Extreme Weather and COVID-19: The mix could be devastating for flood-risk areas
With the COVID-19 pandemic devastating our economy, healthcare force, and society, the United States cannot afford another extreme weather disaster year like 2019. With a jump of nearly $5 billion dollars, the cost of extreme weather amounted to $45 billion last year. Nearly half ($20 billion) of this was the result of flooding, which wreaked havoc on many Midwestern states. With floods on the rise, the United States had its 2nd-wettest month on record last May, second only to the flooding disaster in 1985. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the nation also experienced its wettest 12-month period yet. With states such as Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi still struggling to recover, the combination of another year of extreme flooding and COVID-19 could mark disaster for many Midwestern communities.
Although there was hope that the floods would hold out, the already elevated water levels from 2019 look worrisome for the predicted precipitation levels this year. Rivers are already experiencing flow conditions that are above the flood stage. With the highly saturated soil and riverbeds comes the concern that less space for additional water means less runoff is needed to reach flood levels. NOAA forecasters have predicted widespread flooding already in 23 states, ranging from the Northern Plains south to the Gulf Coast. The Climate Prediction Center has also forecast above-average precipitation in the central and eastern United States.
The increased levels of precipitation are direct results of climate change. As the globe has been getting hotter, each 1℉ increase in temperature corresponds to a 4 percent increase in water vapor collected in our atmosphere. As the water vapor in our atmosphere builds up, the likelihood of severe weather patterns and heavy rain elevates, multiplying the risk of flooding. These elevated flooding risks will pose a threat to many communities, with 128 million facing compounded flood risks this season, 28 million at risk for greater flooding and 1.2 million at risk for major flooding.
Many regions have already been hit by the floods, including the Red River in North Dakota, where Governor Doug Burgum declared a statewide emergency in April. The floods resulted in an estimated $7 million in infrastructure damage and placed the North Dakota National Guard on standby in case future resources to fight the flood became necessary. The James River in South Dakota and places along the upper and lower parts of the Mississippi River are predicted to have a similar flooding experience, endangering millions of Americans who live near rivers in the Great Plains and the Midwest region.
Many of the people living in these high flood-risk areas are not only armoring up for the flood season ahead but also preparing for the wave of COVID-19 predicted to hit. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, many of the people living in these high flood-risk areas are projected to be hit hard by COVID-19. This dual-threat will further exacerbate the two crises at hand and present another battle for the people, and the federal government, to fight.
The extreme cases of flooding are sure to exacerbate the already deeply-felt effects of COVID-19. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is already stretched thin by the COVID-19 response efforts and lacks the resources to fight another large-scale battle. According to Professor Piero Olliaro, Dr. Lakshmi Manoharan, and clinical trial manager Josephin Bourner at the University of Oxford, communities devastated by flooding will be left at an even higher risk for disease outbreaks. Many respiratory diseases, cholera, and malaria are often reported due to the damaged sanitation infrastructure and population displacement following extreme flooding events. This then becomes a major issue in regards to COVID-19 as the mass movement of people to refugees will lead to congregations of people, contrary to social distancing standards.
Most relief shelters are densely populated, and people generally share amenities among themselves. This type of response could prove disastrous in the case of COVID-19 as one person could quickly spread the disease throughout the entire relief shelter in a matter of days. Those in relief shelters will also face double exposure as studies show that the risk for contracting acute respiratory infections (ARI) increases nearly 4-fold in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Cramped conditions will also increase the risk of transmission of respiratory infections and will be difficult to mitigate as hospitals are already packed with COVID-19 patients.
Given that hospitals are already stuffed to the brim with COVID-19 patients, they are likely unprepared to take in another batch of victims- namely severe weather victims. Right now, many hospitals across the nation have filled most of their ICU beds with COVID-19 victims and have all available respiratory machines in use. This leaves hospitals especially vulnerable to severe weather victims as first responders must grapple with the needs of COVID-19 patients along with the needs of flood refugees. Many hospitals will also simply lack the staff and material resources to treat patients suffering from COVID-19, treat people affected by extreme weather and also practice COVID-19 protocol to prevent the spread of the virus among non-infected patients.
COVID-19 is scary enough with a bad flood season coming into the mix. With the two together, communities may experience what is known as compound disaster management — the field that works out the framework for battling two simultaneous emergencies. We have already seen the attempts of this management in Quebec, where the province experienced flooding along with COVID-19 and was forced to step back from flood management, leaving many communities to fight for themselves.
While most residents can only follow social distancing and stay vigilant for flood warnings, Congress, however, has a more unique role in this process. First and foremost, Congress must focus its efforts on supplementing pre-disaster mitigation programs. This includes subsidized funding for FEMA and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development to create these programs and aid future economic relief packages.
States must also consider facilities to be temporarily converted to emergency shelters for disaster relief in the case of flooding. These facilities should range from emergency shelters to medical facilities that can provide direct relief to disaster-weary people. These facilities must also prioritize the isolation of people who are sick and the 6-foot distancing rule, as per COVID-19 guidelines. These containment measures are especially important to attenuate the effects of COVID-19 on flood and extreme weather- struck communities.
Flooding season in 2020 is nearing a close, but the elevated water levels and continuously evolving effects of climate change continue to pose a significant threat to the flooding cases in the United States. As COVID-19 continues to remain a widespread issue and concern, it is vital that our federal, state, and local governments remain poised for disaster. An extreme weather event in our nation combined with COVID-19 could mean complete devastation for many communities and could leave the idea of containment out of the picture. Remembering to follow the CDC’s COVID-19 guidelines is essential, and the hope is that the floods will hold off long enough until our nation is prepared to fight another battle.
