Brexit is an Earthquake. It Won’t Be The Last One.
The Brexit is happening. A narrow majority of voters chose to leave the EU, and since then we’ve seen the Pound and stock market plunge, the Prime Minister resign, and the opposition party thrust into a civil war. All in the span of about 96 hours.
While it looks bad for the economy and the environment, the actual outcomes won’t be known for a long time, once the internal affairs and any new arrangement with the European community is sorted out. Until then, uncertainty abounds.
What seems certain at this point is that this won’t be the last shock to the British/Western/European political system. It’s also not the first. After a generation or more of economic and social marginalization, the people are fed up. The elite consensus of the last generation is breaking.
Jeremy Corbyn. Donald Trump. Bernie Sanders. Brexit. The rise and near misses of right wing parties across Europe. Rob Ford. All different sides of the same coin.
With some notable defections, the elites of politics, business, and the media were united in their support of remaining in the EU. The reaction, from both them and many rank and file, illustrates the gulf between this group and much of the population. Leave voters are being labelled small minded (the Little England argument), and racist. It must be noted that, sadly, race and immigration played a big part in this result, though perhaps not always in the way you’d think. Yet, dismissing all Leave supporters as being of one or both of these minds ignores the many problems with the EU. It ignores the fact that one can support economic integration through means besides a supranational government. I would have voted Remain myself, but there are good reasons not to.
As Glenn Greenwald wrote, this is only the latest in a string of elite failures. Globalization and free trade has hollowed out many working class and even middle class industries and communities. The economic growth in that time has increasingly accrued to a smaller and smaller group of people. The Iraq War was launched under false pretenses, and has only made an already unstable region even more so, with its effects spilling over to Europe and beyond. The financial crisis devastated many people, but the financiers who orchestrated it were bailed out and by and large suffered no meaningful consequences. Many young people begin their careers saddled with student debt and face soaring housing prices in many communities. The dream of owning a home in cities like London, New York, and San Francisco is out of reach even for many professionals. It’s no wonder people are fed up and willing to look to alternatives.
Whether or not free trade and globalization really are to blame for the economic woes or some (deindustrialization had begun before most of the big trade deals were signed), proponents have yet to fashion a compelling response or, more significantly, a compelling alternative (beyond government assistance or handouts). Whole segments of western society have been left behind, not just by economic hardship, but by the breakdown of institutions (faith organizations, labour unions, social clubs) that once sustained them, and by the corresponding cultural marginalization that accompanies economic marginalization.
Like many political issues, Brexit saw a sharp urban/rural divide. The same phenomenon occurred throughout the US Primaries this year. The urban areas on both sides tended to skew towards establishment candidates. The insurgents did well outside the big cities, and in economically struggling areas. Big cities may be the economic engine, but they’re losing clout in what’s been a good year for insurgents. Donald Trump upended the Republican establishment. Bernie Sanders nearly did the same, dragging Hilary Clinton-the embodiment of the establishment- to the left (a better candidate or campaign with Sanders’ politics probably would have beaten her). On the left and right, candidates willing to reconsider or reject trade deals and increase wealth redistribution have found willing audiences. It’s increasingly safe for politicians on the right to be wary of or opposed to immigration. If it’s not dying, neo-liberalism is suffering significant body blows.
While I’ve focused on the failures of the last few decades, it’s important to remember that there have been many success — technological and medical advances that makes our lives better, advances in social inclusion and equality. All of that is at risk. It’s been a good generation for some people and places. The challenge of the next generation is to find space for the benefits to accrue more widely. The winners of the last generation have to help make that happen. The bankers, the techies, the Londons and the San Franciscos have to find a way to share some of the spoils. Until that happens, count on seeing more Trumps, Brexits and Bernies — and on seeing them achieve more and more success.
