line to glory hunt and attempt to score goals. I would understand this mentality if he played for a U-6 team, where every kid wants to play as a striker, but not in professional football.
Has the defense been effective? Well, depending on the opponent, Ronald Koeman will go from attacking football in a 4–2–3–1, when they know they will have majority of the possession, to high pressing, counter attacking football against larger clubs. It hasn’t looked pretty all the time, and they have occasionally gotten exposed by teams who can catch them during a lapse of focus, but it has looked more organized. As a result, Everton have lost only once in their last seven matches (5–1–1) including a 2–1 defeat of Arsenal and a 4–0 dismantling of Manchester City at the Etihad.
As seen above in their matches against Arsenal and Manchester City, Everton’s opponents were relatively effective when they had the ball, but when you compare this to the ideal strategies by Arsene Wenger or Pep Guardiola, it’s clear that Koeman’s defending tactics disrupt his opponent’s game plan and makes them disorganized or one-dimensional. So far this season, Everton allow 11.5 shots per match, which is markedly better than last season, as well as conceding a goal for every 10.5 shots allowed. And they’re conceding fewer goals than expected goals anticipates from them (26.4 xGA vs 23 Actual GA)—this is despite a 65.4 Save% compared to 70% last season, but I wouldn’t want to open that can of worms.
Moving forward, Everton’s future has some promise. Tom Davies’ promotion from the youth squad has infused a much-needed spark in recent matches, and Kevin Mirallas’ form has been visibly improved this season. However, if they want to continue to have success on offense, it’s going to come down to what Ronald Koeman decides to do with Ross Barkley’s role. He is unquestionably a talented, influential player, but if he is playing the Number 10 position and is relied upon for distribution and playmaking, and he fails to have a good game, someone will need to step in and take over playmaking duties. It’s having a dire effect on Lukaku, who began the season with seven goals in seven matches, but suffered a fairly influential drought until the recent form. When players like Mirallas or Bolasie could fill in, Lukaku could play off their abilities, allowing him to create opportunities for himself or his teammates, as we can see in his four assists and 1.5 key passes per match.
As West Bromwich Albion manager Tony Pulis noted a few weeks ago, “it’ll be a record gap between the top six and the rest this year. They’re so much better… we’re not really in their league.” It will be difficult for clubs a level below those teams to crack into that top tier. Teams like Leicester City last season struck gold amidst the perfect storm of poor performance by many of the upper crust and getting supernatural performances out of their players. Even qualifying for the Europa League will require spending the new TV deal money wisely on players that fit the system, and a whole lotta luck in the shape of good fortune with team injuries and upper teams underperforming. It’s going to require spending a lot more money, but the foundation is starting to be laid at Goodison Park. And with enough patience and pieces falling into place, perhaps Everton can become regularly formidable opponents once again.
Patrick Onofre is co-creator of The Challengers Podcast, a soccer website and podcast that discusses the Premier League, the Bundesliga, and La Liga. Listen to their show on iTunes, like them on Facebook, and follow them on twitter — @ChallengersPod.
