TCR Brief: Looks Like Bipartisan Obamacare Stabilization Has 60 Votes In The Senate. Slam Dunk, Right?

Whoa, there! While 12 Republicans are now signed on as co-sponsors, 40 others aren’t. So even though it’d be a near-guaranteed pass, no way Mitch McConnell will bring a bill to the floor and see it pass with an overwhelming majority of Democratic votes. That just won’t happen.

• Quick recap on what’s contained in the proposal (it’s really just 3 things):

1. Resumption of the cost-sharing payments Trump cut off that help poor people pay for out-of-pocket medical expenses
2. An additional layer of Obamacare coverage: so called “Copper” plans that would cover less and cost less than the Gold, Silver and Bronze plans now available.
3. Lower hurdles for states that want to offer their own plans

• Pitching the measure on the Senate Floor, the bill’s co-author, Lamar Alexander was practical and forthright, emphasizing that people will be hurt without government relief, and it’ll still represent a “win” for Republicans.

Here’s the nattily-dressed Alexander explaining why Republicans should support the proposal:

• The Republicans signing on include some names you’d expect: Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and some you might not: Lindsey Graham, Bill Cassidy (authors of the most recent attempt to repeal Obamacare, which went down in flames).

• Over in the House, Speaker Paul Ryan is against it because he’s worried it will steal focus away from “Repeal and Replace.” And it will.

• So what’s most likely to happen? It becomes a huge bargaining chip in a year end spending bill, which then creates a dilemma for Democrats, since there will be other big issues for them in that: DACA, denying funding for “the wall”. So what are their priorities?

• And what about the White House? Seems simple to appease the President’s stated concern: It’s easy enough to add “strong” — heck, even “extreme” — language to the bill forbidding cost-sharing payments from “enriching” insurance companies, since they already don’t anyway.

(We are also probably going to have to find a way to call it something other than “Obamacare stabilization”)

Late yesterday White House Legislative Director Marc Short indicated the White House is really going to start moving the goalposts, saying the bill will have to contain things Democrats will never support like killing the individual mandate requiring everybody to buy health insurance in the first place.

• Here’s why that’s not necessarily a bad thing: if the proposal didn’t have momentum, The White House and Republican leadership wouldn’t bother pushing back on it so hard. The fact that they are is a sign they’re waking up to the idea that this damn thing (that they’ve abandoned every time another harebrained opportunity for “Repeal and Replace” popped up), has legs. It’s the only post-Obamacare health care measure that has gained popular support over time.

• And that’s also what worries Republicans: they are so bad at passing “Repeal and Replace” and now this thing comes along and could pass lickety-split? Sure it’s only a “2-year deal”. But given their abominable history of failure at killing Obamacare, there’s probably a better than even chance this is it.

(This story originally appeared in “The Chaos Report” Newsletter. Subscribe at https://thechaosreport.com/subscribe/?scr=Medium)