Vegas, Baby
If the reports are true, the National Hockey League will soon become the first major professional league with a Las Vegas franchise. The city, home to many minor league and upstart league teams over the years (the CFL’s ill-fated American expansion, the XFL), will after many overtures, finally have a spot in the major sports leagues.
On the surface, this seems like a calculated risk for the NHL. The pros are evident — a committed, deep-pocketed owner; a season ticket drive that secured more than 13,000 pledges; the chance to be the only pro game in a market of 2.2 million people, which also drew between 3 and 4 million visitors a month during the 2015–16 NHL regular season.
Yet, questions — many legitimate ones — will persist about Vegas’ viability. By any metric, Las Vegas will be one of the smallest US markets in the NHL. As a metro area, it is larger only than Columbus, San Jose, Nashville, Carolina (Raleigh), and Buffalo — though San Jose’s proximity to San Francisco and Oakland makes it a much larger market in reality. As a TV market, Las Vegas ranks ahead of only Buffalo. Of those teams, only Buffalo ranked higher than 20th out of 30 in average attendance last season, with Columbus and Carolina notably struggling to fill their rinks. Las Vegas has had 2 minor league teams over the past 20 years, and both its IHL and ECHL teams were in the middle of the pack for attendance most years. The NHL has succeeded in some Sun Belt markets, and struggled in others.
What is true is that some segments of the media and fans will not give Las Vegas the benefit of the doubt. When Canadian or Northern U.S. teams struggle financially or with attendance, other factors are blamed — the weak Canadian dollar, ownership problems, old or poorly situated arenas. The Sun Belt gets no such slack, even when the latter two conditions are at play (such as Carolina right now). Even in Sun Belt markets where the pro team has struggled, there are successes you can point to. The Arizona Coyotes have had a perilous ownership and financial situation for many years; yet, Arizona State now plays Division I NCAA Hockey, and Auston Matthews, raised in Scottsdale, figures to be the top pick in this year’s draft. We now have a full generation of kids who have grown up in the Sun Belt with NHL hockey around. Even before Matthews, we’re seeing the effect at the NHL level.
A Las Vegas franchise will also be a boon to players and fans across the league. The temperate winter and amenities will make it a popular destination for both. Players will love it, whether they visit or play for the home team. If you’re a fan of another team, a road game in Las Vegas is the perfect foundation for a vacation or weekend trip. On a January weekend where the Blackhawks are in town, expect to see Toews and Kane jerseys everywhere. If you’re a Canadian, book your hotel and flight as soon as the schedule is announced, because I guarantee you the city will be crawling with Oilers, Flames, and Canucks fans in particular when their team is visiting, given the relative proximity (to say nothing of the many Canadian snow birds throughout the Southwest).
Off the ice, my guess is that Las Vegas will end up looking a lot like the other Sun Belt and smaller American markets. After a honeymoon period of a year or two, attendance will fall to the middle to bottom of the pack, where you find most of the teams from comparable American cities. Yes, there will be many nights with lots of visibly empty seats, and cheap tickets on StubHub for mid-week games. But there will also be nights where Connor McDavid and the Oilers pack the arena, and nothing would draw a crowd like a winning home team. Every struggle will be used by some as an argument for not having a team there, and the team will be susceptible to the same risks as the other 30 (such as an ownership group that bails, and no one else willing to keep the team). Yet, the NHL will have a market of 2.2 million to itself for the time being (the NFL’s Oakland Raiders are considering a move). It can tie in with the tourism and convention industry’s robust marketing efforts. There are risks, but there are few markets that are bulletproof. In the end, it’s worth it for the league to take a shot.
