Safer to fly or drive?
A big question for us is whether to visit family in California before the end of COVID. We bought an RV partly because we were thinking maybe we could just drive.
Risk is so hard to reason about. So I’m always trying to reframe it into something I understand better. One way is comparing a risk to driving. Would driving from NY to CA actually be safer given that driving is itself an inherently risky activity?
Arnold Barnett of MIT says risk of transmission on a plane is 1 in 4300. I’ll leave aside a separate question: what is the risk that he’s wrong. I’m just…