MLB Division Watch: why I think the AL Central is a Bottomless pit of Mediocrity
The bad teams are bad, the good teams are decent, but none of them are as good as they could be
The AL Central is, by far, the most depressing division in baseball. By that, I mean that none of the five teams are particularly interesting or good. And while many divisions have a few teams with abysmal projections, even the two teams at the top of the standings are underwhelming.
Ironically, most of my negative opinions about this division come from how I view its best team. Here’s what I think:
The forecast
The projections, to put it mildly, don’t look great. Per FanGraphs, Cleveland (92 wins) should win the division easily, followed by the Minnesota Twins (82), the Chicago White Sox (70), Detroit Tigers (68) and Kansas City Royals (68). Compared to the highly-competitive NL East, these numbers predict a disappointing and uninteresting regular season.
It’s pretty clear that the AL Central is a bad division. That much is obvious from the three worst teams’ records alone. But even Minnesota, looking to finish 2 games over .500, barely qualifies as “good” and will have very little chance at a playoff position.
It seems almost incomprehensible that anyone on this list will upset the favorite for first place. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is even more bullish on the Indians, projecting a 15-game advantage over the course of the regular season.
Cleveland
However, even the Indians aren’t as good or exciting as they may seem. 92 wins is a good mark, but many of those wins will come against below-average competition in division games. Additionally, Cleveland has missed several chances to improve since a first-place finish is essentially guaranteed. In short, the malaise of this division goes all the way up to the top.
The Indians’ arc as a franchise over the last few years looks good from the outside. They came within a game of winning the World Series in 2016, and fielded good teams in 2017 and 2018 (even if both years ended in disappointing division series defeats). However, the team hasn’t improved this offseason, and Cleveland is clearly a few steps below the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, and Boston Red Sox.
The team’s ownership didn’t want to spend this offseason, and the lack of close competition gave them plausible cover. The team’s apathy hasn’t gone unnoticed. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel wrote:
If the Indians can’t win with this bunch under these circumstances — and forget about standing tall in the lousy AL Central — then when can/will they? How can they compete with these AL titans, who are now as analytically sound and also are more willing and able to invest financially in the major-league roster?
To be clear, it isn’t the Royals’ or White Sox fault that the Indians didn’t spend any money this offseason. If Cleveland’s ownership really wanted to pursue a championship at all costs, they would have chased the best players, no matter how bad the rest of the division is. But maybe, if the Twins were a little better or the average team in the division wasn’t so bad, the Indians would have had to improve. As it stands now, they’re not among the league’s elite, despite being their as recently as 2017.
There’s very little reason to watch the AL Central if you aren’t a fan of any of its teams. Cleveland still has some interesting players, like Francisco Lindor or Corey Kluber, but good players are generally at their most fun when they’re in the best position to succeed. The Indians will make the playoffs this year, but they won’t be at their best. And the rest of the division doesn’t offer anything more to pay attention to.
