NAFTA Negotiators Proceeding At Breakneck Pace: We Say “Godspeed”!
The busy U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer, on Sunday concluded the first round of negotiations on revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump once called the “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere.” But that was during the campaign when he was trying to embarrass Hillary Clinton over something her husband did.
And the U.S., Canada, and Mexico surprised a lot of people by scheduling further discussions very, very soon, like in a little over a week. Initially, many had predicted NAFTA renegotiation could take years. We’re not surprised. Because Trump has proven himself not particularly interested in policy, and not very detail oriented. All he wants is change to happen quickly and for him to come away with a clear “win.” Heck, he was willing to accept absolutely any health care bill put before him. Same here: he will be ready, “pen in hand” for anything that allows him to crow. A representative from the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association complains to the L.A. Times “You can have it quick or have it meaningful. You can’t have both.” Exactly.
Yes, the discussion would not be taking place in the first place had Trump not demanded it. But if you look at the “NAFTA Objectives” published by the US Trade Representative’s Office, there’s nothing wildly radical there. And only a few very significant areas of dispute. This article in Maclean’s deftly delves into that.
That’s not to say it’ll be a total cinch: one of the biggest disputes is over dispute resolution. It’s currently handled by bi-national panels. The U.S. does not like that. Another issue: boosting U.S. made content, seems closest to the President’s heart. Right now, a big-ticket item might cross borders several times during the manufacturing process in order to keep costs down. To us, that’s a sign the agreement is working. To the President, it takes jobs out of the U.S. and increases America’s trade deficit. Negotiators from Canada and Mexico are pushing back by arguing trade surpluses or deficits are not great indicators of economic health.
But as long as our trading partners are willing to swallow their dignity and their pride, and give Trump all the credit, things could progress much more quickly and easily and with far fewer concessions that anyone might currently envision, even with the accelerated timetable. The one thing Trump’s very good at is making very small victories (or even non-victories) seem monumental (as long as he’s not contradicted.) China has become very good at playing this game. They recently gave Trump a “win” on American beef exports to China, except if you look closely, all that occurred was a “reaffirmation” of a policy that was already long in place…
(This story originally appeared in “The Chaos Report” Newsletter. Please subscribe at https://thechaosreport.com/subscribe/?scr=Medium)
